overseas voter registration

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 223   Bush 311

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Battleground states
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electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (95)
electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (84)
electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (44)
electoral college tied Exactly tied (4)
electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (58)
electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (66)
electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (187)
Needed to win: 270
Sept. 16 New polls: AL IL MI NJ NY NC OR PA RSS

News from the Votemaster

Several polls today give contradictory results. In states such as Illinois, New York, and Oregon, Kerry's lead is shrinking to 4%, 8%, and 3%, respectively. Bush is unlikely to win any of these states, but Kerry is clearly having problems there. In New Jersey Bush has now overtaken Kerry by a small amount.

On the other hand, Kerry is doing better in some of the key battleground states. A new Gallup poll in Michigan puts him ahead 50% to 44%. An ABC News poll in Pennsylvania cuts Bush's lead to a bare 1%, 49% to 48%, a data point corroborated by the Rasmussen 7-day tracking poll. And in all-important Ohio, the Rassmussen 7-day tracking poll also puts Bush ahead by a mere 1%, 49% to 48%. The Strategic Vision poll stays in the spreadsheet for the moment, but tomorrow Rasmussen's becomes more recent and will take over.

Conclusion: Kerry is slipping is some states where he was way ahead, but is making a comeback in the real battleground states.

Some people with black & white laser printers had complained that they couldn't tell red states from blue states on the printout. Consequently, I had my computer guru tweak the colors to try to make all four colors distinct on black & white laser printers. I hope this scheme is better for everyone.

Senate news: Oconomowoc construction executive Tim Michels won the Republican senatorial primary and will face incumbent Russ Feingold in November. Feingold is now very famous on account of McCain-Feingold. He is a bit of a maverick, but that is appreciated in Wisconsin. It will be close, but Feingold probably has the edge over the untested Michels.

Spoiler news: Lost track of Calero's status in Kansas? Want to know if Peltier's being in jail for life hinders his campaign to get on the ballot in all states? Eager to see a debate in Colorado between beer magnate Pete Coors and the Prohibition Party's Earl Dodge? Ralph Nader is not the only guy with a world-class ego. There is now a single web page that shows the ballot status of the desperate dozen, from Amondson to Van Auken, all the fringe parties in a row. This page is part of politics1.com, a great site for political news in general. It also has a message board for user comments about politics. And best of all, it is run from the Mother-of-all-Battleground states, Florida. (Just to avoid unnecessary e-mail, yes I realize that Coors is running for the Senate and Dodge is running for president, but it would still be a dream debate.)

My first ad at a university newspaper site has appeared. It is at Ohio State University, which has 48,000 voters, excuse me, students, and thousands of faculty members and employees. The ad is at The Lantern. More ads at swing state universites are in the pipeline.

Projected Senate: 48 Democrats, 51 Republicans, 1 independent
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-- The votemaster

WWW www.electoral-vote.com
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Statistics Collector (via University of Kentucky)