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News: Updated Apr. 25


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News from the Votemaster

There was quite a discussion of this site on Daily Kos yesterday. The Clinton camp was apparently using the maps here to show that Hillary Clinton is more electable than Barack Obama. The Daily Kos editor-in-chief, Markos Moulitsas, took a closer look at the data, especially which states are statistical ties, and came to quite a different conclusion. Nearly 300 people commented on his posting.

CQ Politics has a state-by-state rundown of the general election.

About two weeks ago we had a table listing how liberal interest groups rated all the senators. That was followed by a table listing how conservative groups rated them. Those tables are available on the Data galore page listed on the menu. Today we have liberal group ratings of members of the House. Conservative group ratings will follow (maybe) next week.

The Senate listing is very partisan. With one exception, it is all blue on top and all red on the bottom. No Republican votes like a Democrat and only one Democrat votes like a (relatively liberal) Republican. The House is also partisan, but with more members, there is a bit more mixing due to local circumstances. The most liberal Republican representative is Chris Shays (R-CT), the only Republican congressman left in all of New England. He knows if he voted like a Republican he'd be unemployed within 2 years. Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD) voted liberal enough to get a 75% rating from the liberal groups and what happened? A primary challenge from the right and he was defeated in the Republican primary earlier this year. The message here is clear: think for yourself and be defeated. Democrat Al Wynn (D-MD) ran into the same problem. He wasn't liberal enough for his constituents and was defeated from the left by a young black woman, Donna Edwards, who got a lot of support from the blogosphere. The least liberal House Democrat is David Boren. He's from Oklahoma so he understands how he'd better vote.

There are many competitive House races this year--something for everyone--and in many states across the country from Oregon to Virginia. See the "Hot House races" link on the menu above for a discussion of about 50 of the most contested ones.

The seven groups used in this study are:

ACLU - American Civil Liberties Union
ADA - Americans for Democratic Action
CDF - Children's Defense Fund
LCV - League of Conservation Voters
NAACP - National Association for the Advancement of Colored People
NARAL - National Abortion and Reproductive Rights Action League
SEIU - Service Employees International Union

The data is available for download in .csv format so you can slice and dice the data as you wish. The ratings are for 2007. For Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), some of his votes were made as a House member before he was appointed to the Senate.

Additional ratings from other interest groups can be found at www.vote-smart.org.

Thanks to Ramy Rahal for collecting the data.

