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News: Updated Feb. 04


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News from the Votemaster

One more day to go. On the Republican side, the right-wing talkers like Rush Limbaugh, Michelle Malkin, Laura Ingraham, Ann Coulter, and Sean Hannity are going absolutely ape dissing John McCain, but to no avail. Rank-and-file Republicans seem to like him and he appears to be cruising towards the nomination tomorrow. He is without a doubt the strongest Republican candidate in the general election. It will be interesting to see how all of McCain's long-time opponents behave if he is nominated. Will they close ranks behind him or go off and sulk. Is ideological purity more important than winning? Usually it's the Democrats who get involved in this type of internal battle, but this year is different.

The Democratic nomination contest is getting tighter. Several polls show Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a statistical tie in California. Winning that one would be a huge boost to Obama's candidacy, even if he gets only a slightly large number of delegates. One thing is increasingly clear: it won't be all over tomorrow for the Democrats. Barring something very unusual, the race will continue into February and probably beyond.

On the subject of winning, what exactly does that mean? Getting more votes nationwide? Getting more delegates? Winning a plurality in more states? Winning a set of states with more electoral votes than your opponent? Expect both sides to claim victory based on one or more of these metrics. In case you forgot already, both sides claimed victory in the Nevada caucuses, using different criteria. Expect more of the same Wednesday.

While hotly contested Democratic primaries are nothing new, this one is different because the candidates are in virtually total agreement on all the issues. As a consequence, many couples, families and friends are split, as reported in the NY Times. A long, drawn-out primary fight, possibly ending with a credentials fight at the Denver convention would dim Democrats hopes of regaining the White House, with each side blaming the other.

Here are today's polls.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Arizona Mason-Dixon Feb. 1 43% 41%        
California ARG Feb. 2 47% 39% 32% 33% 16% 8%
California Mason-Dixon Feb. 1 45% 36% 40% 31% 13% 3%
California Rasmussen Feb. 2 44% 45% 38% 38% 10% 6%
California Suffolk U. Feb. 3 40% 39%        
Georgia Insider Advantage Feb. 2 36% 51% 29% 30% 28% 2%
Georgia Mason-Dixon Feb. 1 41% 47% 33% 27% 18% 4%
Georgia Rasmussen Feb. 2 37% 52% 31% 29% 28% 6%
Illinois Market Shares Jan. 31 24% 55% 43% 20% 15% 4%
Missouri Mason-Dixon Feb. 1 47% 41% 37% 24% 27% 1%
New Jersey Mason-Dixon Feb. 1 46% 39% 46% 31% 5% 4%
Oklahoma Sooner Poll Jan. 30 41% 17% 40% 17% 19% 3%
Tennessee Insider Advantage Feb. 2 55% 35% 32% 22% 30% 6%
Utah Dan Jones Feb. 1 29% 53% 4% 84%    

If we collect all the January and February polls and average all the polls within a week of the most recent one, here is what we get.

Democrats

State Clinton Obama Date Pollster
Alabama 43 42 Jan 31 Insid+Surve+Capit
Arizona 44 40 Feb 01 Mason+Rasmu
California 43 41 Feb 03 Six polls
Colorado 32 34 Jan 23 Mason-Dixon
Connecticut 44 41 Jan 31 ARG+Surve+Rasmu
Delaware 44 42 Feb 01 ARG
Georgia 36 50 Feb 02 Five polls
Illinois 29 55 Jan 31 Marke+ARG-1+Rasmu
Massachusetts 50 35 Jan 30 Surve+Rasmu
Minnesota 40 33 Jan 27 U. of Minnesota
Missouri 46 42 Feb 02 Five polls
New Jersey 48 39 Feb 02 Five polls
New York 54 35 Feb 01 Four polls
Oklahoma 43 18 Jan 30 Soone+Surve
Tennessee 50 32 Feb 02 Four polls
Utah 29 53 Feb 01 Dan Jones


Republicans

State McCain Romney Date Pollster
Alabama 37 18 Jan 31 Four polls
Arizona 43 34 Jan 31 Rasmussen
California 36 30 Feb 02 Many polls
Colorado 24 43 Jan 23 Mason-Dixon
Connecticut 46 27 Jan 31 ARG+Surve+Rasmu
Delaware 41 35 Feb 01 ARG
Georgia 32 30 Feb 02 Four polls
Illinois 42 27 Jan 31 Marke+ARG-1+Rasmu
Massachusetts 29 56 Jan 30 Surve+Rasmu
Minnesota 41 17 Jan 27 U. of Minnesota
Missouri 34 26 Feb 02 Five polls
New Jersey 49 26 Feb 02 Five polls
New York 54 25 Feb 02 Four polls
Oklahoma 39 18 Jan 30 Soone+Surve
Tennessee 30 22 Feb 02 Four polls
Utah 4 84 Feb 01 Dan Jones

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the Democrats and for the Republicans. Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and other unpledged delegates. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently. Here is CNN's count:

Delegates

Clinton 232 Obama 158     Needed: 2025
McCain 97 Romney 92 Huckabee 29 Paul 6 Needed: 1191


-- The Votemaster
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