Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 242 Bush 280
News from the Votemaster
It's the day we have all been waiting for: election day in Florida. For the Senatorial primaries at least. The most recent polls say it is going to be Education Commissioner Betty Castor, a moderate in the Bob Graham mold, for the Democrats. The Republican primary has turned into a real brawl. Former HUD Secretary Mel Martinez was hand-picked by the Bush administration to challenge former Congressman Bill McCollum. Martinez, a Cuban-American, has accused McCollum of pandering to the "radical homosexual lobby." This attack led the St. Petersburg Times to rescind its endorsement of Martinez, accusing him of bigotry and hatred. The primary has national implications. Bush very much wants Martinez to be the candidate since he would presumably draw many (Republican) Cuban-Americans to the polls in November. On the other hand, the moderate McCollum has a much better chance than the right-wing Martinez of beating Castor and thus helping the Republicans hold the Senate. If you are a Florida voter, be sure to vote today. We'll know tomorrow what happened--unless the Supreme Court decides it needs a dress rehearsal for November.
We have seven new presidential polls from Strategic Vision today. In six of them, George Bush has gained and in the seventh (Michigan) there is no change. Bush has now picked up Florida by 4% (was tied), Pennsylvania by 2% (was tied), and achieved a tie in Iowa (was Kerry by 6%). For the first time since June 23 Bush has more than the required 270 votes in the electoral college.
However, it is worth noting that pollsters aren't always neutral and within the law always do what the client asks for. Strategic Vision normally works only for Republicans and results like these that contradict results from other pollsters in so many states do raise some eyebrows. The polls were completed before the GOP convention opened, so that cannot explain it, but we might be seeing the effect of the swift boat ads.
Polls have become marketing tools for the candidates. According to www.race2004.net "during the 2000 primary race Karl Rove had pollsters call Republican voters in South Carolina asking if John McCain's black baby born outside of his marriage influenced their decision on whether to support him. The question was not only racist, it was misleading. McCain and his wife adopted a baby from Bangladesh. The child isn't black in the "traditional" sense, and the baby was born outside his marriage because he was adopted."
On the state graphs the pollsters are indicated, to make it easier to look for suspicious patterns. I will use all the Strategic Vision polls, but on the spreadsheet, new polls will now be marked with (R) or (D) where there is a clear affiliation (as opposed to the CEO's personal preference).
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