overseas voter, absentee ballot

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 327   Bush 211

Data in Excel format
Battleground states
Info about the states
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electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (149)
electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (104)
electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (74)
electoral college tied Exactly tied (0)
electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (60)
electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (17)
electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (134)
Needed to win: 270
Aug. 16 New polls: (none) RSS

News from the Votemaster

No new state polls today. Polls are rarely released on Sundays. If you didn't check the site during the weekend, click on "Previous report" to the left of the map as there were some polls reported Saturday and Sunday. A new movie was also released. Lots of suspense but the acting is so-so.

Just so your visit today is not entirely in vain, here are the results of five national polls, for what they are worth.

Dates Pollster Kerry Bush Nader
Aug. 12-14 Zogby 47 43 2
Aug. 6-12 Rasmussen48 46 -
Aug. 9-11 The Economist48 44 1
Aug. 9-11 Gallup45 46 5
Aug. 5-10 Pew47 45 2

If you want to see all the national polls since the beginning of July, click here. In this list, of the 20 most recent national polls, Kerry has been ahead 17 times, Bush twice, and once it was a tie.

In case you missed the news, the presidential debate schedule has now been set. With the race so close, the debates could have a decisive impact. If you look closely, you will see that all four debates are being held at universities. Will this favor Kerry, who is widely perceived as an intellectual, or will it have precisely the opposite effect, boosting Bush's credibility as an intellectual? Also note that two debates are in biggest battleground states of the Midwest (Missouri and Ohio), one is in the Mother of All Battleground States, Florida, and the final one is in the Biggest Battleground in the West, Arizona. I can assure you that the chance these four particular states were chosen at random is outside the margin of error. Also, the order and format is not random. The first debate, which will get the most attention, is on domestic policy, Kerry's forte. The last debate, which people will remember most clearly on Nov. 2 is on foreign policy, Bush's strength. The one in the middle is a town hall format, which may give Bush a slight edge since he is widely perceived as a folksy, friendly kinda guy. On the other hand, audience questions are unpredictable, so broad knowledge of current affairs is a plus here. Probably neither candidate will wear a watch to avoid the most famous watch-looking event in the history of the world, the one that cost George H.W. Bush his reelection in 1992.

To get the dates and sources for the polling data, click on the Excel spreadsheet at the top right. To bookmark this page, type CTRL-D. To help publicize this website, please link to it to improve its Google PageRank and tell your friends about it.

-- The votemaster

WWW www.electoral-vote.com
overseas voter, absentee ballot