Republicans Outraise Democrats
The third quarter
are now in and Republican House candidates have raised
$104 million compared to the Democrats' $89 million. In the Senate, the top 18 races saw the Republicans bring in
$60 million to the Democrats $40 million.
In addition, as a result of the recent Supreme Court ruling removing all restrictions on what outside groups
can spend, there has been another $150 million raised, largely by Republican-oriented groups such
as the Chamber of Commerce. Much of the Republicans' money has been coming from a small number of extremely
wealthy donors who are free to give whatever change they can spare to outside groups. In the past their donations had
to go through the official party committees. Such donations are (1) limited to a fairly low maximum per year and
(2) public. Donations to outside groups are unlimited and secret.
Although most attention this year has been on Congress, there are also 37 governor's mansions up for grabs.
This year they are exceptionally important because in most states the new governors get to approve or veto the
legislatures' plans to gerrymander the new congressional districts. A Democratic governor can prevent a
Republican legislature from running amok and vice versa. In this light, the fact that the
Republican Governors Association raised $30 million in the third quarter while the Democratic Governors
Association raised only $10 million is significant. In addition, this big advantage will improve the
presidential prospects of RGA chairman Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS), although they seem slim unless all the
other candidates implode.
Dem Hopes in the South Rest on Turnout of Black Voters
While many of the constituencies that President Obama rode to victory on in 2008 have lost much of their
enthusiasm for him, there is one group that still regards him as a superhero: black voters. If they turn out
in large numbers this year, some of the freshman House members elected in 2008 may survive.
However, these members have to
walk a fine line.
If they praise him too much, it will help bring out blacks but may have a negative effect on whites. Also, some
of the newbies are Blue Dogs who voted against Obama's major initiatives, such as health care. It may be hard to
convince black voters to support a candidate who is viewed as Republican-lite by many blacks. Still, this may be their
only hope, so the DNC is planning to spend 10 times as much money as it did in 2006 to get out the black vote.
The pitch will be: "This election is a referendum on the first black President and you need to show your support
for him." But that has to be done in a way that doesn't alienate white voters, a tricky task.
Foreclosures Becoming a Campaign Issue in Key States
Three of five states with the most foreclosures, Nevada, California, and Florida, have competitive
races for governor and senator, as well as some bitterly fought House races, and the foreclosures are
becoming a political issue.
Democratic candidates are generally in favor of a moratorium on foreclosures (because that would help
homeowners in trouble) whereas Republicans generally oppose it (because that would help banks in trouble).
Top Republican Candidates Skip Palin Fundraiser
Sarah Palin held a fundraiser
in Anaheim, California, yesterday and behind her were Republican candidates for offices high and low. Well, make
that medium and low. The top two Republican candidates in the state, Carly Fiorina, who is running for the Senate,
and Meg Whitman,who is running for governor, didn't bother to show up. Could it be mere coincidence that in a
state where the top two Republican candidates are women they didn't have time to show up for a speech by another
woman--who just happens to be the most popular figure in the Republican Party at the moment?
No way. Both Fiorina and Whitman, are cold, calculating former CEOs of large companies. They clearly realize
that being associated with Palin in any way will only be a drain on their campaigns as they go into the
homestretch. They are desperately trying to convince independents in this blue state to vote for them, and
both of them know that most independents take a dim view of Palin.
There are clear implications of this for 2012 though, should Palin decide to give up making $10 million
a year and run for President.
She is one of the most polarizing figures in American politics since Alabama's governor George Wallace.
People either love her or hate her.
There is no middle ground. If she runs and her main opponent is Mitt Romney (or someone else from the business
wing of the Republican Party), it will tear the party apart.
Today's Polls: CO OR PA-15
|| Michael Bennet*
|| Ken Buck
|| Oct 14
|| Oct 14
|| Ron Wyden*
|| Jim Huffman
|| Oct 12
|| Oct 14
|| John Callahan
|| Charlie Dent*
|| Oct 05
|| Oct 13
|| Muhlenberg Coll.
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