Apr. 25 absentee ballot for overseas voters

General Election Polls: Who Does Better Against McCain State by State?

 
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News: Updated Apr. 25


Both beat McCain ≥ 5%
McCain beats both ≥ 5%
Obama > Clinton by ≥ 5%
Obama > Clinton by < 5%
Clinton > Obama by < 5%
Clinton > Obama by ≥ 5%
 
In brown states, Obama does better than Clinton against McCain. In pink states Clinton does better.
Sometimes this means: does not lose as badly
But white centers are statistical ties.

Many interest groups rate representatives on how they vote. Well-known groups that issue such ratings include Americans for Democratic Action (a progressive group) and the American Conservative Union (a conservative group). In the table below, we give the ratings of seven such groups and the mean value for each representative. However, the ratings are not completely independent. Usually representatives who get a good rating from the ADA get a bad rating from the ACU and vice versa. If we used four progressive groups and four conservative groups, every representative would probably get a score of 50%--not very interesting. To avoid this problem, we have only used (relatively) progressive groups. If you are a progressive, a representative with a high score is a good representative (supports everything progressive). If you are a conservative, a representative with a low score is a good representative (opposes everything progressive). In this way the differences between the representatives stand out clearly. The table below is sorted on mean rating. Additional ratings from other interest groups can be found at www.vote-smart.org.

The seven groups used in this study are:

NARAL - National Abortion and Reproductive Rights Action League
ACLU - American Civil Liberties Union
ADA - Americans for Democratic Action
CDF - Children's Defense Fund
LCV - League of Conservation Voters
NAACP - National Association for the Advancement of Colored People
SEIU - Service Employees International Union

The data is available for download in .csv format so you can slice and dice the data as you wish. The ratings are for 2007. For Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), some of his votes were made as a House member before he was appointed to the Senate.

Thanks to Ramy Rahal for collecting the data.

The data for the conservative interest groups is here.

