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News from the Votemaster

Three Republican Senate Seats Up for Grabs     Permalink

Last week we looked at Democratic Senate seats that are likely to be competitive. Today let's look at Republican-held seats that might flip. These three are at the top of everyone's list.


Challenger Challenger   Notes           Polls
Candidate unknown

Candidate unknown

Angus King

With Olympia Snowe's sudden retirement, this seat suddenly became the Democrat's #1 pickup opportunity. When former Democrat and former governor Angus King announced he was running as an independent, it shook up the race completely and scared off all the serious Democrats who were afraid of a three-way race which would allow the Republican to eke out a win. King has refused to say which party he will caucus with, but observers expect him to caucus with the Democrats, like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). As a consequence, the Democratic primary is among relatively unknown candidates and the national party is probably going to ignore the winner and tacitly support King. In contrast, the Republican primary features all the state's heavyweight Republicans, including the Secretary of State, Treasurer, and Attorney General.


Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Scott Brown

Elizabeth Warren

This is the seat second most likely to flip in the Senate. Scott Brown won a special election to fill the seat of the late senator Ted Kennedy, but he had the good fortune to be running against a lazy and arrogant candidate who felt that campaigning was beneath her dignity. That won't happen again. Most likely he will face Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard professor and strong consumer rights advocate, who will pull in tons of out-of-state money and who took the lead in the polls within a month of entering the race. Still, Brown has a lot of money in the bank. It will be close.


Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Dean Heller

Shelley Berkley

Dean Heller was appointed to the Senate by Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-NV) when the Republican Senate caucus basically forced John Ensign out of the race. The caucus did this due to Ensign's long-term affair with the wife of one of his staffers followed by a very clumsy attempt to buy everyone's silence. Nevada has become a purple state which Obama carried easily in 2008. With him on the top of the ticket again in 2012, Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV), the likely Democratic nominee, has a good shot at knocking him off. In addition, voters tend not to like appointed senators except in very red or very blue states, which Nevada is not.

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Previous headlines

Apr11 Santorum Quits Race
Apr10 Competitive Races for Democratic Senate Seats
Apr04 Romney Wins a Tripleheader
Apr04 Obama to Run Against Ryan
Apr03 Romney Advisors Trying to Decide Whether to Unleash the Candidate
Apr03 Primaries in D.C., Maryland, and Wisconsin Today
Apr03 Romney Advuisors Trying to Decide Whether to Unleash the Candidate
Apr03 Federal Mandates Have Been Around for over 200 Years
Mar30 Supreme Court Could Become an Election Issue
Mar27 Lose to Win?
Mar25 Santorum Continues His Southern Winning Streak in Louisiana
Mar25 Can Romney Clear the Etch a Sketch?
Mar24 Santorum Headed for Win in Louisiana Primary Today
Mar24 Club for Growth Buying Airtime Against Lugar
Mar21 Romney Wins Illinois by 12%
Mar21 Maine Senate Race Candidates Now Known
Mar20 Romney Expected to Win Illinois Primary Today
Mar20 Republicans to Propose Major Tax Reform Today
Mar19 Romney Wins Puerto Rico
Mar18 No Results from the Raucous Caucus
Mar18 Puerto Rico in the Spotlight Today
Mar11 Santorum Wins Kansas Caucus
Mar10 Santorum Favorite to Win Kansas Caucus Today
Mar10 Angus King Endorses Obama
Mar07 Romney wins Ohio and five other states, Santorum wins three states
Mar06 Today is Super Tuesday
Mar06 Independent Throws Maine Senate Race into Turmoil
Mar04 Romney Wins Washington, Paul Second (Maybe)
Mar03 Washington State Holds Caucuses Today
Mar03 Maine Senate Field Taking Shape
Feb29 Romney Barely Wins Michigan
Feb29 Olympia Snow Announces Her Retirement
Feb28 Michigan Too Close to Call
Feb28 Kerrey May Run for the Senate in Nebraska
Feb23 Romney Attacks, Santorum Defends, Nothing Much Changes
Feb23 Of Vaginas and Veeps
Feb21 Too Late for a White Knight
Feb21 Another Republican Debate Tomorrow
Feb17 Santorum Leading Romney in Michigan
Feb12 Romney Wins the CPAC Straw Poll

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