State-by-State Margins Oct. 25


The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C. 67%
New York 21%
Rhode Island 20%
Massachusetts 14%
Vermont 13%
Maine 11%
Michigan 10%
Maryland 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Connecticut 9%
California 9%
Illinois 8%
New Jersey 7%
Delaware 7%
Oregon 6%
Washington 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Colorado 4%
Pennsylvania 2%
New Hampshire 2%
Minnesota 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 37%
Wyoming 36%
Nebraska 31%
Oklahoma 30%
Idaho 29%
Alaska 27%
Texas 23%
Montana 21%
North Dakota 20%
Kansas 19%
Kentucky 17%
Georgia 17%
Louisiana 15%
South Carolina 13%
Indiana 13%
Tennessee 12%
Alabama 12%
South Dakota 10%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
Mississippi 9%
North Carolina 8%
Arizona 7%
Ohio 5%
New Mexico 5%
Missouri 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Nevada 4%
Wisconsin 3%
West Virginia 3%
Virginia 3%
Florida 3%
Iowa 2%
Hawaii 1%
States that are exactly tied: Arkansas
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