CD Rep NARAL ACLU ADA CDF LCV NAACP SEIU Mean
IL-09 Janice Schakowsky (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
MA-06 John Tierney (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
MN-05 Keith Ellison (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
OR-01 David Wu (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WI-02 Tammy Baldwin (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
AZ-07 Raul Grijalva (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 99%
CA-16 Zoe Lofgren (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
CA-23 Lois Capps (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
CA-27 Brad Sherman (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 96% 100% 99%
CA-32 Hilda Solis (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 96% 100% 99%
CA-38 Grace Flores Napolitano (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 99%
CA-39 Linda Sanchez (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
GA-04 Henry Johnson (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
HI-02 Mazie Hirono (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 99%
IL-02 Jesse Jackson (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
KY-03 John Yarmuth (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 100% 99%
MA-03 James McGovern (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
MA-07 Edward Markey (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
MD-04 Albert Wynn (D) 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 100% 99%
MD-07 Elijah Cummings (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
NC-04 David Eugene Price (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
NC-13 R. Bradley Miller (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 99%
NH-02 Paul Hodes (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 100% 99%
NJ-01 Robert Andrews (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 94% 99%
NJ-06 Frank Pallone (D) 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 100% 99%
NJ-08 William Pascrell (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
NJ-13 Albio Sires (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
NM-03 Tom Udall (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 100% 99%
NY-01 Timothy Bishop (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 96% 100% 99%
NY-18 Nita Lowey (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
NY-19 John Hall (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 96% 100% 99%
NY-28 Louise McIntosh Slaughter (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 96% 100% 99%
RI-01 Patrick Joseph Kennedy (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 99%
TN-09 Steve Cohen (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 96% 100% 99%
TX-18 Sheila Jackson Lee (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 99%
VA-03 Robert Scott (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 99%
WI-04 Gwendolynne Moore (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
AZ-04 Ed Pastor (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 100% 100% 98%
CA-10 Ellen Tauscher (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 92% 100% 98%
CA-15 Michael Honda (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 100% 100% 98%
CT-02 Joseph Courtney (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 92% 100% 98%
IL-01 Bobby Rush (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 100% 100% 98%
IL-07 Danny Davis (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 100% 100% 98%
MA-01 John Olver (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 100% 94% 98%
MD-03 John Sarbanes (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 100% 100% 98%
ME-01 Thomas Allen (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 88% 100% 98%
MO-03 John Russell Carnahan (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 96% 100% 98%
NJ-12 Rush Holt (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 100% 94% 98%
NY-06 Gregory Meeks (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 100% 100% 98%
NY-07 Joseph Crowley (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 96% 100% 98%
NY-15 Charles Rangel (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 100% 100% 98%
NY-22 Maurice Hinchey (D) 100% 100% 100% 90% 95% 100% 100% 98%
CA-05 Doris Matsui (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 92% 100% 97%
CA-07 George Miller (D) 100% 100% 100% 90% 95% 96% 100% 97%
CA-11 Gerald McNerney (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 92% 100% 97%
