State-by-State Margins Nov. 6


The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C. 80%
Massachusetts 25%
Vermont 20%
Rhode Island 20%
New York 17%
Maryland 12%
Illinois 10%
Connecticut 10%
California 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Maine 8%
Hawaii 8%
Washington 7%
Delaware 7%
New Jersey 6%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Oregon 4%
Minnesota 3%
Michigan 3%
Pennsylvania 2%
New Hampshire 1%
Wisconsin 0%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 44%
Wyoming 39%
Idaho 38%
Nebraska 34%
Oklahoma 31%
North Dakota 27%
Alaska 26%
Kansas 25%
Alabama 25%
Texas 22%
South Dakota 21%
Montana 20%
Mississippi 20%
Indiana 20%
Kentucky 19%
South Carolina 17%
Georgia 16%
Tennessee 14%
Louisiana 14%
West Virginia 12%
North Carolina 12%
Arizona 10%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
Arkansas 9%
Virginia 8%
Missouri 7%
Colorado 6%
Florida 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Ohio 2%
Nevada 2%
New Mexico 1%
Iowa 0%
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