State-by-State Margins Aug. 25


The numbers in the table below give the margins between the candidates. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the margin will be shown as 3%. The margin of error in most polls is about 3%, so when the margin is 3% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 77%
Massachusetts 26%
Rhode Island 24%
New York 18%
Vermont 15%
Illinois 14%
Maryland 13%
Delaware* 13%
Oregon 11%
New Jersey 11%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Washington 8%
Pennsylvania 8%
New Hampshire 8%
Iowa 7%
Hawaii 7%
Connecticut 7%
New Mexico 6%
Michigan 6%
Wisconsin 5%
Minnesota 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Maine 4%
California 3%
Tennessee 2%
Nevada 2%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 45%
Wyoming* 40%
Mississippi 31%
Idaho 30%
Nebraska* 29%
North Dakota* 28%
Alaska 23%
Texas 21%
Alabama 21%
Montana 20%
Kansas 20%
Oklahoma 19%
Indiana 19%
Kentucky 17%
South Dakota 16%
Louisiana 16%
Georgia 16%
South Carolina 11%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
West Virginia 7%
North Carolina 6%
Ohio 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Virginia 4%
Arizona 3%
Florida 2%
Arkansas 1%
States that are exactly tied: Colorado Missouri

* No state polls have been conducted in DC, DE, ND, NE, and WY, so the 2000 results are used. DC and DE are solid Democratic; the rest are solid Republican.

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