Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 280   Bush 247

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dark blue Strong Kerry (153)
light blue Weak Kerry (64)
white and blue Barely Kerry (63)
white Exactly tied (11)
white and red Barely Bush (55)
light red Weak Bush (38)
dark red Strong Bush (154)
July 6 New polls: CA WI

News from the Votemaster

Two new polls today, but not much change. A University of Wisconsin poll ending Jun 23 gives exactly the same results (Kerry 42%, Bsh 46%) as a Badger poll for the same period published earlier. And a new Rasmussen poll in California give Kerry a 14% lead there, up slightly from his previous lead of 12%,

A far more important development is Kerry's announcement of John Edwards as his running mate. From looking at the map above, you can see North Carolina (Edward's home state), Virginia, Louisiana, and Arkansas are all close. The addition of a Southerner, especially the son on a mill worker, could put those states seriously in play. The Republicans, of course, will denounce Edwards as a rich trial lawyer. Equally predictably, the Democrats will say he got rich by helping people who were hurt by defecive products sucessfully recover damages from the companies' manufacturers. As might be expected from a successful trial lawyer, Edwards is an extremely persuasive public speaker. The contrast with Cheney couldn't be greater. No doubt every polling company in the country will be pulling out all stops to get some polls out quickly. Stay tuned.

In the past we have noticed that Fox's polls have appeared to be at odds with other polls, raising the issue of Fox's committment to accuracy. Fox News is owned by Rupert Murdoch, who also owns the New York Post newspaper. Today's Post proudly announced that Kerry's running mate is Richard Gephardt. Take a look at the front page of the Post for a high-resolution version or for a screen version. There is some historical precedent for this kind of reporting, of course.

To get the dates and sources for the polling data, click on the Excel spreadsheet at the top right. If you like this website, please link to it to improve its Google PageRank and tell your friends about it.

-- The votemaster