Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 286 Bush 233
News from the Votemaster
After many phone calls I finally found out why some people could not donate via the Amazon Honor System. Amazon puts a hard limit of $500 per 28 days on these accounts. Maybe Amazon does not want to be a bank, but it does charge exactly the same 30 cents + 2.9% commission as PayPal, which does want to be a bank. Maybe Amazon wants to be a very small bank. I removed the Amazon icon from the donations page, but PayPal works fine. Again, thanks to the many donors. I'll link to the ads when they start, just in time for the RNC.
Yesterday we had a University of Cincinnati poll in Ohio putting Kerry 2% ahead. Today we have a Strategic Vision poll putting Bush 4% ahead. Both polls were taken in the same time period, so they will be averaged, giving Bush a bare 1% lead in Ohio, well within the margin of error.
A new American Research Group poll of New Mexico puts Kerry ahead there 49% to 42%, more in line with what we have been seeing there in recent weeks. I think the tie that Rasmussen saw was probably just an outlier. I also have my doubts about the tie in Colorado.
Finally, According to a new American Research Group poll, Kerry's lead in Michigan has been reduced. The score there is Kerry 48%, Bush 45%, Nader 1%.
There is an amusing article about election websites in the Philadelphia Daily News. The reporter was a bit surprised that this site and a highly pro-Bush site, www.electionprojection.com have almost the same score. After all, telling the truth is so passé these days. You have to register to see the article, but registration is free.
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