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REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES 2008 Click for Democratic primaries and caucuses

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News from the Votemaster

It is quiet on the presidential election front right now, so let's take a look at Congress. Incumbents running for reelection are hard to defeat. About 90% of incumbents win, barring some kind of major scandal. Most changes in party affiliation happen when a seat is open due to a retirement, resignation, or death. In that light, let us look at seats where the person elected at the previous election is not running in 2008. First the Senate, then the House.

Five sitting senators elected in 2002, all Republicans, are not running for reelection. They are Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO), Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID), Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM), and Sen. John Warner (R-VA). In addition, Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) resigned from the Senate and was replaced by Rep. Roger Wicker, who has to stand for election in 2008. Sen. Craig Thomas (R-WY) died last year and was replaced by John Barrasso. He also has to stand for election in 2008. Thus the Republicans must defend five open seats and two appointed seats. It is likely they can hold Wyoming, Idaho, Mississippi, and Nebraska easily, but there will be huge fights in Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico. At this point, Democratic challenger Mark Warner is the odds-on favorite in Virginia, and the Democrats have good chances of picking up the other two as well. Combined with incumbents facing tough races in Oregon, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine, this looks like a bad year for the GOP in the Senate. For details of all 34 Senate races, go to our Senate page.

Here is a table showing the House seats where the person elected in 2006 will not be running in 2008. The PVI is Charlie Cook's index of how partisan a district is. A PVI of D+22 means that the districted voted 22% more Democratic than the country as a whole in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections.

District Incumbent Party PVI Reason for departure
CA-12 Tom Lantos Dem D+22 Has cancer
NY-21 Michael McNulty Dem D+9 Apparently had enough after 10 terms; age: 60
IN-07 Julia Carson Dem D+9 Died Dec. 15, 2007
CO-02 Mark Udall Dem D+8 Running for Wayne Allard's Senate seat
ME-01 Tom Allen Dem D+6 Running against Susan Collins for the Senate
NM-03 Tom Udall Dem D+6 Running for Domenici's Senate seat
NJ-03 James Saxton GOP D+3 Apparently had enough after 12 terms; age: 64
NM-01 Heather Wilson GOP D+2 Running for Domenici's Senate seat
IL-11 Jerry Weller GOP R+1 Probably due to growing scandals
MN-03 Jim Ramstad GOP R+1 Not known; he could easily be reelected
NJ-07 Mike Ferguson GOP R+1 Not known
OH-15 Deborah Pryce GOP R+1 No. 4 is GOP leadership; minority is no fun (?)
AZ-01 Rick Renzi GOP R+2 Would be defeated due to corruption scandals
OH-16 Ralph Regula GOP R+4 At 82 and in the minority, he's had it
IL-14 Dennis Hastert GOP R+5 Too many scandals and loss of power
IL-18 Ray LaHood GOP R+5 Unknown; he is only 61
NM-02 Steve Pearce GOP R+6 Running for Domenici's Senate seat
LA-04 Jim McCrery GOP R+7 Ranking member of Ways and Means, sees he will never chair it
OH-07 David Hobson GOP R+6 Unclear; maybe his age (71)
CA-52 Duncan Hunter GOP R+9 Running for President
CO-06 Tom Tancredo GOP R+10 Made an abortive run for President
MS-01 Roger Wicker GOP R+10 Was appointed to fill Trent Lott's seat in the Senate
PA-05 John Peterson GOP R+10 Age and health reasons
CA-04 John Doolittle GOP R+11 One scandal too many
AL-02 Terry Everett GOP R+13 Unclear; he is a mere 70 and could serve 10 more years
MS-03 Chip Pickering GOP R+13 Got bored waiting for a Senate vacancy
LA-01 Bobbie Jindal GOP R+18 Elected governor of Louisiana in 2007
WY-AL Barbara Cubin GOP R+19 Probably forced out by GOP leadership

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com