CA-14 Anna Eshoo (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 100% 97%
CA-17 Sam Farr (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 100% 97%
CA-29 Adam Schiff (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 92% 100% 97%
CA-30 Henry Waxman (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 96% 100% 97%
CA-31 Xavier Becerra (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 100% 100% 97%
CA-43 Joe Baca (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 100% 94% 97%
CA-51 Bob Filner (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 90% 100% 100% 97%
CT-01 John Larson (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 100% 97%
FL-19 Robert Wexler (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 96% 100% 97%
FL-23 Alcee Hastings (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 90% 100% 100% 97%
IA-02 Dave Loebsack (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 100% 94% 97%
IL-04 Luis Gutierrez (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 80% 96% 100% 97%
IL-17 Phil Hare (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 96% 100% 97%
MA-02 Richard Neal (D) 100% 100% 95% 90% 95% 100% 100% 97%
MA-08 Michael Capuano (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 92% 100% 97%
MO-05 Emanuel Cleaver (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 100% 100% 97%
MS-02 Bennie Thompson (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 100% 94% 97%
NC-12 Melvin Watt (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 96% 100% 97%
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 100% 97%
NJ-09 Steven Rothman (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 100% 97%
NY-08 Jerrold Nadler (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 92% 94% 97%
NY-16 Jose Serrano (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 100% 100% 97%
OH-13 Betty Sutton (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 92% 100% 97%
PA-07 Joe Sestak (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 92% 89% 97%
RI-02 James Langevin (D) 100% 83% 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 97%
TX-09 Al Green (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 100% 94% 97%
TX-25 Lloyd Doggett (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 100% 97%
VA-08 James Moran (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 92% 100% 97%
WI-07 David Ross Obey (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 96% 94% 97%
CA-01 Michael Thompson (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 90% 92% 100% 96%
CA-34 Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) 100% 100% 100% 90% 85% 100% 100% 96%
CA-36 Jane Harman (D) 100% 100% 95% 90% 90% 96% 100% 96%
CA-53 Susan Davis (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 92% 94% 96%
CO-01 Diana DeGette (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 96% 89% 96%
CO-02 Mark Udall (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 92% 94% 96%
CT-05 Christopher Murphy (D) 100% 83% 100% 100% 100% 92% 100% 96%
FL-03 Corrine Brown (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 85% 100% 94% 96%
FL-17 Kendrick Meek (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 100% 94% 96%
FL-20 Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 90% 96% 94% 96%
IL-05 Rahm Emanuel (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 94% 96%
IN-01 Peter Visclosky (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 92% 94% 96%
MA-04 Barney Frank (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 80% 100% 100% 96%
MD-05 Steny Hoyer (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 90% 100% 94% 96%
MD-08 Christopher Van Hollen (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 96% 94% 96%
ME-02 Michael Michaud (D) 100% 100% 85% 100% 100% 96% 89% 96%
MI-13 Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 80% 96% 100% 96%
MI-14 John Conyers (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 100% 94% 96%
MI-15 John Dingell (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 94% 96%
MN-04 Betty McCollum (D) 100% 100% 90% 90% 95% 100% 94% 96%
MO-01 William Lacy Clay (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 75% 100% 100% 96%
NJ-10 Donald Payne (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 75% 100% 94% 96%
NY-04 Carolyn McCarthy (D) 100% 100% 90% 90% 100% 96% 94% 96%
NY-05 Gary Ackerman (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 85% 96% 100% 96%
NY-09 Anthony David Weiner (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 90% 96% 94% 96%
