overseas voter, absentee ballot

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 247   Bush 275

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electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (109)
electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (102)
electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (36)
electoral college tied Exactly tied (16)
electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (93)
electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (40)
electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (142)
Needed to win: 270
Sept. 6 New polls: NM RSS

News from the Votemaster

Despite this being a holiday weekend, we actually have a real poll, and an important one at that. Bush has take a 3% lead in New Mexico, a major switch since the previous poll, where Kerry was 6% ahead. However, it should be pointed out that this poll was taken during the RNC and just after Bush campaigned there.

Rasmussen has started publishing a 3-day rolling average every day. For Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, (all post-speech), Bush's lead nationally has shrunk to 1.2%. Rasmussen looked at the Time and Newsweek polls we had yesterday and said the samples had too many Republicans in them. When he corrected for this effect, he concluded that the Time and Newsweek data might support the conclusion of a 3% Bush lead, not more. This observation is noteworthy because it is relatively rare when one pollster says that his colleagues blew it.

Rasmussen also just held a poll asking people if they had a favorable or unfavorable impression of a variety of people. Here are the results.

Person Favorable Unfavorable
Zell Miller 25 32
Karl Rove 14 26
Bill Frist 19 25
Dennis Hastert 19 19
Tom DeLay 18 26

Two things strike me as noteworthy. First, except for Miller who was just on national TV, less than half the people have any opinion of these people, despite the immense power all of them wield. Second, those people who do have an opinion don't especially like them. Fortunately for them, Hastertand DeLay are the only ones facing the voters this year, and their seats are safe.

There were many entries in the favicon.ico contest. It was a tough call as quite a few were very nice. I finally went with Calin Plesa's stylized ballot box, which seems appropriate for an election site. Thank you Calin.

If you are interested in knowing which candidates and parties are on the ballot in which states, a new source is www.ballot-access.org.

To bookmark this page, type CTRL-D. If you are visiting for the first time, welcome. This site has far more about the election than just the map. See the Welcome page for more details.

-- The votemaster

WWW www.electoral-vote.com
overseas voter, absentee ballot