Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 252 Bush 270
News from the Votemaster
No new polls today. Now that the Republican convention is over, the pollsters are hard at work trying to figure out what it all means. We should start getting postconvention polls later in the week. Zogby's report on all the battleground states is also due out shortly.
Senate news: As of right now, our Senate scorecard shows that the Democrats are favored to pick up Republican seats in Alaska, Colorado, and Illinois, and the Republicans are favored to pick up Democratic seats in Georgia, Louisiana, and South Carolina. This result would leave the Senate as it is now, with 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 1 Democratic-leaning independent. However, these results are very preliminary and Louisiana is a special case because it has a nonpartisan election on Nov. 2. If no candidate gets 50%, there will be runoff between the top two candidates a few weeks later. For handicapping purposes, I have counted Chris John and John Kennedy as a composite Democrat called John. There is only one Republican, David Vitter, in the race.
Legal news: The Republicans have won significant court victories in Michigan and West Virginia. Rulings in these states have put Nader on the ballot. In both states he could draw a critical 1% of the vote, just enough to tip the state to Bush. There is also more political news from the bench, in Louisiana. Incumbent congressman Rodney Alexander, who was elected as a Democrat, switched parties and filed for reelection as a Republican 20 minutes before the filing deadline so the Democrats would not have a chance to field an opponent. He was instantly embraced by the Republican party and showered with good will and money. The other guys went to court and the judge said the Democrats had to have a chance to submit a candidate. This decision was reversed on appeal and the state Supreme Court just declined to hear the case. Consequently, the Republicans will almost certainly pick up a House seat in the 5th CD in LA. Moral of the story: dirty tricks work. Finally, on the legal front, George Bush will be on the ballot in Alabama after all. The state legislature, which is controlled by the Democrats, decided to play fair and changed the law to allow candidate filings until Sept. 6.
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