NY-10 Edolphus Towns (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 90% 100% 94% 96%
NY-12 Nydia Velazquez (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 100% 94% 96%
NY-20 Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 96% 89% 96%
NY-24 Michael Arcuri (D) 100% 83% 100% 100% 90% 96% 100% 96%
OH-17 Timothy Ryan (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 80% 100% 100% 96%
OR-04 Peter DeFazio (D) 100% 100% 90% 90% 95% 96% 100% 96%
PA-13 Allyson Schwartz (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 96% 94% 96%
SC-06 James Clyburn (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 80% 100% 94% 96%
VT-AL Peter Welch (D) 100% 83% 95% 100% 95% 96% 100% 96%
WA-09 Adam Smith (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 84% 100% 96%
WI-03 Ronald James Kind (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 92% 94% 96%
WI-08 Steven Kagen (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 94% 96%
CA-09 Barbara Lee (D) 100% 100% 90% 90% 95% 96% 94% 95%
CA-35 Maxine Waters (D) 100% 100% 85% 90% 100% 96% 94% 95%
CT-03 Rosa DeLauro (D) 100% 100% 100% 90% 85% 92% 100% 95%
FL-11 Kathy Castor (D) 100% 100% 95% 80% 95% 100% 94% 95%
FL-22 Ron Klein (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 75% 92% 100% 95%
NY-14 Carolyn Maloney (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 84% 94% 95%
NY-21 Michael McNulty (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 92% 89% 95%
NY-27 Brian Higgins (D) 100% 83% 95% 100% 95% 96% 94% 95%
SC-05 John Spratt (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 88% 94% 95%
WA-03 Brian Baird (D) 100% 100% 95% 90% 95% 92% 94% 95%
CA-13 Fortney Stark (D) 100% 100% 80% 90% 100% 96% 89% 94%
CA-33 Diane Watson (D) 100% 100% 95% 80% 90% 100% 94% 94%
CO-07 Ed Perlmutter (D) 100% 83% 95% 100% 90% 88% 100% 94%
GA-05 John Lewis (D) 100% 100% 85% 100% 95% 100% 78% 94%
HI-01 Neil Abercrombie (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 70% 88% 100% 94%
IA-01 Bruce Braley (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 85% 92% 94% 94%
KS-03 Dennis Moore (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 85% 92% 94% 94%
MA-10 William Delahunt (D) 100% 100% 95% 90% 90% 92% 89% 94%
MI-12 Sander Levin (D) 100% 100% 90% 90% 90% 96% 89% 94%
MN-01 Timothy Walz (D) 100% 83% 100% 100% 85% 96% 94% 94%
NC-01 George Butterfield (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 70% 100% 94% 94%
NY-02 Steve Israel (D) 100% 100% 85% 90% 100% 92% 89% 94%
OR-03 Earl Blumenauer (D) 100% 100% 85% 90% 100% 92% 94% 94%
VA-09 Frederick Boucher (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 75% 92% 94% 94%
WA-02 Rick Larsen (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 80% 88% 94% 94%
WA-06 Norman Dicks (D) 100% 100% 95% 80% 95% 92% 94% 94%
WA-07 James McDermott (D) 100% 100% 85% 80% 95% 96% 100% 94%
CA-06 Lynn Woolsey (D) 100% 100% 80% 80% 95% 100% 94% 93%
CA-28 Howard Berman (D) 100% 100% 85% 100% 85% 96% 84% 93%
CA-47 Loretta Sanchez (D) 100% 83% 100% 90% 90% 88% 100% 93%
KY-06 Albert Chandler (D) 100% 67% 95% 100% 100% 92% 94% 93%
MA-09 Stephen Lynch (D) 100% 83% 90% 100% 90% 96% 94% 93%
OR-05 Darlene Hooley (D) 100% 100% 85% 90% 85% 92% 100% 93%
PA-01 Robert Brady (D) 100% 100% 85% 100% 85% 88% 94% 93%
PA-08 Patrick Murphy (D) 100% 83% 95% 90% 90% 92% 100% 93%
TX-20 Charles Gonzalez (D) 100% 83% 95% 100% 85% 96% 94% 93%
WA-01 Jay Inslee (D) 100% 100% 80% 100% 95% 84% 94% 93%
CA-18 Dennis Cardoza (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 65% 92% 94% 92%
GA-13 David Scott (D) 100% 83% 90% 100% 80% 96% 94% 92%
LA-02 William Jefferson (D) 100% 100% 85% 100% 75% 92% 89% 92%
MD-02 C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger (D) 100% 83% 90% 100% 80% 96% 94% 92%
GA-02 Sanford Bishop (D) 100% 83% 90% 100% 75% 96% 94% 91%
OH-11 Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D) 100% 100% 95% 80% 75% 100% 89% 91%
PA-02 Chaka Fattah (D) 100% 100% 75% 100% 90% 80% 89% 91%
PA-14 Michael Doyle (D) 100% 100% 95% 80% 80% 88% 94% 91%
TX-16 Silvestre Reyes (D) 100% 83% 95% 100% 70% 96% 94% 91%
TX-29 Raymond Eugene Green (D) 100% 100% 95% 90% 65% 96% 89% 91%
AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords (D) 100% 100% 80% 80% 95% 92% 84% 90%
CA-20 Jim Costa (D) 100% 83% 90% 100% 75% 92% 89% 90%
IA-03 Leonard Boswell (D) 100% 83% 90% 100% 75% 88% 94% 90%
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez (D) 100% 67% 95% 100% 80% 96% 94% 90%
MI-05 Dale Kildee (D) 50% 100% 100% 100% 80% 100% 94% 89%
ND-AL Earl Pomeroy (D) 100% 67% 85% 100% 85% 92% 94% 89%
