Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 221 Bush 276
News from the Votemaster
The first polls are already in on the debate. The American Research Group ran three quickie polls on the first debate and in all three sample groups, Kerry won, by margins of 10%, 10%. and 18%, respectively. But I wouldn't take these instant impressions too seriously. Did you notice that BOTH candidates got the colors wrong though? Kerry had a red tie on and Bush had a blue tie on.
The AP accidentally released an article about the debate BEFORE the debate and written in the past tense, as though it had already occurred. After all, it saves time to report the news before it happens. The model here is the New York Post running a story on Kerry's selection of Dick Gephardt as vice president before the actual announcement to scoop the competition.
In regular polling, we have contradictory polls in some states. Rasmussen has the candidates tied in Michigan, but the Detroit Free Press has Kerry still ahead. Similarly Rasmussen has Kerry ahead in Ohio while Strategic Vision (R) has Bush ahead. Again, we use the most recent poll on the map although software is being developed now to average the past three polls.
I got a report of push polling in Maryland ("Are you going to vote for John Kerry even though he will raise your taxes?"). I don't know which firm it was though. I also heard that at a high school in New Mexico, about 1/3 of the students have been polled. They are having loads of fun concocting answers. Doesn't give one much faith in the polls, unfortunately.
President Eisenhower's son, John, a lifelong Republican, has switched his party registration to independent and is going to vote for John Kerry. This makes the second child of a Republican president who is jumping ship (Ron Reagan spoke at the DNC). Eisenhower does not feel he is leaving the party; he feels the party has abandoned the principles his father stood for, including balanced budgets at home and working with our allies abroad. To read his story, entitled "Why I will will Vote for John Kerry for President," click here. So far Chelsea Clinton, Amy Carter, and Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg have not announced for Bush. But they still have a month if they want to.
Projected Senate: 48 Democrats, 51 Republicans, 1 independent
To bookmark this page, type CTRL-D (Apple-D on Macintoshes). If you are visiting for the first time, welcome. This site has far more about the election than just the map. See the Welcome page for more details.