Hot House Races in 2008

Below is a list of House races likely to be top priority in 2008. Most of them meet one of these criteria:

1. The incumbent won by 2% or less in 2006.
2. The incumbent is in the other party's territory and did not win convincingly.

The first criterion is clear but the second one needs some explanation. Political analyst Charlie Cook has invented a political index called the Partisan Voting Index (PVI), which measures how a district leans. It is computed by averaging the Democratic vote minus the Republican vote for the last two presidential elections, and then subtracting from this the national average. A rating of D+3 means that the district voted 3% more Democratic than the country as a whole and a rating of R+4 means that it voted 4% more Republican than the country as a whole. The list below includes those districts in which a Democrat occupies a seat in a district with a Republican PVI or vice versa, except that any incumbent who won by 10% or more is considered safe and is not listed. For example, Nine-term Democratic congressman Chet Edwards (President Bush's own congressman) occupies the House seat in TX-17, which has a PVI of R+18, but Edwards won in 2006 by an 18% margin, so he is considered safe. On the other hand, Democrat Harry Mitchell won by only 5% in AZ-05, which is R+4, so he is considered at risk.

As time goes on, other races will be added when local events suggest a real horse race. For example, if the FBI begins investigating a representative in a swing district, that signals trouble for the incumbent, even if the PVI favors the incumbent. Open seats are almost always competitive except in very partisan districts.

Polls for House races are available as a Web page and also in .csv format.

AK-AL      PVI: R+14

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
(R)	Ethan Berkowitz (D)	Normally an 18-term congressman who wants to be reelected just has to show up. But Don Young is going to have to fight to keep his job because he is the subject of a federal investigation concerning bribes and failure to report gifts. First he has to beat back a primary challenger from Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, who is backed by Gov. Sarah Palin (R). If he pulls that off, he then has to defeat Democratic opponent Ethan Berkowitz, former minority leader in the Alaska House. A recent poll puts Berkowitz ahead of Young by 7%. Berkowitz has a primary to get through, but he is the strongest of the lot.

AZ-01      PVI: R+2

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Congressman Rick Renzi has announced that he will retire in 2009. He is under indictment for various crimes and is severely damaged goods. His retirement means there will be a battle royal in this swing district. While Arizona tends to vote Republican in Presidential elections, the Democrats picked up two House seats here in 2006: Gabrielle Giffords in AZ-08 and Harry Mitchell in AZ-05. Expect primary fights in both parties.

AZ-05      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Harry Mitchell (D)	(R)	Harry Mitchell's victory over J.D. Hayworth was an unexpected upset in a somewhat Republican district. Expect a fight in 2008. Already five Republicans have lined up for the primary, none of them stellar.

AZ-08      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Gabrielle Giffords (D)	Tim Bee (R)	Gabrielle Giffords is a first-term congresswoman who won an open seat in 2006 against a Republican so far to the right that much of his party abandoned him as hopeless. This time she has a much stronger opponent, the President of the Arizona state Senate, Tim Bee. Of course, this time she is the incumbent in what is likely to be another Democratic year. Nevertheless, this will be a closely watched race.

CA-04      PVI: R+11

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	Charlie Brown (D)	In 2006, Rep. John Doolittle defeated his Democratic opponent, Col. Charlie Brown, a retired Air Force pilot, by 49% to 46%. However, the ongoing FBI investigation of both Doolittle and his wife, both of whom have ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and his landing on the list of the 20 most corrupt members of Congress compiled by the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, got to be too much and in January Doolittle announced that he was not running for reelection. Since the district is heavily Republican, a primary fight is likely to develop here for this open seat.

CA-11      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jerry McNerney (D)	Dean Andal (R)	Jerry McNerney is a newbie to politics and won in 2006 because the incumbent, Richard Pombo, was the biggest recipient in Congress of money from convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. McNerney is an engineer with a special expertise in wind energy. He has a seat on the House subcomittee for energy and environment where he will certainly try to push the nation to use more renewable energy instead of importing it from the unstable Middle East. McNerny's challenger will be former assemblyman Dean Andal (R).

CT-02      PVI: D+8

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Joe Courtney (D)	Sean Sullivan (R)	Freshman Joe Courtney won his race by only 83 votes, but as a Democrat in a district with a PVI of D+8, he's probably safe. His opponent is Sean Sullivan the former commander of the Groton Naval Base.