OH-09 Marcy Kaptur (D) 50% 100% 95% 100% 80% 100% 100% 89%
AL-07 Artur Davis (D) 100% 67% 90% 100% 80% 88% 94% 88%
AR-01 Robert Marion Berry (D) 100% 83% 90% 90% 70% 92% 89% 88%
AR-02 Victor Snyder (D) 100% 67% 85% 100% 85% 92% 89% 88%
CO-03 John Salazar (D) 100% 83% 90% 90% 70% 92% 94% 88%
NY-11 Yvette Clarke (D) 100% 100% 75% 90% 80% 84% 84% 88%
NY-17 Eliot Engel (D) 100% 100% 80% 90% 85% 84% 78% 88%
NC-02 Bob Etheridge (D) 100% 83% 90% 80% 85% 88% 84% 87%
NV-01 Shelley Berkley (D) 100% 83% 85% 90% 75% 92% 84% 87%
OH-18 Zachary Space (D) 100% 67% 95% 100% 60% 92% 94% 87%
PA-12 John Murtha (D) 50% 100% 95% 100% 75% 92% 94% 87%
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) 100% 67% 90% 100% 70% 88% 94% 87%
TX-28 Henry Cuellar (D) 100% 67% 90% 100% 65% 92% 94% 87%
TX-30 Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) 100% 100% 80% 90% 80% 76% 84% 87%
AZ-05 Harry Mitchell (D) 100% 83% 80% 60% 100% 92% 89% 86%
MI-01 Bart Stupak (D) 50% 100% 95% 100% 70% 96% 94% 86%
OH-10 Dennis Kucinich (D) 100% 100% 70% 70% 80%   63% 86%
TX-15 Ruben Hinojosa (D) 100% 100% 90% 90% 55% 84% 84% 86%
TN-06 Bart Gordon (D) 100% 50% 85% 100% 80% 88% 89% 85%
TX-17 Thomas Edwards (D) 100% 67% 85% 100% 60% 96% 84% 85%
FL-16 Tim Mahoney (D) 100% 67% 80% 90% 75% 84% 89% 84%
IL-08 Melissa Bean (D) 100% 83% 80% 70% 85% 80% 89% 84%
IN-09 Baron Hill (D) 100% 83% 85% 60% 85% 88% 84% 84%
KS-02 Nancy Boyda (D) 100% 67% 80% 100% 70% 84% 89% 84%
CA-08 Nancy Pelosi (D) 100% 100%   60%     73% 83%
FL-02 Allen Boyd (D) 100% 67% 80% 90% 65% 88% 89% 83%
PA-11 Paul Kanjorski (D) 50% 100% 90% 100% 70% 84% 89% 83%
TN-05 Jim Cooper (D) 100% 67% 85% 80% 80% 84% 84% 83%
TN-08 John Tanner (D) 100% 60% 80% 100% 70% 84% 84% 83%
PA-10 Christopher Carney (D) 100% 50% 85% 100% 80% 76% 84% 82%
AR-04 Mike Ross (D) 100% 50% 85% 100% 60% 84% 89% 81%
PA-04 Jason Altmire (D) 50% 67% 95% 100% 80% 84% 94% 81%
IL-12 Jerry Costello (D) 0% 100% 95% 100% 75% 92% 100% 80%
PA-17 Tim Holden (D) 50% 83% 80% 90% 70% 88% 84% 78%
CT-04 Christopher Shays (R) 100% 60% 55% 70% 100% 84% 68% 77%
IL-03 Daniel Lipinski (D) 0% 83% 85% 100% 90% 92% 89% 77%
MO-04 Ike Skelton (D) 0% 100% 85% 100% 70% 92% 89% 77%
UT-02 Jim Matheson (D) 100% 67% 75% 80% 55% 92% 73% 77%
WV-01 Alan Mollohan (D) 0% 100% 95% 100% 55% 92% 94% 77%
WV-03 Nick Joe Rahall (D) 0% 100% 85% 100% 75% 88% 89% 77%
MN-08 James Oberstar (D) 50% 100% 75% 70% 75% 88% 73% 76%
CA-37 Laura Richardson (D)       100% 100%   26% 75%
GA-12 John Barrow (D) 100% 50% 70% 80% 65% 88% 68% 74%
MA-05 Nicola Tsongas (D)       100% 100%   21% 74%
AL-05 Robert Cramer (D) 50% 33% 80% 100% 70% 84% 89% 72%
OH-06 Charles Wilson (D) 0% 83% 85% 100% 60% 84% 94% 72%
MD-01 Wayne Gilchrest (R) 100% 60% 60% 70% 60% 68% 68% 69%
MN-07 Collin Peterson (D) 0% 67% 85% 100% 60% 80% 89% 69%
DE-AL Michael Castle (R) 100% 33% 50% 70% 95% 68% 63% 68%
IL-10 Mark Kirk (R) 100% 50% 40% 70% 90% 64% 52% 67%
IN-02 Joe Donnelly (D) 0% 50% 85% 80% 85% 76% 89% 66%
LA-03 Charles Melancon (D) 0% 50% 85% 100% 55% 84% 84% 65%
TX-22 Nicholas Lampson (D) 100% 25% 60% 90% 50% 60% 63% 64%
TX-27 Solomon Ortiz (D) 0% 75% 80% 100% 35% 76% 78% 63%
IN-08 Brad Ellsworth (D) 0% 50% 75% 70% 75% 76% 84% 61%
NC-11 Heath Shuler (D) 0% 33% 80% 80% 75% 72% 84% 61%
MN-03 James Ramstad (R) 100% 0% 45% 70% 95% 56% 57% 60%
NC-07 Mike McIntyre (D) 0% 33% 85% 80% 75% 72% 78% 60%
PA-15 Charles Dent (R) 100% 17% 45% 70% 55% 68% 57% 59%
TN-04 Lincoln Davis (D) 0% 17% 75% 90% 75% 84% 73% 59%
NJ-02 Frank LoBiondo (R) 0% 17% 50% 80% 90% 68% 68% 53%
NJ-07 Michael Ferguson (R) 0% 17% 40% 80% 85% 76% 63% 52%
PA-06 Jim Gerlach (R) 50% 17% 40% 70% 70% 64% 52% 52%
MS-04 Gene Taylor (D) 0% 50% 65% 60% 80% 64% 36% 51%
NJ-04 Christopher Smith (R) 0% 17% 55% 70% 85% 68% 63% 51%
NJ-11 Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) 100% 17% 30% 50% 70% 56% 31% 51%
GA-08 James Marshall (D) 0% 33% 60% 70% 55% 72% 52% 49%
OH-15 Deborah Pryce (R) 100% 17% 30% 70% 25% 48% 47% 48%
IL-13 Judy Biggert (R) 100% 17% 30% 50% 55% 44% 36% 47%
MI-06 Frederick Stephen Upton (R) 50% 17% 40% 70% 35% 60% 52% 46%
NY-25 James Walsh (R) 0% 33% 40% 60% 45% 64% 57% 43%
OR-02 Greg Walden (R) 100% 17% 30% 50% 20% 48% 36% 43%
WA-08 David George Reichert (R) 0% 17% 40% 50% 85% 60% 52% 43%
WV-02 Shelley Moore Capito (R) 50% 0% 35% 80% 20% 64% 52% 43%
PA-19 Todd Platts (R) 0% 17% 45% 60% 55% 60% 57% 42%
IL-15 Timothy Johnson (R) 0% 50% 35% 50% 75% 44% 36% 41%
OH-14 Steven LaTourette (R) 0% 0% 55% 60% 40% 72% 63% 41%
VA-11 Thomas Davis (R) 100% 0% 30% 30% 40% 48% 36% 41%
