Republican Presidential Candidates

Below is the current list of Republican candidates in roughly the order of most likely to be nominated as their party's nominee to least likely. In previous iterations, we have considered the factors that primary voters may weigh; now we will begin to consider the factors that the conventioneers and the party leadership will have to weigh. Note that some things that may have been helpful in the primaries could be liabilities in the general election. For example, Donald Trump is anti-immigrant, which allowed him to become the frontrunner in the primaries, but will certainly hurt him in the general election

Candidate Advantages Disadvantages
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
  • The most famous Republican candidate
  • Loved by "poke-'em-in-the-eye" voters
  • Has been atop the polls for months
  • Actually created thousands of jobs
  • Can't be bribed
  • Would steal working-class men from the Dems
  • Might be able to put the "Rust Belt" in play
  • Says things no one else dares to say
  • Not a politician
  • Brilliant self-promoter
  • Has won more states than his competitors
  • Will enter the convention #1 in delegates
  • The most infamous Republican candidate
  • Would be crushed by Clinton
  • Many Republicans would refuse to vote for him
  • Sexist and racist remarks will hurt
  • Would have devastating effects down ballot
  • Could damage the GOP for many years to come
  • Not exactly sure where the Middle East is
  • Thinks "nuclear triad" is a rock band
  • His hair gets more attention than Hillary's
  • Hesitated before disavowing the KKK
  • Kind of a thug
Paul Ryan
Paul Ryan
  • Totally acceptable to the establishment
  • Totally acceptable to the GOP's business wing
  • Donors love him; money will roll in
  • Only candidate who can unite the Party
  • Probably the biggest threat to Hillary
  • From a moderate swing state
  • Plainspoken, telegenic
  • Big national profile due to VP run, speakership
  • Mr. Establishment in an anti-establishment year
  • Ideas on the economy are going to be a hard sell
  • Hasn't truly been tested on the national stage
  • Hasn't actually achieved anything in Washington
  • The weightlifting photos are not presidential
  • Nominating him means overriding the voters
  • Tea partiers are not enthusiastic about him
  • Catholic in a heavily Protestant party
  • Ryan run makes Trump third-party run probable
Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz
  • Republican establishment hates him
  • Called Mitch McConnell a liar
  • Tea party darling
  • Young, fiery, and very conservative
  • Surprisingly good at fundraising
  • Excellent speaker and debater
  • Most delegates of any non-Trump candidate
  • Could be nominated without RNC monkey biz
  • Machiavellian "evil genius," like Nixon
  • Loss would put to rest "We need to be nominating true conservatives" narrative
  • Republican establishment hates him
  • First-term senator
  • For a first-term senator, has a lot of enemies
  • Has more enemies than most six-term senators
  • Not very likable
  • Masterminded the 2013 government shutdown
  • Many of his fans are anti-Trump, not pro-Cruz
  • Would have a negative effect down ballot
  • He is not as good as Nixon at hiding dirty tricks
  • If proof of affairs appears, he's toast
  • Unlikely to win election even without proof of affairs
Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney
  • Acceptable to the establishment
  • Totally acceptable to the GOP's business wing
  • Money will roll in in huge amounts
  • Battle-tested; has been to this rodeo before
  • May learn from past mistakes
  • Outside of Trump, has highest name recognition
  • If he loses, it won't permanently damage the Party
  • Mr. Establishment in an anti-establishment year
  • Hillary can save money by firing her oppo team
  • If he couldn't seal the deal in 2012, why now?
  • Anti-blue-collar remarks won't fly with Trumpers
  • Nominating him means overriding the voters
  • Romney run makes Trump third-party run likely
  • Most GOP voters are not enthusiastic about him
  • Mormon in a heavily Protestant party
  • Virulently pro-life; not going to help win women
  • See Stevenson, Adlai; Bryan, William Jennings; Dewey, Thomas E.
John Kasich
John Kasich
  • Twice elected in swing state of Ohio
  • No Republican has won presidency without Ohio
  • Would win some Democrats in general election
  • Has the best political resumé of any of the five candidates
  • Mr. Establishment in an anti-establishment year
  • Lowest name recognition of any candidate
  • GOP voters have shown they don't like him
  • His claim on the nomination no better than Ryan's
  • GOP donors will see him as a bad investment
  • Poor debater; would be crushed by Hillary
  • Actions against Planned Parenthood will hurt
  • Too liberal for Republicans, too conservative for Dems
  • Hasn't been vetted yet; wait till the oppo team gets to him