CT-04      PVI: D+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chris Shays (R)	Jim Himes (D)	Chris Shays is the only Republican representative in all of New England and he hung on by the skin of his teeth in 2006. A businessman, Jim Himes, who runs a company that builds low-cost housing is likely to be his opponent. Knocking off the last New England Republican congressman is going to be a prize the Democrats will strive mightily for. In no other region of the country is either party shut out. Even in the South the Democrats maintain a presence, holding the majorities in the Arkansas, Tennessee, and North Carolina congressional delegations (as well as the governorships in all three states).

FL-13      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Vern Buchanan (R)	Christine Jennings (D)	The winner in 2006 isn't really known yet, let alone 2008. This is Katherine Harris district, where there were 18,000 undervotes. The new Congress will probably have to figure out what to do here, but they are taking their good time about it, so de facto, Buchanan effectively won. Since Jennings is wealthy, retired, and under the impression that she actually won, she has decided to run again in 2008.

FL-16      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tim Mahoney (D)	(R)	FL-16 is Mark "Pedophile" Foley's district. It leans Republican but Mahoney won it because Foley's name was still on the ballot. It won't be in 2008. On the other hand, Mahoney is a conservative Christian and may be able to hold it under his own steam. Several Republicans are competing in the primary, none of them top drawer.

GA-08      PVI: R+8

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jim Marshall (D)	(R)	Incumbent Jim Marshall (D) won his race by less than 2% in a district with a PVI of R+8, so he will definitely be targeted in 2008. So far, the only challenger is Rick Goddard (R) a retired major general.

GA-12      PVI: D+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Barrow (D)	(R)	Incumbent John Barrow (D) won reelection by 864 votes, so the Republicans will go after him in 2008, even though the district has a PVI of D+2. Several Reuplicans are competing in the primary, none of them established office holders.

IL-08      PVI: R+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Melissa Bean (D)	Steve Greenberg (R)	Melissa Bean staved off a challenge and was reelected by 5%, but the district has a PVI index of R+5, so she will have a fight on her hands this time and every time. But she is well prepared and has done it before. Her opponent in 2008 will be a rich businessman, Steve Greenberg, who owns an arts-and-crafts distributor and was formerly a minor-league hockey player.

IL-10      PVI: D+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mark Kirk (R)	Dan Seals (D)	Republican Mark Kirk was reelected by 6% although the district has a PVI rating of D+4, so he always to keep an eye over his shoulder to see who's chasing him. Marketing executive Dan Seals, who ran against Kirk in 2006 and got 47% of the vote won the 2008 primary and is the Democratic candidate again. While Seals lost in 2006, this could be a big year for charismatic young black politicians from Chicago.

IL-11      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	Debbie Halvorson (D)	This seat opened up due to the retirement of Rep. Jerry Weller (R). The district's PVI is R+1, which ensures a huge battle here. The unopposed Democratic candidate is Debbie Halvorson, President of the Illinois state Senate. The Republicans do not have a candidate yet.

IN-02      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Joe Donnelly (D)	(R)	Joe Donnelly defeated Chris Chocola in this somewhat (R+4) Republican district in 2006. He will have to work hard to hold it, but he has a decent chance. He has a fairly conservative voting record in Congress, which will ease his task. Furthermore, although four Republicans have signed up for their primary, none of them has held elective office before.

IN-08      PVI: R+9

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Brad Ellsworth (D)	Greg Goode (R)	Brad Ellsworth is a blue-dog Democrat, probably the most conservative of the three Democratic pickups in Indiana. He has a good chance of hanging on, but the Republicans would love to mount a serious challenge given that the district has a PVI of R+9. Trouble is, the only announced candidate, Greg Goode, a Ph.D. student at Virginia Tech Univ., not exactly the kind of candidate who knocks off a sitting congressman. The Hill, a Capitol newspaper, rated Ellsworth the best-looking member of Congress, with a rough-hewn look reflecting the sheriff he used to be.

IN-09      PVI: R+7

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Baron Hill (D)	Mike Sodrel (R)	As Yogi Berra put it: it is deja vu all over again. And again. And again. This is the fourth straight matchup between Baron Hill and Mike Sodrel. Hill beat Sodrel in 2002 and 2006 but lost in 2004. Hill is thus currently the incumbent. Since Hill has won 2 out of 3 and is the incumbent, he probably has a slight edge, but this is a Republican district in a Republican state.

KS-02      PVI: R+7

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Nancy Boyda (D)	(R)	This upset by Democrat Nancy Boyda (D) was completely under the radar. Nobody saw it coming in this R+7 district. But the Democratic wave was just too strong for incumbent Jim Ryun. But the Republicans will surely fight hard to get it back in 2008. Former incumbent Jim Ryun has, in fact, already said he wants a rematch. However he will first have to defeat state treasurer Lynn Jenkins in what will probably be a bitter primary fight.