NJ-03 H. James Saxton (R) 0% 20% 35% 50% 75% 52% 47% 40%
NY-23 John McHugh (R) 0% 0% 45% 70% 45% 64% 57% 40%
NM-01 Heather Wilson (R) 50% 0% 35% 70% 15% 56% 47% 39%
VA-10 Frank Rudolph Wolf (R) 0% 0% 40% 70% 60% 52% 52% 39%
CA-45 Mary Whitaker Bono Mack (R) 50% 17% 30% 50% 30% 44% 42% 38%
NC-03 Walter Beaman Jones (R) 0% 33% 50% 50% 40% 44% 47% 38%
PA-03 Philip English (R) 0% 17% 40% 50% 35% 68% 57% 38%
OK-02 David Daniel Boren (D) 0% 33% 50% 50% 15% 64% 47% 37%
IL-18 Ray LaHood (R) 0% 25% 25% 70% 35% 52% 42% 36%
MI-03 Vernon Ehlers (R) 0% 17% 20% 60% 70% 44% 42% 36%
MO-08 Jo Ann Emerson (R) 0% 0% 50% 60% 15% 64% 57% 35%
PA-18 Tim Murphy (R) 0% 0% 40% 70% 20% 64% 52% 35%
WI-06 Thomas Petri (R) 0% 17% 30% 60% 50% 44% 47% 35%
FL-13 Vern Buchanan (R) 0% 0% 35% 60% 25% 56% 52% 33%
NV-03 Jon Christopher Porter (R) 0% 17% 30% 50% 30% 56% 47% 33%
AZ-01 Richard Renzi (R) 0% 0% 35% 60% 10% 64% 52% 32%
FL-18 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 0% 33% 25% 50% 30% 48% 36% 32%
MI-10 Candice Miller (R) 0% 0% 30% 70% 25% 48% 52% 32%
NY-13 Vito Fossella (R) 0% 0% 40% 50% 30% 44% 57% 32%
OH-16 Ralph Regula (R) 0% 0% 35% 60% 20% 56% 52% 32%
FL-21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) 0% 33% 25% 50% 20% 52% 36% 31%
OH-07 David Lee Hobson (R) 50% 0% 20% 50% 20% 44% 36% 31%
FL-10 C. W. Bill Young (R) 0% 0% 30% 60% 35% 40% 42% 30%
FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart (R) 0% 33% 25% 40% 15% 52% 36% 29%
NY-03 Peter King (R) 0% 0% 30% 50% 30% 52% 42% 29%
OH-03 Michael Turner (R) 0% 0% 25% 70% 10% 52% 47% 29%
AK-AL Donald Young (R) 0% 20% 30% 40% 10% 52% 47% 28%
FL-05 VA Brown-Waite (R) 50% 0% 20% 50% 20% 32% 21% 28%
KS-01 Jerry Moran (R) 0% 17% 30% 50% 10% 44% 42% 28%
KY-01 Edward Whitfield (R) 0% 0% 25% 60% 15% 52% 36% 27%
NY-29 John Kuhl (R) 0% 17% 20% 40% 30% 52% 31% 27%
ID-02 Michael Simpson (R) 0% 0% 20% 70% 5% 48% 31% 25%
NC-08 Robert Hayes (R) 0% 0% 30% 50% 15% 48% 31% 25%
FL-08 Ric Keller (R) 0% 0% 20% 60% 15% 40% 31% 24%
FL-09 Gus Michael Bilirakis (R) 0% 0% 20% 60% 15% 44% 31% 24%
MT-AL Dennis Rehberg (R) 0% 0% 20% 60% 10% 44% 36% 24%
NE-01 Jeff Fortenberry (R) 0% 0% 15% 50% 45% 40% 21% 24%
NY-26 Thomas Reynolds (R) 50% 0% 15% 30% 5% 44% 26% 24%
MD-06 Roscoe Bartlett (R) 0% 33% 15% 20% 45% 28% 15% 22%
MI-11 Thaddeus McCotter (R) 0% 0% 20% 40% 15% 40% 36% 22%
OH-12 Patrick Tiberi (R) 0% 0% 20% 50% 15% 36% 36% 22%
AL-03 Michael Rogers (R) 0% 0% 20% 50% 15% 44% 21% 21%
IA-04 Thomas Latham (R) 0% 0% 20% 40% 5% 44% 36% 21%
IL-11 Gerald Weller (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 25% 48% 31% 21%
PA-05 John Peterson (R) 0% 0% 20% 50% 10% 44% 26% 21%
CA-41 Jerry Lewis (R) 50% 0% 10% 20% 15% 32% 10% 20%
MI-09 Joseph Knollenberg (R) 0% 0% 20% 30% 20% 40% 31% 20%
AR-03 John Boozman (R) 0% 0% 15% 50% 10% 40% 21% 19%
IL-19 John Shimkus (R) 0% 0% 15% 40% 10% 48% 21% 19%
MO-09 Kenny Hulshof (R) 0% 0% 20% 40% 5% 40% 31% 19%
TN-03 Zach Wamp (R) 0% 17% 20% 30% 10% 32% 21% 19%
TX-14 Ronald Paul (R) 0% 67% 15% 0% 15%   15% 19%
VA-04 James Randy Forbes (R) 0% 0% 20% 40% 5% 40% 26% 19%
MO-06 Samuel Graves (R) 0% 0% 15% 40% 5% 40% 26% 18%
NV-02 Dean Heller (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 15% 40% 26% 18%
AL-04 Robert Aderholt (R) 0% 0% 20% 40% 10% 36% 15% 17%
KY-05 Harold Rogers (R) 0% 0% 10% 40% 5% 40% 26% 17%
TN-02 John Duncan (R) 0% 17% 20% 20% 10% 24% 26% 17%
TX-10 Michael McCaul (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 10% 40% 21% 17%
TX-12 Kay Granger (R) 50% 0% 10% 20% 0% 28% 10% 17%
FL-04 Ander Crenshaw (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 5% 36% 26% 16%
FL-06 Clifford Stearns (R) 0% 17% 5% 30% 15% 32% 10% 16%
LA-05 Rodney Alexander (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 10% 44% 21% 16%
WI-01 Paul Ryan (R) 0% 0% 15% 20% 25% 28% 21% 16%
AL-01 Josiah Bonner (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 10% 32% 21% 15%
KS-04 Todd Tiahrt (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 5% 32% 26% 15%
KY-04 Geoff Davis (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 0% 36% 26% 15%
MI-08 Mike Rogers (R) 0% 0% 5% 40% 5% 36% 21% 15%
NE-02 Lee Terry (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 15% 36% 21% 15%
OH-02 Jean Schmidt (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 10% 32% 15% 15%
OK-04 Tom Cole (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 0% 36% 26% 15%
SC-04 Robert Inglis (R) 0% 33% 5% 20% 25% 20% 5% 15%
TX-21 Lamar Smith (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 0% 40% 21% 15%