CD Rep NARAL% ACLU% ADA% CDF% LCV% NAACP% SEIU% Mean%
IL-09 Janice Schakowsky (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
MA-06 John Tierney (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
MN-05 Keith Ellison (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
OR-01 David Wu (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WI-02 Tammy Baldwin (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
NY-18 Nita Lowey (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
NH-02 Paul Hodes (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 100% 99%
NM-03 Tom Udall (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 100% 99%
KY-03 John Yarmuth (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 100% 87%
CA-16 Zoe Lofgren (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
CA-39 Linda Sanchez (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
GA-04 Henry Johnson (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
IL-02 Jesse Jackson (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
MA-03 James McGovern (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
MA-07 Edward Markey (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
MD-07 Elijah Cummings (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
NJ-08 William Pascrell (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
NJ-01 Robert Andrews (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 94% 99%
CA-27 Brad Sherman (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 96% 100% 99%
CA-32 Hilda Solis (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 96% 100% 99%
NY-01 Timothy Bishop (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 96% 100% 99%
NY-19 John Hall (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 96% 100% 99%
NY-28 Louise McIntosh Slaughter (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 96% 100% 99%
TN-09 Steve Cohen (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 96% 100% 99%
AZ-07 Raul Grijalva (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 99%
CA-23 Lois Capps (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
CA-38 Grace Flores Napolitano (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 99%
HI-02 Mazie Hirono (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 99%
MD-04 Albert Wynn (D) 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 100% 99%
NC-04 David Eugene Price (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
NC-13 R. Bradley Miller (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 99%
NJ-06 Frank Pallone (D) 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 100% 99%
NJ-13 Albio Sires (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
RI-01 Patrick Joseph Kennedy (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 99%
TX-18 Sheila Jackson Lee (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 99%
VA-03 Robert Scott (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 99%
WI-04 Gwendolynne Moore (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 100% 100% 99%
ME-01 Thomas Allen (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 88% 100% 98%
CA-10 Ellen Tauscher (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 92% 100% 98%
CT-02 Joseph Courtney (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 92% 100% 98%
MO-03 John Russell Carnahan (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 96% 100% 98%
NY-07 Joseph Crowley (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 96% 100% 98%
AZ-04 Ed Pastor (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 100% 100% 98%
CA-15 Michael Honda (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 100% 100% 98%
IL-01 Bobby Rush (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 100% 100% 98%
IL-07 Danny Davis (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 100% 100% 98%
MD-03 John Sarbanes (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 100% 100% 98%
NY-06 Gregory Meeks (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 100% 100% 98%
NY-15 Charles Rangel (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 100% 100% 98%
NY-22 Maurice Hinchey (D) 100% 100% 100% 90% 95% 100% 100% 98%
MA-01 John Olver (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 100% 94% 98%
NJ-12 Rush Holt (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 100% 94% 98%
CA-05 Doris Matsui (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 92% 100% 97%
CA-29 Adam Schiff (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 92% 100% 97%
