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Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 217   Bush 311

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electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (140)
electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (14)
electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (63)
electoral college tied Exactly tied (10)
electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (108)
electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (46)
electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (157)
Needed to win: 270
Sept. 24 New polls: FL IA ME MI MT OH OK OR SC TN TX WA RSS

News from the Votemaster

I goofed yesterday, as many of your pointed out. The numbers were OK, but I incorrectly said that if the Supreme Court invalidated the Colorado referendum in the scenario I was discussing, then Bush would win. Not true. In that scenario, invalidating it would give a Kerry a bigger victory. Sorry about that. To get the update on the Web by my goal of 7 a.m. EDT, I have to get up early and sometimes it takes a while for the coffee to kick in.

But the idea is clear. There are plenty of scenarios in which the election hangs on whether or not Colorado's 9 votes in the electoral college are split. If the referendum passes, it is probably going to end up in the Supreme Court, even if the election does not hang on it because opponents do not want it go to unchallenged and thus form a precedent.

One thing I did not mention yesterday but many of you mentioned is the wild swing in Wisconsin. That is indeed very fishy. But there are wild swings today too. Florida went from Kerry by 1 to Bush by 8. Even more unlikely is the change in Oregon, which went from a 12% Kerry lead yesterday to a 1% Bush lead today. Such wide swings are just not believable in the absence of major news. The only variable being changed is which pollster is doing the reporting. If you haven't checked out the pollster page, you might want to do it to see how the map is affected by who is doing the polling.

I am going to be away Saturday and Sunday. I hope to make updates both days, but I can't promise anything. In any event, I will be back Sunday and will make an update then, probably later than usual.

Projected Senate: 47 Democrats, 52 Republicans, 1 independent
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-- The votemaster

WWW www.electoral-vote.com
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Statistics Collector (via University of Kentucky)