VA-06 Robert Goodlatte (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 0% 32% 26% 15%
AL-02 Terry Everett (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 10% 32% 15% 14%
AL-06 Spencer Bachus (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 5% 36% 15% 14%
CA-50 Brian Bilbray (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 25% 28% 15% 14%
MS-03 Charles Pickering (R) 0% 0% 15% 20% 5% 40% 21% 14%
OH-01 Steven Chabot (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 20% 32% 15% 14%
TN-01 David Davis (R) 0% 17% 5% 20% 10% 28% 15% 14%
WA-05 Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 5% 36% 15% 14%
CA-24 Elton Gallegly (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 15% 28% 21% 13%
CA-26 David Dreier (R) 0% 0% 20% 20% 15% 28% 10% 13%
IL-06 Peter Roskam (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 15% 32% 15% 13%
LA-04 James McCrery (R) 0% 17% 5% 20% 0% 32% 15% 13%
PA-09 Bill Shuster (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 5% 32% 15% 13%
TX-01 Louis Gohmert (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 0% 32% 21% 13%
TX-02 Ted Poe (R) 0% 0% 5% 30% 5% 32% 21% 13%
VA-05 Virgil Goode (R) 0% 0% 20% 20% 0% 28% 21% 13%
CA-49 Darrell Issa (R) 0% 0% 20% 20% 0% 36% 10% 12%
MI-04 David Lee Camp (R) 0% 0% 5% 30% 0% 32% 15% 12%
OK-03 Frank Lucas (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 0% 32% 15% 12%
OK-05 Mary Fallin (R) 0% 0% 5% 30% 0% 32% 15% 12%
SC-01 Henry Brown (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 5% 28% 10% 12%
TX-04 Ralph Moody Hall (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 32% 21% 12%
TX-24 Kenny Marchant (R) 0% 17% 10% 10% 5% 28% 15% 12%
UT-03 Chris Cannon (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 10% 28% 15% 12%
VA-02 Thelma Drake (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 10% 36% 15% 12%
WA-04 Doc Hastings (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 5% 32% 15% 12%
CA-22 Kevin McCarthy (R) 0% 0% 5% 30% 0% 32% 10% 11%
CA-46 Dana Rohrabacher (R) 0% 17% 5% 20% 10% 20% 5% 11%
IN-03 Mark Souder (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 5% 28% 15% 11%
IN-04 Stephen Buyer (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 5% 24% 10% 11%
KY-02 Ron Lewis (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 28% 21% 11%
LA-07 Charles Boustany (R) 0% 0% 5% 10% 0% 40% 21% 11%
NM-02 Stevan Pearce (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 0% 32% 21% 11%
CA-25 Howard McKeon (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 10% 20% 10% 10%
CA-44 Ken Calvert (R) 0% 0% 15% 20% 0% 28% 5% 10%
CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 5% 28% 10% 10%
GA-01 Jack Kingston (R) 0% 17% 10% 20% 0% 16% 5% 10%
IL-16 Donald Manzullo (R) 0% 17% 0% 30% 0% 16% 10% 10%
IN-05 Dan Burton (R) 0% 0% 10% 10% 5% 28% 15% 10%
MI-07 Timothy Walberg (R) 0% 17% 0% 10% 5% 28% 10% 10%
MO-07 Roy Blunt (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 28% 10% 10%
NC-09 Sue Myrick (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 10% 28% 5% 10%
NE-03 Adrian Smith (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 5% 28% 10% 10%
OK-01 John Sullivan (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 5% 24% 15% 10%
TX-06 Joe Barton (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 28% 10% 10%
TX-13 William Thornberry (R) 0% 0% 5% 30% 0% 24% 10% 10%
TX-26 Michael Burgess (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 32% 10% 10%
CA-48 John B.T. Campbell (R) 0% 0% 10% 10% 20% 20% 5% 9%
FL-12 Adam Putnam (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 5% 24% 5% 9%
SC-02 Addison Wilson (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 24% 10% 9%
TN-07 Marsha Blackburn (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 5% 28% 5% 9%
UT-01 Rob Bishop (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 24% 10% 9%
WI-05 F. James Sensenbrenner (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 20% 20% 0% 9%
AZ-06 Jeff Flake (R) 0% 17% 5% 0% 15% 12% 5% 8%
CA-02 Walter Herger (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 0% 24% 10% 8%
CA-21 Devin Nunes (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 0% 28% 5% 8%
FL-07 John Mica (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 5% 24% 5% 8%
FL-14 Connie Mack (R) 0% 17% 5% 10% 5% 16% 0% 8%
MI-02 Peter Hoekstra (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 5% 24% 5% 8%
OH-08 John Boehner (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 0% 24% 5% 8%
PA-16 Joseph Pitts (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 10% 24% 5% 8%
