Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 252 Bush 286
News from the Votemaster
The Libertarian and Green parties have collected the needed $113,600, so there will be a recount in Ohio. Ralph Nader is also asking for a recount in New Hampshire. If nothing else, these recounts will give us two data points for the popular vote in each state so we will be able to compute the standard deviations. We are all used to the concept of margin of error caused by the statistical sampling used in polls, but it may take some getting used to if there is a substantial statistical error in counting the actual votes.
Exit polls showed that 7% of the voters have a cell phone but no landline. Among 18-29 year olds, the figure is 20% and growing. Furthermore, this group favored Kerry over Bush by 56% to 41%. Since pollsters are forbidden by law from calling cell phones, this age group was undersampled in the polls, but the pollsters were able to correct for the omission statistically. If the number of cell-only voters continues to grow rapidly, by 2008, the pollsters are going to have a big problem on their hands.
Survey USA has made a comparison of the various pollsters on a variety of metrics. They also measured their own partisan bias by comparing their published polls with the final results. Conclusion: they were completed unbiased. I agree with their assessment.
Is predicting the electoral college easy? Apparently not. ARG had a contest to see if people could accurately predict the results. Not a single one of the 16,269 entries got it right. Even when they eliminated Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio, nobody got it right.
New Senate: 44 Democrats, 55 Republicans, 1 independent
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