MA-08 Michael Capuano (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 92% 100% 97%
VA-08 James Moran (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 92% 100% 97%
CA-07 George Miller (D) 100% 100% 100% 90% 95% 96% 100% 97%
CA-14 Anna Eshoo (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 100% 97%
CA-17 Sam Farr (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 100% 97%
CA-30 Henry Waxman (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 96% 100% 97%
CT-01 John Larson (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 100% 97%
IL-17 Phil Hare (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 96% 100% 97%
NC-12 Melvin Watt (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 96% 100% 97%
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 100% 97%
NJ-09 Steven Rothman (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 100% 97%
TX-25 Lloyd Doggett (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 100% 97%
CA-31 Xavier Becerra (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 100% 100% 97%
CA-51 Bob Filner (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 90% 100% 100% 97%
FL-23 Alcee Hastings (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 90% 100% 100% 97%
MA-02 Richard Neal (D) 100% 100% 95% 90% 95% 100% 100% 97%
MO-05 Emanuel Cleaver (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 100% 100% 97%
NY-16 Jose Serrano (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 100% 100% 97%
WI-07 David Ross Obey (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 96% 94% 97%
CA-43 Joe Baca (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 100% 94% 97%
IA-02 Dave Loebsack (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 100% 94% 97%
MS-02 Bennie Thompson (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 100% 94% 97%
TX-09 Al Green (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 100% 94% 97%
RI-02 James Langevin (D) 100% 83% 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 97%
CA-11 Gerald McNerney (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 92% 100% 97%
OH-13 Betty Sutton (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 92% 100% 97%
FL-19 Robert Wexler (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 96% 100% 97%
IL-04 Luis Gutierrez (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 80% 96% 100% 97%
NY-08 Jerrold Nadler (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 92% 94% 97%
PA-07 Joe Sestak (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 100% 92% 89% 97%
CA-34 Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) 100% 100% 100% 90% 85% 100% 100% 96%
CT-05 Christopher Murphy (D) 100% 83% 100% 100% 100% 92% 100% 96%
IL-05 Rahm Emanuel (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 94% 96%
MA-04 Barney Frank (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 80% 100% 100% 96%
MD-08 Christopher Van Hollen (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 96% 94% 96%
MI-15 John Dingell (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 94% 96%
NY-20 Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 95% 96% 89% 96%
OH-17 Timothy Ryan (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 80% 100% 100% 96%
PA-13 Allyson Schwartz (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 96% 94% 96%
WI-08 Steven Kagen (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 96% 94% 96%
FL-17 Kendrick Meek (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 100% 94% 96%
MD-05 Steny Hoyer (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 90% 100% 94% 96%
MI-14 John Conyers (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 100% 94% 96%
NY-10 Edolphus Towns (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 90% 100% 94% 96%
NY-12 Nydia Velazquez (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 100% 94% 96%
CA-01 Michael Thompson (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 90% 92% 100% 96%
CA-36 Jane Harman (D) 100% 100% 95% 90% 90% 96% 100% 96%
CA-53 Susan Davis (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 92% 94% 96%
CO-02 Mark Udall (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 92% 94% 96%
IN-01 Peter Visclosky (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 92% 94% 96%
MI-13 Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 80% 96% 100% 96%
NY-05 Gary Ackerman (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 85% 96% 100% 96%
OR-04 Peter DeFazio (D) 100% 100% 90% 90% 95% 96% 100% 96%
WI-03 Ronald James Kind (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 92% 94% 96%
