A revote in Florida seems unlikely (but never say never) but they are still battling in Michigan.
Hillary Clinton wants one and Barack Obama doesn't seem to. According to a
in the Washngton Post, because he might lose it.
There are also legitimate issues about whether Democrats who voted in the Republican primary
on Jan. 15 could vote in the new one. Another issue is who pays for the election? The state
doesn't have any money. Wealthy Clinton donors might be willing to finance it, however.
If Florida and Michigan ultimately do not revote, the assignment of their delegates is only
part of the story. If these primaries are discounted as being invalid, then nationally, Obama holds a
popular vote margin over Clinton of 700,000 votes. When the PLEOs finally have to make a choice, if
one candidate holds the most pledged delegates, the most state victories, and the largest popular vote,
these facts are certainly going to play a role in how they vote. Clinton feels, and rightly so, big
victories for her in Michigan and Florida would neutralize Obama on all these fronts. That is why she
badly wants revotes and he doesn't. Of course, she can't accuse him of playing hardball because that
is a sport she also engages in from time to time herself.
MyDD has a story on
a possible third term for DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer (D-NY). While not unprecedented, it is quite
unusual, but Schumer is much beloved by his fellow Democratic senators. It was he who engineered the
pickup of six Senate seats in 2006, something nobody thought possible. In 2008, he could easily add
four more (Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and New Hampshire) and possibly one or more of Oregon, Minnesota,
Alaska, and Maine. This would mean he picked up between 10 and 14 seats in two cycles. Needless to say,
with that kind of track record, the job is his in 2010 if he wants it.
It looks like another Republican is
Tom Reynolds in NY-26.
He escaped the Democratic onslaught in 2006, despite being involved in the Foley pedophile scandal (he knew
about Foley and did nothing), but now he is calling it a day. This district, which tilts slightly
Republican, will now become a huge battleground. New York state will see many tough House fights in 2008,
especially NY-19 (Hall-D), NY-20 (Gillibrand-D), NY-24 (Arcuri-D), NY-25 (open, was Walsh-R),
NY-26 (open, was Reynolds-R), and NY-29 (Kuhl-R).
All three of the Democrats were elected in 2006 in Republican districts and the GOP wants those seats back.
Continuing yesterday's discussion of top-tier House races, here are the ones west of the
Mississippi that currently look most competitive. Again, it is a judgment call on many of these
at this moment.
For example, AZ-05 (which is PVI R+4) is not in the list whereas AZ-08 (R+1) is.
Why? Because in AZ-08, Gabrielle Giffords (D) has a strong challenger in President of the Arizona state Senate
Tim Bee (R). In contrast, Nobody of much stature is running against Harry Mitchell in AZ-05, even though his
district is more Republican than Giffords'. You can't beat somebody with nobody.
Clicking on a candidate's picture goes to the candidate's campaign site.
Clicking on the name goes to the Wikipedia entry--except for Darren White and Tim Bee, who don't have Wikipedia
entries. Will someone please create them?
Normally an 18-term congressman who wants to be reelected just has to show up.
But Don Young is going to have to fight to keep his job because he is the
subject of a federal investigation concerning bribes and failure to report gifts.
First he has to beat back a primary challenger from Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell,
who is backed by Gov. Sarah Palin (R).
If he pulls that off, he then has to defeat
Democratic opponent Ethan Berkowitz, former minority leader in the
Alaska House. A recent poll puts Berkowitz ahead of Young by 7%.
Congressman Rick Renzi has announced that he will retire in 2009.
He is under indictment for various crimes and is severely damaged goods.
His retirement means there will be a battle royal in this swing district.
While Arizona tends to vote Republican in Presidential elections, the Democrats
picked up two House seats here in 2006: Gabrielle Giffords in AZ-08 and
Harry Mitchell in AZ-05.
Expect primary fights in both parties.
Gabrielle Giffords is a first-term congresswoman who won an open seat in 2006 against
a Republican so far to the right that much of [arty abandoned him as hopeless. This
time she has a much stronger opponent, the President of the Arizona state Senate, Tim Bee.
Of course, this time she is the incumbent in what is likely to be another Democratic year.
Nevertheless, this will be a closely watched race.
In 2006, Rep. John Doolittle defeated his Democratic opponent, Col. Charlie Brown,
a retired Air Force pilot, by 49% to 46%. However, the ongoing FBI investigation
of both Doolittle and his wife, both of whom have ties to convicted lobbyist
Jack Abramoff, and his landing on the list of the 20 most corrupt members of
Congress compiled by the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington,
got to be too much and in January Doolittle announced that he was not running
for reelection. Since the district is heavily Republican, a primary fight is
likely to develop here for this open seat.
This upset by Democrat Nancy Boyda (D) was completely under the radar. Nobody saw it
coming in this R+7 district. But the Democratic wave was just too strong for
incumbent Jim Ryun. But the Republicans will surely fight hard to get it back in 2008.
Former incumbent Jim Ryun has, in fact, already said he wants a rematch. However
he will first have to defeat state treasurer Lynn Jenkins in what will probably
be a bitter primary fight.
Jon Porter (R) withstood a challenge from Tessa Hafen, winning by about 4000 votes out of
200,000 cast in this relatively evenly split Clark County district (D+1). But the Democrats
are likely to go after him seriously again in 2008.
Two candidates, former prosecutor Robert Daskas and CPA Andrew Martin and competing for the Democratic nomination
to challenge Porter.
In 2006, this was an extraordinarily close race in a swing state. State Attorney
General Patricia Madrid (D) lost by only 1000 votes to incumbent Heather Wilson.
Now Wilson is running for the Senate, so this is an open seat and will be very competitive.
Several high-profile Democrats are in a primary fight.
The Republican candidate will probably be Bernalillo County sheriff Darren White.
This is Tom DeLay's district. Nick Lampson won, in part, because in 2006 his
opponent had to run a write-in campaign as a result of a court decision
that did not allow DeLay to change his residence to Virginia and get
off the ballot. This time Lampson will face a serious challenge in this
heavily Republican district.
In fact, no fewer than 10 people have filed to run in the Republican primary.
In a surprise upset, Ciro Rodriguez defeated incumbent Henry Bonilla (R) in
a runoff election. The district is very heavily Hispanic and unless the
Republicans can find a Hispanic who dislikes Robert Frost ("Good fences
make good neighbors"), Rodriguez will probably hang on.
Two Republicans have filed to run, neither of whom is well known.
Incumbent Dave Reichert (R) beat back a fierce challenge from Microsoft
manager Darcy Burner, ultimately winning by 7300 votes out of 250,000 cast.
The district, in the eastern Seattle suburbs, leans slightly Democratic (D+2),
but that wasn't quite enough to overcome the power of incumbency.
Burner is challenging Reichert again and has been outraising him
Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers
(Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote).
The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have
been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some
guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June.
Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters
slightly different stories that they interpret differently.