News from the Votemaster
Mouseovers have been added to the map. Put your mouse cursor on a state to see the three most recent polls (if they exist).
We have 18 (!) polls of New Hampshire since January 1.
Unlike the Iowa polls, which showed a race too close to call (and were wrong-- due to the unprecented turnout, more than double 2004), the New Hampshire polls are anything but ambiguous. They show a huge blowout for Barack Obama and a decent (but probably slightly smaller) win for John McCain. New Hampshire polling is always tricky because independents (about 40% of the electorate) can ask for either a Democratic or a Republican ballot and both Obama and McCain are wildly popular with independents. Which way they go may determine the size of the victories, but it seems unlikely to affect the outcome.
The averages of the ten post-Iowa polls are given below:For the Democrats;
Barack Obama: 36.7%
Hillary Clinton: 29.9%
John Edwards: 19.2%
For the Republicans
John McCain: 33.8%
Mitt Romney: 27.8%
Mike Huckabee: 11.4%
Rudy Giuliani: 9.3%
Fred Thompson: 2.3%
A huge Obama victory in New Hampshire won't end the race for the Democratic nomination. After all, Bill Clinton lost both Iowa and New Hampshire in 1992 and still won the nomination and the election. Nevertheless, it would make Obama the front runner. Two decisive victories in basically all-white states would pretty much end the discussion about whether white people will vote for a black candidate, just as John F. Kennedy's victory in the West Virginia primary in 1960 ended the discussion about whether Protestants would vote for a Catholic.
A McCain victory in New Hampshire would hurt Romney badly, but not cripple him. Romney won the underreported Wyoming caucuses Saturday and he'll probably win the renegade Michigan primary next week--after all, he was born there and his father was a popular governor. And he has the money to carry the fight to Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida, not to mention the expensive states on Feb. 5. A loss in New Hampshire will probably require Romney to do some soul searching though, as in: "Just how much do I want to be President?" 20 million? 30 million? 50 million? Unlike Mike Bloomberg, who might yet run as an independent and for whom $500 million is petty cash, $50 is probably something like a quarter of Romney's net worth. Does he want to blow it on his (now long-shot) bid?
-- The Votemaster