Republican Presidential Candidates

Below is the December 2016 list of 2016 Republican presidential candidates in roughly the order of most likely to be nominated to least likely. The strengths and weaknesses of each one in the primaries are listed. Note that what is a strength in the primaries may be a weakness in the general election and vice versa. For example, Donald Trump is anti-immigrant, which may help him in the primaries but hurt him in the general election.

Candidate Advantages in Primaries Disadvantages in Primaries
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
  • American-dream type biography
  • Can get votes from all wings of the party
  • Young and telegenic, sort of like Jack Kennedy
  • Very charismatic and likable
  • From the mother of all swing states
  • Sounds presidential when delivering talking points
  • Currently winning the "endorsement" primary
  • Surprised with strong finish in Iowa
  • Establishment may soon pull out all the stops for him
  • Not leading in any early state
  • Has misrepresented elements of his biography
  • First-term senator
  • Something of a lightweight on policy
  • Supported immigration bill before he opposed it
  • Doesn't do well when going off-script
  • Personal finances raise a lot of questions
  • Help for felonious brother-in-law raises a lot of questions
  • Seems more suited to the second slot
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
  • Loved by "poke-'em-in-the-eye" voters
  • Has been atop the polls for months
  • Actually created thousands of jobs
  • Can't be bribed, could self-fund
  • Says things no one else dares to say
  • Not a politician
  • Brilliant self-promoter
  • The most famous Republican candidate
  • Looking good in New Hampshire
  • Would be crushed by Clinton
  • Establishment will do anything to stop him
  • Used to be fairly liberal
  • Not exactly sure where the Middle East is
  • Demeaned John McCain's war record
  • Lots of sexist and racist remarks
  • His hair gets more attention than Hillary's
  • The most infamous Republican candidate
  • Second-place finish in Iowa cost him some momentum
Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz
  • Won Iowa
  • Republican establishment hates him
  • Called Mitch McConnell a liar
  • Tea party darling
  • Young, fiery, and very conservative
  • Surprisingly good at fund raising
  • Excellent speaker and debater
  • Well organized in Super Tuesday states
  • Using his outspoken father Rafael to great effect
  • Winning Iowa often means very little; ask Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee
  • Republican establishment hates him
  • First-term senator
  • For a first-term senator, has a lot of enemies
  • Has more enemies than most six-term senators
  • Not very likable
  • Masterminded the 2013 government shutdown
  • Too establishment for some outsider voters
  • Too outsider for some establishment voters
  • Are evangelical voters enough to take the nomination?
John Kasich
John Kasich
  • Could be establishment fallback if he finishes well in NH and Rubio stumbles
  • Twice elected in swing state of Ohio
  • Would win some Democrats in general election
  • Not well known
  • Running on competence, not ideology
  • Said St. Peter likes poor people
  • Supported Medicaid expansion, Common Core in Ohio
  • Has performed poorly in debates
Jeb Bush
Jeb Bush
  • Establishment likes him
  • Executive experience galore
  • Huge, battle-tested field operation
  • Also from the mother of all swing states
  • Scion of a prominent, powerful political dynasty
  • Super PAC has more money than Uncle Scrooge
  • Lots of endorsements
  • Grassroots hates him
  • Weak campaigner, keeps inserting foot in mouth
  • Has to defend his unpopular brother
  • Wrong positions on immigration & Common Core
  • Married to a Latina
  • Barbara Bush: "We've had enough Bushes"
  • Jeb can fix it? Not so far.
  • The donations have dried up
  • Many of the voters who put him into the governor's mansion are dead
  • Endorsers look ready to jump ship, once Poppy Bush gives his approval
Chris Christie
Chris Christie
  • Aggressive character
  • Ran the RGA well; popular with governors
  • Won election twice in a blue state
  • Would be acceptable to GOP establishment
  • Endorsed by New Hampshire Union Leader
  • Polling badly in home state
  • Hugged Obama
  • Has only recently "discovered" he's ultraconservative
  • Too many establishment candidates in line in front of him
  • Last fat President was William Howard Taft; but White House bathtub is bigger now
  • Lambasted by Newark, NJ Star-Ledger
  • We'll cross that bridge when we come to it—if it is open
Carly Fiorina
Carly Fiorina
  • Ran a Fortune 500 company
  • Can attack Clinton without being called sexist
  • Took on liberal icon Barbara Boxer in 2010
  • Self-made multimillionaire
  • Could self fund in the primaries for a while
  • Good debater
  • Not a politician
  • Was fired from a Fortune 500 Company
  • Got $20 million severance when fired
  • Was crushed by liberal icon Barbara Boxer in 2010
  • No political experience
  • Barebones political operation
  • Not raising enough money
  • Barely registering in the polls any more
  • No more debate invitations will be forthcoming
Ben Carson
Ben Carson
  • Devoted following
  • Was polling very well for a while
  • A more polite version of Donald Trump
  • Not a politician
  • Married to the same woman for 40 years
  • Allows racist voters to say they are not racist
  • Prone to gaffes
  • His numbers are trending downward
  • He's black in a nearly all white party
  • Never held public office
  • Not a dynamic speaker or debater
  • Not politically savvy
  • Campaign staff is in disarray
  • Very weak on foreign policy
  • Does he want to be president or just sell books?
Jim Gilmore
Jim Gilmore
  • Nobody hates him
  • Nobody ever heard of him
  • Lost 2008 Senate race to Mark Warner by 31 points
  • British bookies give the ineligible Arnold Schwarzenegger better odds
  • Not allowed into the Republican debates without a ticket
  • Would only need to remove one shoe to count his vote total in Iowa