absentee ballot for overseas voter

New Senate:     51 Democrats     49 Republicans    

Polling data in Excel
Battleground states
Previous report
Next report

strong Dem Strong Dem (46)
weak Dem Weak Dem (2)
barely Dem Barely Dem (3)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (1)
weak GOP Weak GOP (1)
strong GOP Strong GOP (47)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
Nov. 11 Pickups: Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia RSS

News from the Votemaster

A number of House races are still undecided and different sources give different numbers of them. It is a bit of a judgment call on these. For example, suppose the unofficial tally shows Jones ahead of Smith by 3000 votes, with 3200 provisional ballots left to be counted. Did Jones win? Probably, but if all the provisional ballots are in a district loaded with Smith voters, maybe not. What if there are 5000 provisional ballots? 10,000? This is where the judgment comes in.

Here is a brief rundown on the undecided races CQ politics thinks are still in play. In most cases provisional ballots and sometimes absentee ballots are yet to be counted. Incumbents are denoted by asterisks.

CD Democrat Republican Notes
CT-02 Courtney Simmons* Courtney leads by 170 votes
FL-13 Jennings Buchanan Buchanan by 373 votes but big-time computer snafus
GA-12 Barrow* Burns If Barrow wins (likely) no Dem will have been defeated
LA-02 Jefferson* Carter Runoff later, but both are Democrats; Jefferson took bribes
NM-01 Madrid Wilson* Rep. Wilson leads attorney general Madrid by 1150 votes
NC-08 Kissell Hayes* Incumbent Hayes leads unknown teacher Kissell by 456
OH-02 Wulsin Schmidt* Schmidt leads by 2300 votes
OH-15 Kilroy Pryce Pryce leads by 11,000 votes and probably will win
TX-23 Rodriguez Bonilla* Runoff in a couple of weeks
WA-08 Burner Reichert* Flooding has prevented the votes from being counted
WY-AL Trauner Cubin* Cubin leads by 970 votes; probably enough

I consider CT-02 , FL-13 , GA-12 , NM-01 , NC-08 , TX-23 , WA-08 , and WY-AL as undecided. I have called OH-02 and OH-15 for the Republicans and LA-02 for the Democrats.

Many people have pointed me to the Iowa Electronic Markets as an indicator supposedly better than the polls. This market allows people to buy and sell futures contracts on political outcomes. In effect, it is a form of legalized gambling with real money on the election results. At midnight on Nov. 6, the day before the election, the closing prices were as follows for the following contracts, each of which paid $1 if the outcome matched the contract:

Democrats win House, Democrats win Senate $0.30
Democrats win House, Republicans win Senate $0.54
Republicans win House, Democrats win Senate $0.01
Republicans win House, Republicans win Senate $0.17

An example in practice: suppose the night before the election you expected the Democrats to win the House and the Republicans to win the Senate. For $540 you could have bought 1000 contracts. If the result had turned out as you expected, you would have collected $1000., otherwise you would have gotten nothing. If, on the other hand, you expected the Democrats to win all the marbles (as happened), you could have bought 1000 contracts for only $300 and collected $1000 after the election. In other words, the market was effectively giving 3:1 odds against a Democratic sweep. So much for the wisdom of the markets.

I'll talk about the pollsters in the next couple of days, but just one quickie here. The prediction made by the polling algorithm I am using for 6 am. on Nov. 7, before the polls opened, got every state right, as shown here.

Projected New House:     230 Democrats     197 Republicans     8 Ties

Dem pickups: AZ-05 AZ-08 CA-11 CO-07 CT-05 FL-16 FL-22 IA-01 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KS-02 KY-03 MN-01 NC-11 NH-01 NH-02 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 OH-18 PA-04 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups:
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
If you like this site, please announce it to news groups and blogs and tell your friends about it. If you have your own blog, please click on "For bloggers" above.

-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com

absentee ballot for overseas voter