State-by-State Margins Oct. 18


The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C. 67%
New York 23%
Rhode Island 20%
Illinois 16%
Maryland 15%
Massachusetts 14%
Vermont 13%
Hawaii 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Connecticut 9%
Michigan 8%
California 8%
Delaware 7%
Washington 5%
Oregon 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
New Hampshire 4%
Pennsylvania 3%
New Jersey 2%
Minnesota 2%
Maine 2%
Wisconsin 1%
Nevada 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 37%
Wyoming 36%
Oklahoma 34%
Nebraska 31%
North Dakota 29%
Idaho 29%
Alaska 27%
Alabama 24%
Texas 23%
Montana 21%
Tennessee 19%
Kentucky 19%
Kansas 19%
South Carolina 13%
Indiana 13%
South Dakota 10%
Georgia 10%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
Mississippi 9%
Louisiana 8%
North Carolina 7%
West Virginia 6%
Colorado 5%
Arizona 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Virginia 3%
Ohio 3%
Missouri 2%
New Mexico 1%
Arkansas 1%
States that are exactly tied: Florida Iowa
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