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News: Updated May 05

Obama Obama won
Clinton Clinton won
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News from the Votemaster

The link "Poll graphs" on the menu below the map is now working. Give it a try for both the Presidential and Senate races. The "Senate maps and races" link to the right of the map is also live from now on. However, it is only tracking the races where both candidates are already known (i.e., not Senate primaries).

If you missed the big news about LA-06, click on "Previous report" to the right of the map.

Last week we had a posting about the details of the North Carolina primary. Now it's Indiana's turn. Indiana chooses its elected delegates to the Democratic National Convention by congressional district, of which it has nine. Here is the map of the Indiana congressional districts.


Indiana will send 85 delegates to the Democratic National Convention as follows:

Type of delegate Number Pledged? Selection date Selected by
District-level 47 Yes June 21 State convention
PLEO 9 Yes June 21 State convention
At-large 16 Yes June 21 State convention
Add-ons 1 No June 21 State convention
DNC members 7 No N/A Ex officio
Representatives 5 No N/A Ex officio

The first step in the selection of delegates is the primary tomorrow, where the number of district-level delegates for each candidate will be chosen. The actual delegates will not be chosen tomorrow, but at the state convention next month. Here is the breakdown per congressional district along with CQ Politics' prediction of how the delegate allocation will go.

CD Del. Cities PVI Party Rep Notes Obama Clinton
1 6 Gary D+8 D Peter Visclosky Near Chicago, large black population 3 3
2 6 South Bend R+4 D Joe Donnelly Universities, blacks, and blue-collar Catholics 3 3
3 4 Fort Wayne R+16 R Mark Souder Dan Quayle's home base 2 2
4 4 Lafayette R+17 R Steve Buyer Heavy Republican district + Purdue University 2 2
5 4 Indianapolis suburbs R+20 R Dan Burton Very heavy Republican 1 3
6 5 Muncie R+11 R Mike Pence Low-income, high unemployment district 2 3
7 6 Indianapolis D+9 D Andre Carson 30% black 4 2
8 6 Evansville R+9 D Brad Ellsworth Culturally conservative area 3 3
9 6 Bloomington R+7 D Baron Hill Conservative district + Indiana university 3 3
Totals 47           23 24

If this scenario holds, Hillary Clinton will get 24 district-level delegates and Barack Obama will get 23. As usual, the problem in getting more is that so many districts have an even number of delegates, so you need a landslide to get more than half the delegates. The PLEOs and at-large delegates are divvied up according to the statewide totals. Suppose Clinton gets 55% of the vote. Then she gets 5 PLEOs and Obama gets 4 and she gets 9 at-large delegates to his 7. Thus a substantial win for Clinton nets her four delegates, exclusive of the superdelegates. Most of the Indiana superdelegates are biding their time, waiting to see what the Indiana voters want.

Here are three new polls about tomorrow's primaries. Zogby has it closer in Indiana than everyone else. Suspicious.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama
Indiana Zogby May 03 41% 43%
North Carolina Zogby May 03 39% 48%
Oregon SurveyUSA Apr. 30 44% 50%

Here are all the Indiana and North Carolina polls for the past two weeks.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama
Indiana Zogby May 03 41% 43%
Indiana Zogby May 02 42% 43%
Indiana Zogby May 01 42% 42%
Indiana Insider Advantage May 01 47% 40%
Indiana ARG May 01 53% 44%
Indiana IPFW Apr. 30 52% 45%
Indiana TeleResearch Apr. 29 48% 38%
Indiana Rasmussen Apr. 29 46% 41%
Indiana SurveyUSA Apr. 27 52% 43%
Indiana Research 2000 Apr. 24 47% 48%
Indiana Howey-Gauge Apr. 24 45% 47%
Indiana ARG Apr. 24 50% 45%
Indiana Selzer Apr. 23 38% 41%
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama
North Carolina Zogby May 03 39% 48%
North Carolina Zogby May 02 37% 46%
North Carolina Zogby May 01 34% 50%
North Carolina Research 2000 May 01 44% 51%
North Carolina Rasmussen May 01 40% 49%
North Carolina Insider Advantage May 01 44% 49%
North Carolina ARG May 01 41% 52%
North Carolina Mason-Dixon Apr. 29 42% 49%
North Carolina Insider Advantage Apr. 29 44% 42%
North Carolina SurveyUSA Apr. 28 44% 49%
North Carolina Rasmussen Apr. 28 37% 51%
North Carolina ARG Apr. 27 42% 52%

Tom Friedman has a column that is well worth reading. It is how we need a President who is willing to get on TV at 8 P.M. and tell the American people the truth--that America is headed in the wrong direction--and that allies and competitors are catching up fast. You only have to compare JFK airport with Singapore's, Penn Station with Berlin's central station, and observe the investments countries in Asia are making in the future to begin to the see the problem. Friedman's point is that we need a President brave enough to tell the American people that driving wasteful SUVs that run on foreign oil supplied by terrorist-friendly autocrats and paid for with money borrowed from China is a receipe for disaster down the road.

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.


Source Clinton Obama Obama-Clinton
Washington Post 1593 1724 +131
NY Times 1599 1733 +134
AP 1607 1742 +135
CNN 1599 1736 +137
ABC 1602 1744 +142
CBS 1601 1737 +136
MSNBC 1603 1738 +135

Needed to win: 2025

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster