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News from the Votemaster

There are interesting developments in the House. Currently we have two vacant seats, GA-09, previously occupied by the late Charlie Norwood (R), and CA-37, previously occupied by the late Juanita McDonald (CA-37). Both districts are highly partisan, so a Republican will surely win in GA-09 and a Democrat will surely win in CA-37. But now we have a new wrinkle. An Arizona newspaper is reporting that Rep. Rick Renzi (R-AZ) may resign this week. Renzi is the subject on an FBI investigation into corruption. Renzi has already given up all his committee assignments in Congress, a very unusual move, certainly for someone who thinks he is innocent of all charges. Unlike GA-09 and CA-37, Renzi's district, AZ-01 , is slightly Democratic. If Renzi resigns, there will be a special election in a few weeks. An open seat in a swing district in such a highly polarized country will be quite a spectacle. Every big name politician in the country will be in there pitching for his or her candidate. Stay tuned to see what Renzi does.

Here are some more polling data. As usual, remember that polls this far out mean virtually nothing. A lot can happen between now and January. Also, to the extent this data has any value at all, keep your eyes on Iowa and New Hampshire. Edwards is holding his lead in Iowa and in very close in New Hampshire. Should Edwards win those two, it would be a whole new ball game with totally unpredictable results a week later on SooperDooperTuesday, Feb. 5.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney
Alabama U. of South Alabama Apr. 19 33% 25% 12% 28% 23% 3%
Alabama Capital Survey Mar. 6 35% 19% 9% 28% 23% 3%
Alabama ARG Feb. 13 44% 13% 11% 31% 19% 3%
Alabama Capital Survey Jan. 17 27% 14% 19% 20% 24% 3%
 
Arizona Arizona State U. Apr. 22 25% 20% 18% 27% 32% 11%
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Mar. 21 27% 20% 9% 25% 34% 11%
Arizona Arizona State U. Feb. 25 28% 24% 14% 25% 44% 6%
Arizona ARG Feb. 13 33% 24% 13% 21% 45% 2%
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Jan. 22 32% 15% 18% 13% 40% 11%
 
Arkansas ARG Mar. 23 49% 16% 12% 12% 21% 4%
Arkansas ARG Mar. 19 49% 16% 12% 12% 21% 4%
 
California Field Poll Mar. 31 41% 28% 13% 36% 24% 7%
California SurveyUSA Mar. 6 44% 31% 10% 41% 23% 8%
California Datamar Feb. 15 34% 24% 16% 41% 17% 11%
California ARG Jan. 17 36% 33% 6% 33% 18% 3%
 
Colorado ARG Apr. 2 34% 23% 17% 25% 23% 9%
 
Connecticut Quinnipiac U. Feb. 12 33% 21% 5% 43% 27% 4%
Connecticut ARG Feb. 6 40% 8% 10% 32% 21% 14%
 
Delaware FDU Feb. 25 34% 19% 10% 0% 0% 0%
 
Florida Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 36% 13% 11% 38% 15% 7%
Florida U. of North Florida Apr. 13 35% 20% 9% 31% 14% 6%
Florida Quinnipiac U. Mar. 27 36% 13% 11% 35% 15% 5%
Florida Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 38% 13% 6% 38% 18% 6%
Florida Quinnipiac U. Feb. 4 49% 13% 7% 29% 23% 6%
Florida ARG Jan. 9 30% 14% 15% 30% 15% 2%
 
Illinois ARG Jan. 14 30% 36% 5% 33% 24% 12%
 
Iowa U. of Iowa Mar. 31 28% 19% 34% 21% 20% 17%
Iowa Zogby Mar. 26 25% 23% 27% 25% 19% 11%
Iowa ARG Mar. 23 34% 16% 33% 29% 29% 10%
Iowa ARG Mar. 22 34% 33% 16% 29% 29% 10%
Iowa Zogby Feb. 9 24% 24% 18% 19% 17% 5%
Iowa Zogby Jan. 16 16% 27% 17% 19% 17% 5%
 
