Public Option Defeated in Senate Finance Committee     Permalink

An amendment by Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) to add a public option to the Senate Finance Committee bill written by Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) failed to pass the committee. The vote was 15-8 against it. All Republicans on the committee voted against it, as did Democratic senators Baucus, Carper, Conrad, Lincoln, and Bill Nelson.

A second amendment sponsored by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) went down to defeat by a vote of 13-10. Baucus, Conrad, Lincoln, and all 10 Republicans voted against it. What happens next is unclear. Rockefeller said he would vote against the bill in its current form. If it really meant it and is joined by one other Democrat, that will put chairman Baucus under pressure to do something. But even after a bill passes the committee, it has to be merged with the HELP bill and then be merged with whatever bill the House passes, likely with a public option. Anything can still happen.

Palin Wildly Popular with the Republican Base     Permalink

Despite losing the Vice Presidency and quitting as governor of Alaska barely halfway into her first term, Sarah Palin is extremely popular with the Republican base but far less so with elected Republican officials. How come? To many social conservatives, Palin embodies exactly what they want in a politician: a no-nonsense ordinary person not infected with beltwayitis who hedges everything and never makes an unambiguous statement. Palin is against abortion, gay marriage, cap-and-trade, a public option in the health care system and much more. She is for a strong defense and drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Her supporters say they know where she stands on everything and that she doesn't know so much about public policy issues isn't so important. What's in her heart in what counts.

Professional Republican politicians are scared to death of her. She would be an extremely formidable candidate in the 2012 Republican presidential primaries, but they know full well that if she is the GOP nominee, she's going to make 1964 look like a real squeaker. A substantial fraction of the Republican voters will then vote for Obama or stay home on election day and nearly all the Democrats and independents will vote for Obama. It will be Armageddon for the GOP.

What with a recent poll showing the people of Minnesota not wanting Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) to run for President by a margin of 55% to 30%, the pros have a strong preference for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney or in second place former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. Romney is seen as a solid, if boring, guy who won't do or say anything crazy, and who is reasonably presidential. Huckabee is ideologically not that far from Palin, but he is far less in-your-face and he doesn't drive independents to distraction the way Palin does. He's sort of Palin-lite. But the base doesn't want lite. It wants the real thing. So if Palin's popularity and fundraising holds up until 2012, she's going to be a real problem, the same as the Democrats would have if they were to nominate Rep. Dennis Kucinich.

Conservative Party Candidate Rolls Up Endorsements in NY-23     Permalink

To the dismay of the Republican party, the Conservative Party's candidate for Congress in NY-23, Doug Hoffman, is picking up endorsements in the special election to be held Nov. 3. The seat is vacant because former representative John McHugh, a military expert, was nominated by President Obama to be Secretary of the Army. If Hoffman gets a substantial number of votes, that could sink the Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, and thus help elect Democrat Bill Owens in this R+1 district. Scozzafava's sin is being too moderate for many upstate Republicans. In a sense, her nomination was a good idea because she will need votes from independents to win in this district. What she wasn't expecting was a serious challenge from the right.

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