MI-07      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tim Walberg (R)	Mark Schauer (D)	Tim Walberg is a vulnerable Republican freshman who beat an unknown Democratic opponent in 2006 50% to 46% despite having outspent her 25 to 1. He is high on the list of targets prepared by DCCC chairman Chris van Hollen (D-MD), who has $30 million in the bank to spend in 2008. Walberg's likely opponent is Mark Schauer, minority leader of the Michigan state Senate. Definitely a key race to watch.

MN-01      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tim Walz (D)	(R)	Tim Walz (D) pulled an upset victory here by 6% in a slightly (R+1) district. Given how evenly split the district is, his incumbency may keep him in power in 2008 though. The Republican primary has two entrants, state senator Dick Day and cancer specialist at the Mayo Clinic, Brian Davis. There will be a bitter fight up until the September primary. The winner, probably broke and bloodied from the primary fight, will then have only two months to rally the party against an incumbent.

MN-03      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Erik Paulsen (R)	Ashwin Madia (D)	This seat opened up due to the surprise retirement of Rep. Jim Ramstad. Nobody saw this coming. Ramstad was popular in his district and not embroiled in any scandals. At 61, he could have been elected another 10 times. Since the district has a PVI of R+1 and Minnesota is trending blue, the Democrats will go all out to pick up this one. In a surprise upset, young Iraq veteran Ashwin Madia won the Democratic nomination over state senator Terri Bonoff. The Republican will be state representative Erik Paulsen (R). This race will be one of the most closely fought in the entire country.

NV-03      PVI: D+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jon Porter (R)	Robert Daskas (D)	Jon Porter (R) withstood a challenge from Tessa Hafen, winning by about 4000 votes out of 200,000 cast in this relatively evenly split Clark County district (D+1). But the Democrats are likely to go after him seriously again in 2008. Their candidate is Robert Daskas, a Clark County prosecutor.

NH-01      PVI: R+0

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Carol Shea-Porter (D)	Jeb Bradley (R)	Carol Shea-Porter (D) ran as an antiwar candidate against the Democratic party's choice and won the primary. Then she surprised absolutely everyone by winning the general election. This upset (by 6%) was probably the biggest surprise of the entire election . New Hampshire swung wildly into the Democratic column, with John Lynch (D) being relected governor by the widest margin in state history, the Democrats winning both House seats and both houses of the state legislature (for the first time since 1874). The district is fairly closely split, so the power of incumbency might be enough for Shea-Porter to hang on in 2008. Her newly-elected colleague in NH-02, Paul Hodes (D), represents a district that leans Democratic, so he will have a much easier time in 2008. The former GOP occupant of this seat, Jeb Bradley, has already said he wants his job back so it will be the same two contestants in 2008 as in was in 2006, only now with Shea-Porter having the advantage of incumbency.

NJ-03      PVI: D+3

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	John Adler (D)	The unexpected retirement of Jim Saxton (R) in this slightly Democratic district (PVI of D+3) will set off a huge battle as the Democrats smell blood here. This contest will probably be the biggest single political event in the state in 2008, since the Democrats will probably win the presidential and Senate races easily. The Democratic candidate will be state senator John Adler. The Republicans have not settled on a candidate yet. The Republican primary competitors are two businessmen, a county official and a nursing student, a pretty thin lot considering the importance of this race.

NJ-07      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	Linda Stender (D)	The unexpected retirement of Mike Ferguson (R) in this slightly Republican district (PVI of R+1) will set off a huge battle as the Democrats will go after this seat with hammer and tongs. The only NJ race that will overshadow it is the congressional race in NJ-03. The Republicans have a competive primary. Kate Whitman, the daughter of former governor Christine Whitman, is one of the candidates.

NM-01      PVI: D+2

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Darren White (R)	(D)	In 2006, this was an extraordinarily close race in a swing state. State Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D) lost by only 1000 votes to incumbent Heather Wilson. Now Wilson is running for the Senate, so this is an open seat and will be very competitive. Several high-profile Democrats are in a primary fight. The Republican candidate will probably be Bernalillo County sheriff Darren White.

NY-19      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Hall (D)	Kieran Lalor (R)	Challenger John Hall (D) wasn't expected to win in this Hudson Valley district, but a hugely successful grass roots effort put him over the top by about 2%. The district is R+1, so as an incumbent, he has a good chance of being reelected in 2008. So far the only Republican in the race is Kieran Lalor, an Iraq veteran.

