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News from the Votemaster

Romney Sweeps all Five Northeast Primaries     Permalink

With only Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul as official opponents, Mitt Romney swept to easy victories in five primaries yesterday. Nevertheless, even with such weak opponents, in only one state, Connecticut, did he crack 2/3 of the vote, and there just barely with 67.4%. And this is in the region of the country where he is best known and where he is judged by how he governed in Massachusetts rather than by what he was forced to say to placate the base on the primary campaign trail. Nevertheless, come election day, most Republicans are either going to vote for him or vote against President Obama, which is ultimately scored the same way. Here are the primary results.

State Romney Paul Santorum Gingrich
Connecticut 67% 14% 7% 10%
Delaware 57% 11% 6% 27%
New York 62% 16% 9% 13%
Pennsylvania 58% 13% 18% 11%
Rhode Island 63% 24% 6% 6%

Romney now has about 844 delegates, with Santorum second at 260, Gingrich third at 137, and Paul fourth with 79 delegates. Although Romney needs 1144 delegates to get the nomination, it is hard to see how he can be stopped at this point. Romney clearly understands that the primaries are effectively over and the general election campaign has started. In his victory speech yesterday, Romney ignored his nominal primary opponents and just attacked Obama's economic policies. He said his vision is that of free people starting new business and hiring more people, making labor scarce and forcing wages up. Probably nobody, not even Obama, would disagree with that vision much, but the devil is in the details. A lot of those details, like the Republican tax plan, which cuts the top tax rate and (partially) pays for it by cutting middle-class entitlements like Medicare, are going to be front and center for the next 7 months.

Tom Smith Wins Pennsylvania GOP Senatorial Primary     Permalink

While the presidential primaries are getting most of the news today, there were other important elections held yesterday as well. In Pennsylvania, wealthy businessman Tom Smith, who spent $5 million of his own money in the campaign, emerged the winner of a multiway Republican primary. He will face Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) in the general election. No doubt Smith thinks daily about how another rich businessman, Ron Johnson, defeated incumbent senator Russ Feingold in Wisconsin in 2010. However, there are clear differences between the two races. First, Pennsylvania is a blue state and Wisconsin is a purple state, so any Democrat starts out with an edge in the Keystone state. Second, Casey is far more conservative than the outspoken and liberal Feingold, making it much more difficult for Smith to attack Casey from the right. For example, Smith can't go after Casey for supporting abortion since Casey also opposes abortion. Third, although Pennsylvania normally votes Democratic in presidential elections, Obama is likely to spend at least some time and money campaigning there, which will have the effect of activating the Democratic base and getting them to vote. None of the other states held senatorial primaries yesterday. New York's is on June 26 and Connecticut's is on Aug. 14.

Critz Defeats Altmire in Pennsylvania Democratic House Primary     Permalink

In another widely watched race, Rep. Mark Critz (D-PA) defeated Rep. Jason Altmire (D-PA) in a contest which pitted two Democratic incumbents against each other. This battle was set up when the Republicans won control of the state legislature and governor's mansion in 2010, allowing them to draw the new congressional district lines.

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Previous headlines

Apr16 Three Republican Senate Seats Up for Grabs
Apr11 Santorum Quits Race
Apr10 Competitive Races for Democratic Senate Seats
Apr04 Romney Wins a Tripleheader
Apr04 Obama to Run Against Ryan
Apr03 Romney Advisors Trying to Decide Whether to Unleash the Candidate
Apr03 Primaries in D.C., Maryland, and Wisconsin Today
Apr03 Romney Advuisors Trying to Decide Whether to Unleash the Candidate
Apr03 Federal Mandates Have Been Around for over 200 Years
Mar30 Supreme Court Could Become an Election Issue
Mar27 Lose to Win?
Mar25 Santorum Continues His Southern Winning Streak in Louisiana
Mar25 Can Romney Clear the Etch a Sketch?
Mar24 Santorum Headed for Win in Louisiana Primary Today
Mar24 Club for Growth Buying Airtime Against Lugar
Mar21 Romney Wins Illinois by 12%
Mar21 Maine Senate Race Candidates Now Known
Mar20 Romney Expected to Win Illinois Primary Today
Mar20 Republicans to Propose Major Tax Reform Today
Mar19 Romney Wins Puerto Rico
Mar18 No Results from the Raucous Caucus
Mar18 Puerto Rico in the Spotlight Today
Mar11 Santorum Wins Kansas Caucus
Mar10 Santorum Favorite to Win Kansas Caucus Today
Mar10 Angus King Endorses Obama
Mar07 Romney wins Ohio and five other states, Santorum wins three states
Mar06 Today is Super Tuesday
Mar06 Independent Throws Maine Senate Race into Turmoil
Mar04 Romney Wins Washington, Paul Second (Maybe)
Mar03 Washington State Holds Caucuses Today
Mar03 Maine Senate Field Taking Shape
Feb29 Romney Barely Wins Michigan
Feb29 Olympia Snow Announces Her Retirement
Feb28 Michigan Too Close to Call
Feb28 Kerrey May Run for the Senate in Nebraska
Feb23 Romney Attacks, Santorum Defends, Nothing Much Changes
Feb23 Of Vaginas and Veeps
Feb21 Too Late for a White Knight
Feb21 Another Republican Debate Tomorrow
Feb17 Santorum Leading Romney in Michigan

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