CO-01 Diana DeGette (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 96% 89% 96%
FL-20 Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 90% 96% 94% 96%
ME-02 Michael Michaud (D) 100% 100% 85% 100% 100% 96% 89% 96%
MO-01 William Lacy Clay (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 75% 100% 100% 96%
NY-04 Carolyn McCarthy (D) 100% 100% 90% 90% 100% 96% 94% 96%
NY-09 Anthony David Weiner (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 90% 96% 94% 96%
FL-03 Corrine Brown (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 85% 100% 94% 96%
MN-04 Betty McCollum (D) 100% 100% 90% 90% 95% 100% 94% 96%
NJ-10 Donald Payne (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 75% 100% 94% 96%
NY-24 Michael Arcuri (D) 100% 83% 100% 100% 90% 96% 100% 96%
SC-06 James Clyburn (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 80% 100% 94% 96%
VT-AL Peter Welch (D) 100% 83% 95% 100% 95% 96% 100% 96%
WA-09 Adam Smith (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 90% 84% 100% 96%
NY-14 Carolyn Maloney (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 84% 94% 95%
CT-03 Rosa DeLauro (D) 100% 100% 100% 90% 85% 92% 100% 95%
NY-21 Michael McNulty (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 95% 92% 89% 95%
WA-03 Brian Baird (D) 100% 100% 95% 90% 95% 92% 94% 95%
CA-09 Barbara Lee (D) 100% 100% 90% 90% 95% 96% 94% 95%
CA-35 Maxine Waters (D) 100% 100% 85% 90% 100% 96% 94% 95%
FL-11 Kathy Castor (D) 100% 100% 95% 80% 95% 100% 94% 95%
NY-27 Brian Higgins (D) 100% 83% 95% 100% 95% 96% 94% 95%
FL-22 Ron Klein (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 75% 92% 100% 95%
SC-05 John Spratt (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 85% 88% 94% 95%
IA-01 Bruce Braley (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 85% 92% 94% 94%
KS-03 Dennis Moore (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 85% 92% 94% 94%
OR-03 Earl Blumenauer (D) 100% 100% 85% 90% 100% 92% 94% 94%
CA-33 Diane Watson (D) 100% 100% 95% 80% 90% 100% 94% 94%
NC-01 George Butterfield (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 70% 100% 94% 94%
GA-05 John Lewis (D) 100% 100% 85% 100% 95% 100% 78% 94%
HI-01 Neil Abercrombie (D) 100% 100% 100% 100% 70% 88% 100% 94%
MN-01 Timothy Walz (D) 100% 83% 100% 100% 85% 96% 94% 94%
WA-02 Rick Larsen (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 80% 88% 94% 94%
CO-07 Ed Perlmutter (D) 100% 83% 95% 100% 90% 88% 100% 94%
MA-10 William Delahunt (D) 100% 100% 95% 90% 90% 92% 89% 94%
NY-02 Steve Israel (D) 100% 100% 85% 90% 100% 92% 89% 94%
VA-09 Frederick Boucher (D) 100% 100% 95% 100% 75% 92% 94% 94%
WA-06 Norman Dicks (D) 100% 100% 95% 80% 95% 92% 94% 94%
WA-07 James McDermott (D) 100% 100% 85% 80% 95% 96% 100% 94%
CA-13 Fortney Stark (D) 100% 100% 80% 90% 100% 96% 89% 94%
MI-12 Sander Levin (D) 100% 100% 90% 90% 90% 96% 89% 94%
MA-09 Stephen Lynch (D) 100% 83% 90% 100% 90% 96% 94% 93%
TX-20 Charles Gonzalez (D) 100% 83% 95% 100% 85% 96% 94% 93%
WA-01 Jay Inslee (D) 100% 100% 80% 100% 95% 84% 94% 93%
OR-05 Darlene Hooley (D) 100% 100% 85% 90% 85% 92% 100% 93%
PA-01 Robert Brady (D) 100% 100% 85% 100% 85% 88% 94% 93%
CA-47 Loretta Sanchez (D) 100% 83% 100% 90% 90% 88% 100% 93%
CA-28 Howard Berman (D) 100% 100% 85% 100% 85% 96% 84% 93%
PA-08 Patrick Murphy (D) 100% 83% 95% 90% 90% 92% 100% 93%
CA-06 Lynn Woolsey (D) 100% 100% 80% 80% 95% 100% 94% 93%
KY-06 Albert Chandler (D) 100% 67% 95% 100% 100% 92% 94% 93%
GA-13 David Scott (D) 100% 83% 90% 100% 80% 96% 94% 92%
MD-02 C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger (D) 100% 83% 90% 100% 80% 96% 94% 92%
CA-18 Dennis Cardoza (D) 100% 100% 90% 100% 65% 92% 94% 92%
LA-02 William Jefferson (D) 100% 100% 85% 100% 75% 92% 89% 92%
OH-11 Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D) 100% 100% 95% 80% 75% 100% 89% 91%
GA-02 Sanford Bishop (D) 100% 83% 90% 100% 75% 96% 94% 91%
TX-16 Silvestre Reyes (D) 100% 83% 95% 100% 70% 96% 94% 91%
PA-14 Michael Doyle (D) 100% 100% 95% 80% 80% 88% 94% 91%
TX-29 Raymond Eugene Green (D) 100% 100% 95% 90% 65% 96% 89% 91%
PA-02 Chaka Fattah (D) 100% 100% 75% 100% 90% 80% 89% 91%
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez (D) 100% 67% 95% 100% 80% 96% 94% 90%
AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords (D) 100% 100% 80% 80% 95% 92% 84% 90%
IA-03 Leonard Boswell (D) 100% 83% 90% 100% 75% 88% 94% 90%
CA-20 Jim Costa (D) 100% 83% 90% 100% 75% 92% 89% 90%
OH-09 Marcy Kaptur (D) 50% 100% 95% 100% 80% 100% 100% 89%
MI-05 Dale Kildee (D) 50% 100% 100% 100% 80% 100% 94% 89%
