Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 310   Bush 217

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dark blue Strong Kerry (189)
light blue Weak Kerry (33)
white and blue Barely Kerry (88)
white Exactly tied (11)
white and red Barely Bush (33)
light red Weak Bush (59)
dark red Strong Bush (125)
July 25 New polls: FL MO

News from the Votemaster

Not much news today. New polls in Florida and Missouri confirm the previous polls: Bush has a tiny lead in Florida and Kerry has a tiny lead in Missouri.

However, lots of changes to the site today. I asked Eric Paulson if he could modify the tool tips on the map to show the 2000 elections results, and he kindly agreed.

Yesterday I asked if someone could convert the old spreadsheets to the new format and seven people did it immediately. These are: Pasadena Brad, Eugene Bryton, R.D. Flowers, Steve Hendrix, R.J. Parsons, Andrew Ross, and Cliff Winterfield. Thanks to all of you. Consequently, all the maps and spreadsheets are now in the new format. A single zip file with all the new spreadsheets in both .xls and .csv format is here.

Every site worth its salt has a FAQ. Starting today, this one, too. Most of the initial questions deal with polling.

A new cartoon of the week has been installed today. A VERY funny parody of Woody Guthrie's "This Land is Your Land" is at jibjab.com. It pokes fun at both Bush and Kerry. Don't miss.

The AP ran a story Sunday saying that Bush is ahead in the electoral college. They claim that they following states are tossups: New Mexico, Wisconsin, West Virginia. In a generic sense they are, but the most recent polls in these states are as follows:

State Kerry Bush Poll
New Mexico 49 42 Zogby (July 10)
Wisconsin 48 42 American Research Group (July 15)
West Virginia 43 51 Zogby (July 15)

These leads are well outside the MoE. For the moment, Kerry is ahead in New Mexico and Wisconsin and Bush is ahead in West Virginia.

The story also says Arizona and Missouri are leaning towards Bush. Not according to the data. Here it is

State Kerry Bush Poll
Arizona 42 41 Arizona State Univ. (July 18)
Missouri 48 45 Research 2000 (July 22)

The data say these states are statistical ties. They are not leaning towards Bush at the moment. In fact, to the extent they are leaning at all, it is towards Kerry.

It is certainly true that about 20 states are going to be very close, but there is no basis for saying that Bush is ahead in the electoral college now. A more accurate statement would be Kerry has 222 electoral votes strongly for him or leaning iin his direction and Bush has 184 strong or leaning. The rest are tossups. There is no basis in current data to suggest Bush is ahead. Perhaps AP should assign a more experienced political reporter to this kind of story next time.

To get the dates and sources for the polling data, click on the Excel spreadsheet at the top right. To bookmark this page, type CTRL-D. To help publicize this website, please link to it to improve its Google PageRank and tell your friends about it.

-- The votemaster Electoral college

Electoral college