Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 307   Bush 231

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Battleground states
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dark blue Strong Kerry (189)
light blue Weak Kerry (42)
white and blue Barely Kerry (76)
white Exactly tied (0)
white and red Barely Bush (45)
light red Weak Bush (52)
dark red Strong Bush (134)
Needed to win: 270
Aug. 5 New polls: GA IL MI NJ WI RSS

News from the Votemaster

We have three new polls from Stategic Vision, four from Rasmussen, and one from Quinnipiac University today. None of them change very much. The Strategic Vision polls give Kerry a 5% lead in Michigan, down from the 7% lead Zogby gave him two days ago and a 1% lead in Wisconsin, down from the 2% lead Zogby gave him two days ago. Thus Kerry actually has a small lead in Michigan and Wisconsin is a tossup. Strategic Vision also puts Bush 11% ahead in Georgia, a state no one will campaign in and Bush will win handily.

Rasmussen released four more tracking polls taken from July 1 through July 30. Except for Illinois, we won't use these because more recent three-day polls are available. For the record, here are Rasmussen's results.

Georgia: Kerry 42%, Bush 53%
Illinois: Kerry 54%, Bush 39%
Iowa: Kerry 48%, Bush 45%
Minnesota: Kerry 49%, Bush 42%

The Quinnipiac University poll puts Kerry solidly ahead in New Jersey, even with a large (6%) Nader vote.

To get the dates and sources for the polling data, click on the Excel spreadsheet at the top right. To bookmark this page, type CTRL-D. To help publicize this website, please link to it to improve its Google PageRank and tell your friends about it.

-- The votemaster