ND-AL Earl Pomeroy (D) 100% 67% 85% 100% 85% 92% 94% 89%
AL-07 Artur Davis (D) 100% 67% 90% 100% 80% 88% 94% 88%
CO-03 John Salazar (D) 100% 83% 90% 90% 70% 92% 94% 88%
AR-02 Victor Snyder (D) 100% 67% 85% 100% 85% 92% 89% 88%
NY-17 Eliot Engel (D) 100% 100% 80% 90% 85% 84% 78% 88%
AR-01 Robert Marion Berry (D) 100% 83% 90% 90% 70% 92% 89% 88%
NY-11 Yvette Clarke (D) 100% 100% 75% 90% 80% 84% 84% 88%
NC-02 Bob Etheridge (D) 100% 83% 90% 80% 85% 88% 84% 87%
TX-30 Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) 100% 100% 80% 90% 80% 76% 84% 87%
NV-01 Shelley Berkley (D) 100% 83% 85% 90% 75% 92% 84% 87%
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) 100% 67% 90% 100% 70% 88% 94% 87%
OH-18 Zachary Space (D) 100% 67% 95% 100% 60% 92% 94% 87%
TX-28 Henry Cuellar (D) 100% 67% 90% 100% 65% 92% 94% 87%
PA-12 John Murtha (D) 50% 100% 95% 100% 75% 92% 94% 87%
MI-01 Bart Stupak (D) 50% 100% 95% 100% 70% 96% 94% 86%
AZ-05 Harry Mitchell (D) 100% 83% 80% 60% 100% 92% 89% 86%
TX-15 Ruben Hinojosa (D) 100% 100% 90% 90% 55% 84% 84% 86%
TN-06 Bart Gordon (D) 100% 50% 85% 100% 80% 88% 89% 85%
TX-17 Thomas Edwards (D) 100% 67% 85% 100% 60% 96% 84% 85%
KS-02 Nancy Boyda (D) 100% 67% 80% 100% 70% 84% 89% 84%
IL-08 Melissa Bean (D) 100% 83% 80% 70% 85% 80% 89% 84%
FL-16 Tim Mahoney (D) 100% 67% 80% 90% 75% 84% 89% 84%
IN-09 Baron Hill (D) 100% 83% 85% 60% 85% 88% 84% 84%
PA-11 Paul Kanjorski (D) 50% 100% 90% 100% 70% 84% 89% 83%
TN-05 Jim Cooper (D) 100% 67% 85% 80% 80% 84% 84% 83%
FL-02 Allen Boyd (D) 100% 67% 80% 90% 65% 88% 89% 83%
TN-08 John Tanner (D) 100% 60% 80% 100% 70% 84% 84% 83%
PA-10 Christopher Carney (D) 100% 50% 85% 100% 80% 76% 84% 82%
PA-04 Jason Altmire (D) 50% 67% 95% 100% 80% 84% 94% 81%
AR-04 Mike Ross (D) 100% 50% 85% 100% 60% 84% 89% 81%
OH-10 Dennis Kucinich (D) 100% 100% 70% 70% 80% % 63% 81%
IL-12 Jerry Costello (D) 0% 100% 95% 100% 75% 92% 100% 80%
PA-17 Tim Holden (D) 50% 83% 80% 90% 70% 88% 84% 78%
UT-02 Jim Matheson (D) 100% 67% 75% 80% 55% 92% 73% 77%
IL-03 Daniel Lipinski (D) 0% 83% 85% 100% 90% 92% 89% 77%
CT-04 Christopher Shays (R) 100% 60% 55% 70% 100% 84% 68% 77%
WV-03 Nick Joe Rahall (D) 0% 100% 85% 100% 75% 88% 89% 77%
MO-04 Ike Skelton (D) 0% 100% 85% 100% 70% 92% 89% 77%
WV-01 Alan Mollohan (D) 0% 100% 95% 100% 55% 92% 94% 77%
MN-08 James Oberstar (D) 50% 100% 75% 70% 75% 88% 73% 76%
CA-37 Laura Richardson (D) % % % 100% 100% % 26% 75%
GA-12 John Barrow (D) 100% 50% 70% 80% 65% 88% 68% 74%
AL-05 Robert Cramer (D) 50% 33% 80% 100% 70% 84% 89% 72%
OH-06 Charles Wilson (D) 0% 83% 85% 100% 60% 84% 94% 72%
MD-01 Wayne Gilchrest (R) 100% 60% 60% 70% 60% 68% 68% 69%
MN-07 Collin Peterson (D) 0% 67% 85% 100% 60% 80% 89% 69%
DE-AL Michael Castle (R) 100% 33% 50% 70% 95% 68% 63% 68%
IL-10 Mark Kirk (R) 100% 50% 40% 70% 90% 64% 52% 67%
IN-02 Joe Donnelly (D) 0% 50% 85% 80% 85% 76% 89% 66%
LA-03 Charles Melancon (D) 0% 50% 85% 100% 55% 84% 84% 65%
TX-22 Nicholas Lampson (D) 100% 25% 60% 90% 50% 60% 63% 64%
TX-27 Solomon Ortiz (D) 0% 75% 80% 100% 35% 76% 78% 63%
IN-08 Brad Ellsworth (D) 0% 50% 75% 70% 75% 76% 84% 61%
NC-11 Heath Shuler (D) 0% 33% 80% 80% 75% 72% 84% 61%
MN-03 James Ramstad (R) 100% 0% 45% 70% 95% 56% 57% 60%
NC-07 Mike McIntyre (D) 0% 33% 85% 80% 75% 72% 78% 60%
TN-04 Lincoln Davis (D) 0% 17% 75% 90% 75% 84% 73% 59%
PA-15 Charles Dent (R) 100% 17% 45% 70% 55% 68% 57% 59%
MA-05 Nicola Tsongas (D) % % % 100% 100% % 21% 55%
NJ-02 Frank LoBiondo (R) 0% 17% 50% 80% 90% 68% 68% 53%
PA-06 Jim Gerlach (R) 50% 17% 40% 70% 70% 64% 52% 52%
NJ-07 Michael Ferguson (R) 0% 17% 40% 80% 85% 76% 63% 52%
NJ-04 Christopher Smith (R) 0% 17% 55% 70% 85% 68% 63% 51%
MS-04 Gene Taylor (D) 0% 50% 65% 60% 80% 64% 36% 51%
NJ-11 Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) 100% 17% 30% 50% 70% 56% 31% 51%
GA-08 James Marshall (D) 0% 33% 60% 70% 55% 72% 52% 49%
OH-15 Deborah Pryce (R) 100% 17% 30% 70% 25% 48% 47% 48%
CA-08 Nancy Pelosi (D) 100% 100% % 60% % % 73% 48%
IL-13 Judy Biggert (R) 100% 17% 30% 50% 55% 44% 36% 47%
MI-06 Frederick Stephen Upton (R) 50% 17% 40% 70% 35% 60% 52% 46%
WA-08 David George Reichert (R) 0% 17% 40% 50% 85% 60% 52% 43%
OR-02 Greg Walden (R) 100% 17% 30% 50% 20% 48% 36% 43%
WV-02 Shelley Moore Capito (R) 50% 0% 35% 80% 20% 64% 52% 43%
NY-25 James Walsh (R) 0% 33% 40% 60% 45% 64% 57% 43%
PA-19 Todd Platts (R) 0% 17% 45% 60% 55% 60% 57% 42%
IL-15 Timothy Johnson (R) 0% 50% 35% 50% 75% 44% 36% 41%
OH-14 Steven LaTourette (R) 0% 0% 55% 60% 40% 72% 63% 41%
VA-11 Thomas Davis (R) 100% 0% 30% 30% 40% 48% 36% 41%