Maine ARG Feb. 6 41% 14% 17% 33% 22% 13%
 
Massachusetts ARG Feb. 6 35% 24% 19% 29% 30% 7%
 
Michigan EPIC/MRA Mar. 18 45% 29% 16% 26% 30% 21%
Michigan ARG Mar. 4 35% 30% 14% 30% 35% 0%
Michigan EPIC/MRA Feb. 4 49% 20% 8% 32% 28% 8%
Michigan ARG Jan. 7 30% 30% 17% 34% 24% 10%
 
Missouri ARG Jan. 9 30% 18% 17% 18% 31% 2%
 
Nevada Zogby Apr. 12 35% 21% 15% 37% 15% 15%
Nevada Research 2000 Mar. 8 32% 20% 11% 38% 18% 4%
 
New Hampshire Zogby Apr. 3 29% 23% 23% 19% 25% 25%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Apr. 3 27% 20% 21% 29% 29% 17%
New Hampshire ARG Mar. 23 37% 23% 20% 19% 23% 17%
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. Mar. 12 32% 25% 16% 28% 29% 22%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Feb. 28 28% 26% 17% 37% 27% 17%
New Hampshire Zogby/UNH Feb. 8 27% 23% 13% 27% 28% 13%
New Hampshire Zogby Jan. 17 19% 19% 23% 20% 26% 13%
 
New Jersey Monmouth U. Apr. 16 41% 22% 13% 49% 19% 6%
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Apr. 16 38% 16% 9% 49% 18% 6%
New Jersey FDU Mar. 4 46% 18% 10% 59% 20% 6%
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Feb. 25 41% 19% 5% 58% 15% 2%
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Jan. 22 30% 8% 16% 39% 21% 5%
 
New Mexico ARG Jan. 13 22% 17% 12% 38% 20% 7%
 
New York Siena Coll. Apr. 20 39% 17% 11% 47% 16% 8%
New York Blum+Weprin Apr. 7 49% 17% 11% 56% 15% 5%
New York ARG Apr. 2 41% 20% 16% 50% 14% 7%
New York Quinnipiac U. Apr. 2 44% 14% 9% 52% 13% 6%
New York Siena Coll. Mar. 22 43% 11% 7% 31% 20% 6%
New York Quinnipiac U. Feb. 11 47% 16% 7% 51% 17% 1%
 
North Carolina Elon U. Apr. 19 20% 20% 26% 32% 22% 10%
North Carolina ARG Jan. 15 26% 19% 30% 34% 26% 2%
 
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 37% 14% 17% 23% 21% 6%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Mar. 19 32% 22% 11% 31% 20% 6%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 32% 19% 13% 35% 18% 3%
Ohio U. of Akron Feb. 21 42% 16% 17% 36% 28% 6%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Jan. 28 38% 11% 13% 30% 22% 4%
 
Oklahoma ARG Feb. 13 40% 15% 16% 37% 21% 2%
 
Oregon Riley Research Mar. 13 31% 21% 8% 33% 20% 5%
 
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 36% 14% 13% 29% 17% 5%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Mar. 25 36% 17% 9% 33% 18% 5%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 29% 18% 11% 43% 17% 6%
Pennsylvania Susquehanna Feb. 20 42% 16% 11% 37% 29% 6%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Feb. 5 37% 11% 11% 30% 20% 4%
Pennsylvania ARG Jan. 8 32% 12% 13% 35% 25% 1%
 
Rhode Island Brown U. Jan. 27 33% 8% 15%      
 
South Carolina Hamilton/McHenry Apr. 19 31% 27% 16% 15% 24% 10%
South Carolina ARG Feb. 27 36% 25% 20% 29% 35% 5%
 
Texas ARG Mar. 19 34% 32% 11% 30% 20% 13%
 
Utah ARG Feb. 13 31% 18% 9% 13% 21% 40%
 
Vermont ARG Feb. 6 37% 19% 14% 29% 30% 7%
 
West Virginia ARG Apr. 2 37% 22% 19% 29% 33% 8%
 
Wisconsin St. Norbert Coll. Apr. 17 33% 30% 18% 26% 24% 9%

This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.

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