Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 327 Bush 211
News from the Votemaster
Friday the 13th. George Bush's unlucky day. An American Research Group poll just released shows Kerry with a 48% to 45% lead in Ohio, with Nader at 2%. The MoE is 4%, so this is a statistical tie. Nevertheless, it is large shift from the previous poll, which gave Bush a 5% lead. A Quinnipiac University poll puts Kerry ahead in Florida by 47% to 41%, with Nader at 4%. This result is consistent with the previous poll. A new poll in New Jersey puts Kerry substantially ahead there again.
Consider the significance of the map today. Kerry is leading by 116 votes in the electoral college. Suppose Bush loses Ohio and Florida? What can he do to catch up? He might win West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Minnesota, Oregon, and Maine are currently barely Kerry, but it is likely Kerry will carry them in the end. Michigan and Pennsylvania are increasingly solid for Kerry. Bush has little hope there unless the September and October jobs reports are unexpectedly stellar.
So if Bush wins West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin, the electoral college score is Kerry 294, Bush 244. If Bush wins Florida as well, he wins 271 to 267 like last time unless the Colorado referendum passes, in which case Kerry will get 4 votes in the electoral college from Colorado and still win the election. All this goes to show that without Ohio, Bush has to win all the Midwestern states still within his grasp and pray the Colorado referendum either fails or is shot down by the Supreme Court, which is probably not keen on deciding another election. Conclusion: a few tens of thousands of undecided voters in Ohio may swing the election. And remember, historically undecideds break 2 to 1 for the challenger against the incumbent.
Needless to say, if there is another terror attack or Osama bin Laden is captured, all bets are off.
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