NY-23 John McHugh (R) 0% 0% 45% 70% 45% 64% 57% 40%
NJ-03 H. James Saxton (R) 0% 20% 35% 50% 75% 52% 47% 40%
VA-10 Frank Rudolph Wolf (R) 0% 0% 40% 70% 60% 52% 52% 39%
NM-01 Heather Wilson (R) 50% 0% 35% 70% 15% 56% 47% 39%
PA-03 Philip English (R) 0% 17% 40% 50% 35% 68% 57% 38%
NC-03 Walter Beaman Jones (R) 0% 33% 50% 50% 40% 44% 47% 38%
CA-45 Mary Whitaker Bono Mack (R) 50% 17% 30% 50% 30% 44% 42% 38%
OK-02 David Daniel Boren (D) 0% 33% 50% 50% 15% 64% 47% 37%
MI-03 Vernon Ehlers (R) 0% 17% 20% 60% 70% 44% 42% 36%
IL-18 Ray LaHood (R) 0% 25% 25% 70% 35% 52% 42% 36%
WI-06 Thomas Petri (R) 0% 17% 30% 60% 50% 44% 47% 35%
MO-08 Jo Ann Emerson (R) 0% 0% 50% 60% 15% 64% 57% 35%
PA-18 Tim Murphy (R) 0% 0% 40% 70% 20% 64% 52% 35%
NV-03 Jon Christopher Porter (R) 0% 17% 30% 50% 30% 56% 47% 33%
FL-13 Vern Buchanan (R) 0% 0% 35% 60% 25% 56% 52% 33%
MI-10 Candice Miller (R) 0% 0% 30% 70% 25% 48% 52% 32%
OH-16 Ralph Regula (R) 0% 0% 35% 60% 20% 56% 52% 32%
FL-18 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 0% 33% 25% 50% 30% 48% 36% 32%
AZ-01 Richard Renzi (R) 0% 0% 35% 60% 10% 64% 52% 32%
NY-13 Vito Fossella (R) 0% 0% 40% 50% 30% 44% 57% 32%
OH-07 David Lee Hobson (R) 50% 0% 20% 50% 20% 44% 36% 31%
FL-21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) 0% 33% 25% 50% 20% 52% 36% 31%
FL-10 C. W. Bill Young (R) 0% 0% 30% 60% 35% 40% 42% 30%
NY-03 Peter King (R) 0% 0% 30% 50% 30% 52% 42% 29%
OH-03 Michael Turner (R) 0% 0% 25% 70% 10% 52% 47% 29%
FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart (R) 0% 33% 25% 40% 15% 52% 36% 29%
AK-AL Donald Young (R) 0% 20% 30% 40% 10% 52% 47% 28%
FL-05 VA Brown-Waite (R) 50% 0% 20% 50% 20% 32% 21% 28%
KS-01 Jerry Moran (R) 0% 17% 30% 50% 10% 44% 42% 28%
NY-29 John Kuhl (R) 0% 17% 20% 40% 30% 52% 31% 27%
KY-01 Edward Whitfield (R) 0% 0% 25% 60% 15% 52% 36% 27%
ID-02 Michael Simpson (R) 0% 0% 20% 70% 5% 48% 31% 25%
NC-08 Robert Hayes (R) 0% 0% 30% 50% 15% 48% 31% 25%
NE-01 Jeff Fortenberry (R) 0% 0% 15% 50% 45% 40% 21% 24%
FL-09 Gus Michael Bilirakis (R) 0% 0% 20% 60% 15% 44% 31% 24%
MT-AL Dennis Rehberg (R) 0% 0% 20% 60% 10% 44% 36% 24%
NY-26 Thomas Reynolds (R) 50% 0% 15% 30% 5% 44% 26% 24%
FL-08 Ric Keller (R) 0% 0% 20% 60% 15% 40% 31% 24%
OH-12 Patrick Tiberi (R) 0% 0% 20% 50% 15% 36% 36% 22%
MD-06 Roscoe Bartlett (R) 0% 33% 15% 20% 45% 28% 15% 22%
MI-11 Thaddeus McCotter (R) 0% 0% 20% 40% 15% 40% 36% 22%
AL-03 Michael Rogers (R) 0% 0% 20% 50% 15% 44% 21% 21%
PA-05 John Peterson (R) 0% 0% 20% 50% 10% 44% 26% 21%
IL-11 Gerald Weller (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 25% 48% 31% 21%
IA-04 Thomas Latham (R) 0% 0% 20% 40% 5% 44% 36% 21%
MI-09 Joseph Knollenberg (R) 0% 0% 20% 30% 20% 40% 31% 20%
CA-41 Jerry Lewis (R) 50% 0% 10% 20% 15% 32% 10% 20%
AR-03 John Boozman (R) 0% 0% 15% 50% 10% 40% 21% 19%
MO-09 Kenny Hulshof (R) 0% 0% 20% 40% 5% 40% 31% 19%
IL-19 John Shimkus (R) 0% 0% 15% 40% 10% 48% 21% 19%
VA-04 James Randy Forbes (R) 0% 0% 20% 40% 5% 40% 26% 19%
TX-14 Ronald Paul (R) 0% 67% 15% 0% 15% % 15% 19%
TN-03 Zach Wamp (R) 0% 17% 20% 30% 10% 32% 21% 19%
MO-06 Samuel Graves (R) 0% 0% 15% 40% 5% 40% 26% 18%
NV-02 Dean Heller (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 15% 40% 26% 18%
AL-04 Robert Aderholt (R) 0% 0% 20% 40% 10% 36% 15% 17%
KY-05 Harold Rogers (R) 0% 0% 10% 40% 5% 40% 26% 17%
TX-12 Kay Granger (R) 50% 0% 10% 20% 0% 28% 10% 17%
TN-02 John Duncan (R) 0% 17% 20% 20% 10% 24% 26% 17%
TX-10 Michael McCaul (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 10% 40% 21% 17%
LA-05 Rodney Alexander (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 10% 44% 21% 16%
FL-04 Ander Crenshaw (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 5% 36% 26% 16%
FL-06 Clifford Stearns (R) 0% 17% 5% 30% 15% 32% 10% 16%
WI-01 Paul Ryan (R) 0% 0% 15% 20% 25% 28% 21% 16%
AL-01 Josiah Bonner (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 10% 32% 21% 15%
KS-04 Todd Tiahrt (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 5% 32% 26% 15%
SC-04 Robert Inglis (R) 0% 33% 5% 20% 25% 20% 5% 15%
MI-08 Mike Rogers (R) 0% 0% 5% 40% 5% 36% 21% 15%
TX-21 Lamar Smith (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 0% 40% 21% 15%
VA-06 Robert Goodlatte (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 0% 32% 26% 15%
KY-04 Geoff Davis (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 0% 36% 26% 15%
NE-02 Lee Terry (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 15% 36% 21% 15%
OH-02 Jean Schmidt (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 10% 32% 15% 15%
