Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 280   Bush 247

Data in Excel format
Battleground states
Info about the states
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dark blue Strong Kerry (153)
light blue Weak Kerry (64)
white and blue Barely Kerry (63)
white Exactly tied (11)
white and red Barely Bush (55)
light red Weak Bush (38)
dark red Strong Bush (154)
July 4 New polls: MI OH SC

News from the Votemaster

A new poll from Mitchell Research shows the race in Michigan much closer than Survey USA's poll. Probably Survey USA's poll was a statistical fluke, although the Michael Moore effect cannot be discounted entirely (Moore is from Flint, MI). We have averaged the two polls. Kerry is still ahead in Michigan, but it is much closer now.

Ohio is a horse(race) of a different color. The American Research Group poll gives Kerry a 6-point lead there, but a new Fox poll taken during the same period as the ARG poll puts Bush 4 points ahead in Ohio. That is a difference of 10 points, well outside the margin of error. We have averaged the two polls, but is seems fishy that Fox polls are so often very different from everybody else's polls and always showing Bush way ahead, even when competing polls show precisely the reverse.

Happy Fourth of July to one and all and be real careful with fireworks.

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-- The votemaster