NY-20      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	Sandy Treadwell (R)	Kirsten Gillibrand pulled of a surprise win in this slightly Republican part of the upper Hudson Valley. Her win was partly due to her opponent, John Sweeney, beating his wife and having her call 911. She won't be able to count on such good luck this time. But this time she will be the incumbent and the power of incumbency may be enough to offset the slight partisan edge (R+3) the Republicans have. She is raising money like there is no tomorrow and already has well over $2 million cash on hand. Her opponent is likely to be Sandy Treadwell (R), former chairman of the New York State Republican Party, although Treadwell must first dispatch a couple of minor opponents in the primary, which may use of some of the $750,000 cash he has on hand.

NY-24      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mike Arcuri (D)	(R)	This was an open seat in a neutral district. The Republicans shot themselves in the foot by producing an ad accusing Mike Arcuri of calling a sex line and charging it to the taxpayers. While the charge was technically true, it was perfectly clear that he misdialed the number, hung up within 10 seconds, and dialed the number he meant to, which was off by one digit. Arcuri refuted the charge by producing the phone bill showing the two numbers called a few seconds apart. It will be difficult for the Republicans to get this one back, but they will surely try.

NY-25      PVI: D+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
(R)	Dan Maffei (D)	Incumbent Jim Walsh (R) beat back a challenge from novice Dan Maffei (D) by beating him by just under 4000 votes in this slightly (D+3) Democratic district around Syracuse. Maffei has announced he is running again in 2008, but Walsh dropped out of the race in January 2008. Now far more experienced, Maffei has a good chance in this district that Kerry carried in 2004, albeit by a 2% margin. The only announced Republican candidate is Peter Cappuccilli, former director of the state fair, but it is possible that someone with a bit stronger credentials will still enter.

NY-26      PVI: R+3

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	Jon Powers (D)	Tom Reynolds has represented a conservative district in Western New York hard by the Canadian border for four terms. In 2008 he decided to retire. The Democrats have a strong candidate in Iraq war veteran, Jon Powers. However, Powers first has to defeat perennial candidate Jack Davis, a millionaire industrialist.

NY-29      PVI: R+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Randy Kuhl (R)	Eric Massa (D)	This race is a rerun of the 2006 one, which Kuhl won by 6000 votes out of 206,000 votes cast. It pits sophomore congressman Randy Kuhl against 24-year Navy veteran Eric Massa. The district has a definite Republican tilt to it, but Massa's surprisingly good showing in his first run for public office, his long military service, and DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen's bulging bank account will make this district a battleground.

NC-08      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Robin Hayes (R)	Larry Kissell (D)	Incumbent Robin Hayes won this race by 329 votes against a totally unknown high school teacher, Larry Kissell. This time, with some help from the DCCC, Kissell might be able to finish the job.

NC-11      PVI: R+7

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Heath Shuler (D)	(R)	This district is heavily Republican (R+7), but Heath Shuler is a famous football star, which is why he won in the first place. Add to this the power of incumbency, and it will be tough to dislodge anybody his size. No heavyweight Republicans have announced so far.

OH-01      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Steve Chabot (R)	Steve Driehaus (D)	Congressman Steve Chabot was elected to a seventh term in 2006 53% to 47% against a relatively unknown challenger. This time he is likely to face the minority whip of the Ohio state House, Steve Driehaus. With the DCCC flush with funds and Chabot facing an experienced politician, this race in an evenly split district will draw a lot of attention.

OH-02      PVI: R+13

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jean Schmidt (R)	Victoria Wulsin (D)	Although this is one of the most Republican districts in Ohio (R+13), freshman Jean Schmidt defeated physician Victoria Wulsin by fewer than 3000 votes out of 225,000 votes cast. Despite the Republican tilt of the district, with Schmidt doing so badly, the Democrats are likely to go after her again in 2008. Wulsin won her primary so the two will face off again.

OH-15      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Steve Stivers (R)	Mary-Jo Kilroy (D)	This seat is held by Deborah Pryce, a 9-term congresswoman who is #4 in the House leadership. In August 2007, she announced that is returning to Ohio to spend more time with her family. In her announcement, she did not mention anything about the fact that an unknown local county commissioner, Mary Jo Kilroy came within 3500 votes of unseating her in 2006 (out of over 200,000 votes cast). Kilroy is running again. Her likely opponent is state senator Steve Stivers.

