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News: Updated May 06

Obama Obama won
Clinton Clinton won
Clinton: won popular vote
Obama: most delegates
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News from the Votemaster

If you are one of the 32% of the readers of this site who use Firefox, it is now possible to install a plugin that displays the electoral college scores for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton whenever you start Firefox. To install the plugin, just visit and click on Install now and then restart Firefox. The electoral vote score will appear automatically in the status bar at the bottom of the screen. If you don't have Firefox, go get it at It is a great browser, very stable, with many handy features. Thanks to Michael James from for writing the plugin.

Today is yet another "do-or-die" day with primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. There are three plausible scenarios. First, Hillary Clinton wins both of them, in which case a lot of people are going to be having second thoughts about Barack Obama. Voters may start to think of him as a one-month wonder. Second, Obama wins both of them. If so, the pressure on Clinton to withdraw will become immense. Party leaders will openly come out and tell her to quit for the sake of the party. Third, a split decision, in which case the race will probably muddle on. If Obama wins North Carolina by a larger margin than Clinton wins Indiana, then the math starts to kick in. He will have a lead of roughly 140 delegates with only 217 pledged delegates yet to be elected. That's a big hill for Clinton to climb.

Below are the polls for both Indiana and North Carolina for the past two weeks. The top four for Indiana and the top three for North Carolina are new today. As you can see, there is considerable spread, mostly due to how the pollsters gauge likely voters, how they deal with people who have already voted, and how many independents they think will vote in the Democratic primaries.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama
Indiana Zogby May 04 42% 44%
Indiana SurveyUSA May 04 54% 42%
Indiana Suffolk U. May 04 49% 43%
Indiana ARG May 04 53% 45%
Indiana Zogby May 03 41% 43%
Indiana Zogby May 02 42% 43%
Indiana Zogby May 01 42% 42%
Indiana Insider Advantage May 01 47% 40%
Indiana ARG May 01 53% 44%
Indiana IPFW Apr. 30 52% 45%
Indiana TeleResearch Apr. 29 48% 38%
Indiana Rasmussen Apr. 29 46% 41%
Indiana SurveyUSA Apr. 27 52% 43%
Indiana Research 2000 Apr. 24 47% 48%
Indiana Howey-Gauge Apr. 24 45% 47%
Indiana ARG Apr. 24 50% 45%
Indiana Selzer Apr. 23 38% 41%
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama
North Carolina Insider Advantage May 05 45% 48%
North Carolina Zogby May 04 40% 48%
North Carolina ARG May 04 42% 50%
North Carolina Zogby May 03 39% 48%
North Carolina Zogby May 02 37% 46%
North Carolina Zogby May 01 34% 50%
North Carolina Research 2000 May 01 44% 51%
North Carolina Rasmussen May 01 40% 49%
North Carolina Insider Advantage May 01 44% 49%
North Carolina ARG May 01 41% 52%
North Carolina Mason-Dixon Apr. 29 42% 49%
North Carolina Insider Advantage Apr. 29 44% 42%
North Carolina SurveyUSA Apr. 28 44% 49%
North Carolina Rasmussen Apr. 28 37% 51%
North Carolina ARG Apr. 27 42% 52%

We have one general election poll today. Rasmussen has McCain beating Obama in Texas 48% to 43% and beating Clinton in Texas 49% to 43%.

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.


Source Clinton Obama Obama-Clinton
Washington Post 1607 1743 +136
NY Times 1602 1735 +133
AP 1608 1745 +137
CNN 1602 1745 +143
ABC 1604 1748 +142
CBS 1603 1745 +136
MSNBC 1611 1746 +135

Needed to win: 2025

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster