Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 285 Bush 242
News from the Votemaster
Lots of big news today. New state polls have been released in five states, four of them key battleground states. The most important one is Ohio. Bush has taken over the lead again, 48% to 43%. The importance of Ohio for Bush cannot be overstated. No Republican in history has ever lost Ohio and won the presidency. Almost as important is Florida where three new polls are out. In accordance with this site's policy, we use the one conducted most recently, which is the LA Times poll taken July 17-21, in which Bush is ahead 45% to 44% with Nader at 2%. Will Nader be the spoiler there again? Could be. It is no wonder that Republicans are helping him get on the ballot in several states. The other two Florida polls give almost the same results, basically a statistical tie. Florida and Ohio, together good for 47 of the 270 EVs needed to win, are the states to watch this year.
However, there is also good news for Kerry today. He now has a 10-point lead in Pennsylvania and an 11-point lead in California, up 3 points there due to slightly weaker support for Nader. The final poll gives Kerry a small lead in New Hampshire.
All in all, Kerry's lead in the electoral college has shrunk but he is still ahead, even without Ohio and Florida. It is likely that the Edwards bounce is starting to wear off. Vice-presidential bounces never last more than a couple of weeks.
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-- The votemaster Electoral college