OK-04 Tom Cole (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 0% 36% 26% 15%
MS-03 Charles Pickering (R) 0% 0% 15% 20% 5% 40% 21% 14%
WA-05 Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (R) 0% 0% 15% 30% 5% 36% 15% 14%
CA-50 Brian Bilbray (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 25% 28% 15% 14%
AL-02 Terry Everett (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 10% 32% 15% 14%
OH-01 Steven Chabot (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 20% 32% 15% 14%
AL-06 Spencer Bachus (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 5% 36% 15% 14%
TN-01 David Davis (R) 0% 17% 5% 20% 10% 28% 15% 14%
CA-26 David Dreier (R) 0% 0% 20% 20% 15% 28% 10% 13%
TX-01 Louis Gohmert (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 0% 32% 21% 13%
TX-02 Ted Poe (R) 0% 0% 5% 30% 5% 32% 21% 13%
IL-06 Peter Roskam (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 15% 32% 15% 13%
PA-09 Bill Shuster (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 5% 32% 15% 13%
CA-24 Elton Gallegly (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 15% 28% 21% 13%
LA-04 James McCrery (R) 0% 17% 5% 20% 0% 32% 15% 13%
VA-05 Virgil Goode (R) 0% 0% 20% 20% 0% 28% 21% 13%
OK-03 Frank Lucas (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 0% 32% 15% 12%
CA-49 Darrell Issa (R) 0% 0% 20% 20% 0% 36% 10% 12%
VA-02 Thelma Drake (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 10% 36% 15% 12%
TX-24 Kenny Marchant (R) 0% 17% 10% 10% 5% 28% 15% 12%
SC-01 Henry Brown (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 5% 28% 10% 12%
TX-04 Ralph Moody Hall (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 32% 21% 12%
UT-03 Chris Cannon (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 10% 28% 15% 12%
MI-04 David Lee Camp (R) 0% 0% 5% 30% 0% 32% 15% 12%
OK-05 Mary Fallin (R) 0% 0% 5% 30% 0% 32% 15% 12%
WA-04 Doc Hastings (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 5% 32% 15% 12%
IN-04 Stephen Buyer (R) 0% 0% 10% 30% 5% 24% 10% 11%
KY-02 Ron Lewis (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 28% 21% 11%
IN-03 Mark Souder (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 5% 28% 15% 11%
NM-02 Stevan Pearce (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 0% 32% 21% 11%
CA-22 Kevin McCarthy (R) 0% 0% 5% 30% 0% 32% 10% 11%
CA-46 Dana Rohrabacher (R) 0% 17% 5% 20% 10% 20% 5% 11%
LA-07 Charles Boustany (R) 0% 0% 5% 10% 0% 40% 21% 11%
IL-16 Donald Manzullo (R) 0% 17% 0% 30% 0% 16% 10% 10%
NC-09 Sue Myrick (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 10% 28% 5% 10%
NE-03 Adrian Smith (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 5% 28% 10% 10%
TX-26 Michael Burgess (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 32% 10% 10%
CA-25 Howard McKeon (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 10% 20% 10% 10%
MI-07 Timothy Walberg (R) 0% 17% 0% 10% 5% 28% 10% 10%
OK-01 John Sullivan (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 5% 24% 15% 10%
TX-13 William Thornberry (R) 0% 0% 5% 30% 0% 24% 10% 10%
CA-44 Ken Calvert (R) 0% 0% 15% 20% 0% 28% 5% 10%
CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 5% 28% 10% 10%
GA-01 Jack Kingston (R) 0% 17% 10% 20% 0% 16% 5% 10%
IN-05 Dan Burton (R) 0% 0% 10% 10% 5% 28% 15% 10%
MO-07 Roy Blunt (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 28% 10% 10%
TX-06 Joe Barton (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 28% 10% 10%
CA-48 John B.T. Campbell (R) 0% 0% 10% 10% 20% 20% 5% 9%
FL-12 Adam Putnam (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 5% 24% 5% 9%
SC-02 Addison Wilson (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 24% 10% 9%
UT-01 Rob Bishop (R) 0% 0% 10% 20% 0% 24% 10% 9%
TN-07 Marsha Blackburn (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 5% 28% 5% 9%
WI-05 F. James Sensenbrenner (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 20% 20% 0% 9%
CA-02 Walter Herger (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 0% 24% 10% 8%
FL-07 John Mica (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 5% 24% 5% 8%
MI-02 Peter Hoekstra (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 5% 24% 5% 8%
PA-16 Joseph Pitts (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 10% 24% 5% 8%
CA-21 Devin Nunes (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 0% 28% 5% 8%
TX-08 Kevin Brady (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 0% 28% 5% 8%
TX-11 K. Michael Conaway (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 0% 20% 10% 8%
