State-by-State Margins Oct. 30


The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C. 67%
New York 18%
Maryland 17%
Massachusetts 14%
Illinois 14%
Vermont 13%
Rhode Island 13%
Maine 11%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Connecticut 9%
Delaware 7%
California 7%
Washington 6%
Minnesota 6%
Wisconsin 5%
Oregon 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Pennsylvania 3%
New Hampshire 3%
Florida 2%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 45%
Wyoming 36%
Oklahoma 33%
Nebraska 29%
Idaho 29%
Alaska 27%
Louisiana 26%
Kansas 23%
Texas 22%
South Dakota 22%
Montana 21%
North Dakota 20%
South Carolina 18%
Alabama 18%
Kentucky 17%
Indiana 16%
Tennessee 12%
Georgia 10%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
North Carolina 9%
New Mexico 9%
Mississippi 9%
Nevada 7%
Missouri 7%
Virginia 6%
Arkansas 6%
Arizona 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
West Virginia 3%
Michigan 2%
Ohio 1%
Iowa 1%
Hawaii 1%
Colorado 1%
States that are exactly tied: New Jersey
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