OH-16      PVI: R+4

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Kirk Schuring (R)	John Boccieri (D)	This seat is held by Ralph Regula, who is retiring. The Democratic nominee is state senator John Boccieri. The Republican nominee is also a state senator, Kirk Schuring. This is a top-tier race and will be closely watched.

OH-18      PVI: R+6

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Zack Space (D)	Fred Dailey (R)	OH-18 is a decidedly (R+6) Republican district. The seat was formerly occupied by Bob Ney, who resigned in disgrace, but not before managing to get his favorite candidate to replace him. She was tainted from the start. This time there was a primary and the winner was Fred Dailey, the director of the Ohio Dept. of Agriculture, an appointed office. He has never run for elective office before, but since the district tilts Republican, he should give Space a good run for his money.

OR-05      PVI: D+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	Mike Erickson (R)	Darlene Hooley's surprise retirement has left the Democrats frantically looking for a candidate in this swing district. Contenders include former state senator Kurt Schrader, Steve Marks, the former chief of staff to Gov. Kitzhaber, and a couple of unknowns. The Republican candidate, Mike Erickson, is a rich businessman who ran in 2006 and got 43% of the vote.

PA-04      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jason Altmire (D)	Melissa Hart (R)	Jason Altmire is another surprise winner, as nobody was paying much attention to this district before the election despite is relatively even balance (R+3). In 2008, everyone will be paying attention to it. The person Altmire defeated, Melissa Hart, is going to try to get her job back.

PA-06      PVI: D+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jim Gerlach (R)	Bob Roggio (D)	The incumbent, Jim Gerlach, won an extremely close contest with Lois Murphy, beating her by only 3001 votes, but she is not running this time. Instead, the Democratic candidate will be retired businessman Bob Roggio.

PA-10      PVI: R+8

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chris Carney (D)	Chris Hackett (R)	PA-10 is the district whose congressman, Don Sherwood, had a long-running affair with a young Peruvian immigrant 35 years his junior. Then he choked her and she called 911. End of Sherwood. But given the Republican tilt of the district (R+8), the Republicans will try hard to get it back. The Republican nominee is a rich businessman, Chris Hackett, who owns a temporary employment agency. He will try very hard to make sure incumbent Carney's current employment is temporary. With the district tilting so far to the Republicans, this is one of the GOP's best hopes to knock off an incumbent Democrat.

TX-22      PVI: R+15

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Nick Lampson (D)	(R)	This is Tom DeLay's district. Nick Lampson won, in part, because in 2006 his opponent had to run a write-in campaign as a result of a court decision that did not allow DeLay to change his residence to Virginia and get off the ballot. This time Lampson will face a serious challenge in this heavily Republican district. In fact, no fewer than 10 people have filed to run in the Republican primary.

TX-23      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Ciro Rodriguez (D)	Lyle Larson (R)	In a surprise upset, Ciro Rodriguez defeated incumbent Henry Bonilla (R) in a runoff election in 2006. The district is very heavily Latino and unless the Republicans can find a Latino who dislikes Robert Frost ("Good fences make good neighbors"), Rodriguez will probably hang on. Apparently no Latino wanted to make the run, so the very Anglo Kyle Larson, a rich businessman got the nomination. He's got his work cut out for him convincing poor Mexican-Americans that's he's better for them than Rodriguez.

VA-11      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	Keith Fimian (R)	In a surprise move, Rep. Tom Davis (R) announced he is not running for reelection. Northern Virginia is trending Democratic in recent years and this district is just about evenly split between the parties. It is going to become a huge battleground as the Democrats smell a pickup here. State senator Leslie Byrne and Fairfax County Supervisor Gerry Connolly are competing in the Democratic primary. Byrne ran for Lt. Governor in 2005 and lost, but she swept VA-11. The unchallenged Republican candidate is a rich local businessman, Keith Fimian.

WA-08      PVI: D+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dave Reichert (R)	Darcy Burner (D)	Incumbent Dave Reichert (R) beat back a fierce challenge from Microsoft manager Darcy Burner, ultimately winning by 7300 votes out of 250,000 cast. The district, in the eastern Seattle suburbs, leans slightly Democratic (D+2), but that wasn't quite enough to overcome the power of incumbency. Burner is challenging Reichert again in 2008 and has been outraising him this time.

WI-08      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Steve Kagen (D)	(R)	Steve Kagen is a physician who won a surprising victory in this moderately Republican district (R+4). He might have to fight for it, but so far no Republican has filed to challenge him.