AZ-06 Jeff Flake (R) 0% 17% 5% 0% 15% 12% 5% 8%
OH-08 John Boehner (R) 0% 0% 5% 20% 0% 24% 5% 8%
TX-32 Peter Sessions (R) 0% 0% 10% 10% 0% 24% 10% 8%
FL-14 Connie Mack (R) 0% 17% 5% 10% 5% 16% 0% 8%
ID-01 William Sali (R) 0% 17% 0% 10% 0% 20% 5% 7%
FL-01 Jeff Miller (R) 0% 0% 10% 0% 10% 16% 15% 7%
MN-02 John Kline (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 20% 10% 7%
MN-06 Michele Bachmann (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 20% 10% 7%
MO-02 W. Todd Akin (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 24% 10% 7%
CA-52 Duncan Hunter (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 5% % 15% 7%
CA-40 Edward Royce (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 15% 16% 5% 7%
CA-03 Daniel Lungren (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 5% 20% 0% 6%
FL-24 Tom Feeney (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 5% 20% 0% 6%
IN-06 Mike Pence (R) 0% 0% 5% 10% 5% 20% 5% 6%
VA-07 Eric Cantor (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 5% 20% 0% 6%
FL-15 David Weldon (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 24% 5% 6%
NC-06 John Howard Coble (R) 0% 0% 10% 0% 5% 28% 0% 6%
NJ-05 E. Scott Garrett (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 20% 12% 0% 6%
TX-31 John Carter (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 16% 5% 6%
CA-42 Gary Miller (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 20% 5% 6%
OH-04 James Jordan (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 24% 0% 6%
GA-09 Nathan Deal (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 5% 12% 0% 5%
TX-05 Jeb Hensarling (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 15% 12% 0% 5%
CA-19 George Radanovich (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 16% 0% 5%
GA-06 Thomas Price (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 10% 16% 0% 5%
IA-05 Steve King (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 16% 0% 5%
CA-04 John Doolittle (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 12% 5% 5%
GA-07 John Linder (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 12% 0% 5%
GA-11 Phil Gingrey (R) 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 12% 0% 5%
NC-05 VA Ann Foxx (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 10% 12% 0% 5%
TX-19 Randy Neugebauer (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 16% 5% 4%
AZ-02 Trent Franks (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 12% 0% 4%
AZ-03 John Shadegg (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 12% 0% 4%
CO-05 Douglas Lamborn (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 12% 0% 4%
SC-03 J. Gresham Barrett (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 12% 0% 4%
NC-10 Patrick McHenry (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 16% 0% 4%
TX-07 John Culberson (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 16% 0% 4%
TX-03 Samuel Robert Johnson (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 5% 8% 0% 3%
GA-03 Lynn Westmoreland (R) 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 12% 0% 3%
WY-AL Barbara Cubin (R) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 10% 3%
CO-06 Tom Tancredo (R) 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% % 0% 2%
GA-10 Paul Broun (R) % 0% 0% 0% 0% % 0% 0%

A new primary poll in Indiana shows it to be a statistical tie. Indiana is part of ye-olde-rust-belt, so it should vote like Ohio and Pennsylvania, but with a couple of footnotes. First, northwestern Indiana is really suburban Chicago and gets Chicago TV, so Obama is well known in that part of Indiana. Second, the state has a lot of typical Midwestern farm towns. Third, unlike Pennsylvania which is basically a blue state and Ohio which is a swing state, Indiana is a red state. Obama has done relatively well in other red states, but he certainly can't count on that here and both candidates will be fighting tooth and nail for this state. Hoosiers are not accustomed to being the center of attention, but this looks like their 15 minutes of fame.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama
Indiana Research 2000 Apr. 24 47% 48%

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.

Delegates

Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC
Washington Post 1593 1724 +131
NY Times 1555 1703 +148
AP 1593 1724 +131
CNN 1589 1724 +135
ABC 1587 1725 +138
CBS 1586 1718 +132
MSNBC 1596 1728 +132

Needed to win: 2024

Here is another source for delegate totals.



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