TX-08 Kevin Brady (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 0% 28% 5% 8%
TX-11 K. Michael Conaway (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 0% 20% 10% 8%
TX-32 Peter Sessions (R) 0% 0% 10% 10% 0% 24% 10% 8%
CA-40 Edward Royce (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 15% 16% 5% 7%
CA-52 Duncan Hunter (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 5%   15% 7%
FL-01 Jeff Miller (R) 0% 0% 10% 0% 10% 16% 15% 7%
ID-01 William Sali (R) 0% 17% 0% 10% 0% 20% 5% 7%
MN-02 John Kline (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 20% 10% 7%
MN-06 Michele Bachmann (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 20% 10% 7%
MO-02 W. Todd Akin (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 24% 10% 7%
CA-03 Daniel Lungren (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 5% 20% 0% 6%
CA-42 Gary Miller (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 20% 5% 6%
FL-15 David Weldon (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 24% 5% 6%
FL-24 Tom Feeney (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 5% 20% 0% 6%
IN-06 Mike Pence (R) 0% 0% 5% 10% 5% 20% 5% 6%
NC-06 John Howard Coble (R) 0% 0% 10% 0% 5% 28% 0% 6%
NJ-05 E. Scott Garrett (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 20% 12% 0% 6%
OH-04 James Jordan (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 24% 0% 6%
TX-31 John Carter (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 16% 5% 6%
VA-07 Eric Cantor (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 5% 20% 0% 6%
CA-04 John Doolittle (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 12% 5% 5%
CA-19 George Radanovich (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 16% 0% 5%
GA-06 Thomas Price (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 10% 16% 0% 5%
GA-07 John Linder (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 12% 0% 5%
GA-09 Nathan Deal (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 5% 12% 0% 5%
GA-11 Phil Gingrey (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 12% 0% 5%
IA-05 Steve King (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 16% 0% 5%
NC-05 VA Ann Foxx (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 10% 12% 0% 5%
TX-05 Jeb Hensarling (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 15% 12% 0% 5%
AZ-02 Trent Franks (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 12% 0% 4%
AZ-03 John Shadegg (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 12% 0% 4%
CO-05 Douglas Lamborn (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 12% 0% 4%
NC-10 Patrick McHenry (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 16% 0% 4%
SC-03 J. Gresham Barrett (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 12% 0% 4%
TX-07 John Culberson (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 16% 0% 4%
TX-19 Randy Neugebauer (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 16% 5% 4%
GA-03 Lynn Westmoreland (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 12% 0% 3%
TX-03 Samuel Robert Johnson (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 8% 0% 3%
WY-AL Barbara Cubin (R) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 10% 3%
CO-06 Tom Tancredo (R) 0% 0% 0% 0% 10%   0% 2%
GA-10 Paul Broun (R)   0% 0% 0% 0%   0% 0%

A new primary poll in Indiana shows it to be a statistical tie. Indiana is part of ye-olde-rust-belt, so it should vote like Ohio and Pennsylvania, but with a couple of footnotes. First, northwestern Indiana is really suburban Chicago and gets Chicago TV, so Obama is well known in that part of Indiana. Second, the state has a lot of typical Midwestern farm towns. Third, unlike Pennsylvania which is basically a blue state and Ohio which is a swing state, Indiana is a red state. Obama has done relatively well in other red states, but he certainly can't count on that here and both candidates will be fighting tooth and nail for this state. Hoosiers are not accustomed to being the center of attention, but this looks like their 15 minutes of fame.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama
Indiana Research 2000 Apr. 24 47% 48%

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.

Delegates

Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC
Washington Post 1593 1724 +131
NY Times 1555 1703 +148
AP 1593 1724 +131
CNN 1589 1724 +135
ABC 1587 1725 +138
CBS 1586 1718 +132
MSNBC 1596 1728 +132

Needed to win: 2024

Here is another source for delegate totals.



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