State Averages for President

This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Biden 38% Trump 57% +19% Mar 03
Alaska Biden 43% Trump 50% +7% Apr 21
Arizona Biden 48% Trump 52% +4% Apr 29
Arkansas Biden 42% Trump 48% +6% Apr 21
California Biden 56% Trump 38% +18% Apr 21
Colorado Biden 49% Trump 43% +6% Apr 21
Connecticut Biden 55% Trump 38% +17% Apr 21
Delaware Biden 51% Trump 40% +11% Apr 21
Florida Biden 42% Trump 51% +9% Apr 21
Georgia Biden 49% Trump 51% +2% Apr 29
Hawaii Biden 55% Trump 33% +22% Apr 21
Idaho Biden 30% Trump 62% +32% Apr 21
Illinois Biden 53% Trump 40% +13% Apr 21
Indiana Biden 43% Trump 47% +4% Apr 21
Iowa Biden 45% Trump 47% +2% Apr 21
Kansas Biden 44% Trump 49% +5% Apr 21
Kentucky Biden 35% Trump 60% +25% Apr 21
Louisiana Biden 39% Trump 54% +15% Apr 21
Maine Biden 45% Trump 46% +1% Apr 21
Maryland Biden 58% Trump 34% +24% Apr 21
Massachusetts Biden 54% Trump 29% +25% Apr 20
Michigan Biden 50% Trump 51% +1% Apr 29
Minnesota Biden 46% Trump 44% +2% Apr 21
Mississippi Biden 42% Trump 51% +9% Apr 21
Missouri Biden 43% Trump 49% +6% Apr 21
Montana Biden 34% Trump 59% +25% Apr 21
Nebraska Biden 39% Trump 50% +11% Apr 21
Nevada Biden 49% Trump 51% +2% Apr 29
New Hampshire Biden 48% Trump 44% +4% Apr 21
New Jersey Biden 51% Trump 42% +9% Apr 21
New Mexico Biden 49% Trump 42% +7% Apr 21
New York Biden 48% Trump 40% +8% Apr 21
North Carolina Biden 48% Trump 52% +4% Apr 29
North Dakota Biden 37% Trump 55% +18% Apr 21
Ohio Biden 42% Trump 52% +10% Apr 21
Oklahoma Biden 40% Trump 53% +13% Apr 21
Oregon Biden 51% Trump 39% +12% Apr 21
Pennsylvania Biden 49% Trump 51% +2% Apr 29
Rhode Island Biden 48% Trump 43% +5% Apr 21
South Carolina Biden 40% Trump 52% +12% Apr 21
South Dakota Biden 32% Trump 60% +28% Apr 21
Tennessee Biden 35% Trump 59% +24% Apr 21
Texas Biden 40% Trump 49% +9% Apr 21
Utah Biden 43% Trump 46% +3% Apr 21
Vermont Biden 56% Trump 35% +21% Apr 21
Virginia Biden 45% Trump 45% +0% Apr 21
Washington Biden 53% Trump 40% +13% Apr 21
West Virginia Biden 31% Trump 63% +32% Apr 21
Wisconsin Biden 49% Trump 51% +2% Apr 29
Wyoming Biden 26% Trump 67% +41% Apr 21