We have 39 Senate polls today, including a large batch from Polimetrix, but also quite a
few from Gallup, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA. Once again as a reminder, the algorithm used
for the Senate is to average all polls during the last week. The map is colored based on
The key states are Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia. I think Bob Corker (R) is pulling away
from Harold Ford, Jr. (D) in Tennessee. The racist ad worked.
In Missouri, I have the feelin that McCaskill (D) is just a
bit ahead of Talent (R), but it is too close to call, as is Virginia. Turnout will be
crucial. Here is the data.
Over in the House we have eight polls.
In AZ-08 , Gabrielle Giffords (D) is virtually certain to pick up a Republican seat
in a district that has a long border with Mexico and in which immigration was
a hot issue.
In KY-03 , it looks like John Yarmouth (D) is going to unseat Anne Northup (R),
but Geoff Davis may hang on in KY-04 due to his huge advertising budget.
In NH-02 , we may have a surprise upset, with Paul Hodes (D), beating
incumbent Charlie Bass (R). In NH-01, the incumbent, Jeb Bradley (R), will
stave off insurgent Carol Shea-Porter (D).
NY-26 looks close, but there were some methodological issues here.
Finally, quite surprisingly, in WA-08 , Darcy Burner (D) has closed the
gap with incumbent Dave Reichert (R). It could go either way.
See the details of the
House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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