State Averages for President and Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for both the presidential race and senatorial race (if there is one), calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

President

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Clinton 35% Trump 63% +28% Nov 30
Alaska Clinton 38% Trump 53% +15% Nov 30
Arizona Clinton 45% Trump 50% +5% Nov 30
Arkansas Clinton 34% Trump 60% +26% Nov 30
California Clinton 61% Trump 34% +27% Nov 30
Colorado Clinton 47% Trump 45% +2% Nov 30
Connecticut Clinton 54% Trump 42% +12% Nov 30
D.C. Clinton 93% Trump 4% +89% Nov 30
Delaware Clinton 53% Trump 42% +11% Nov 30
Florida Clinton 48% Trump 49% +1% Nov 30
Georgia Clinton 46% Trump 51% +5% Nov 30
Hawaii Clinton 65% Trump 28% +37% Nov 30
Idaho Clinton 29% Trump 58% +29% Nov 30
Illinois Clinton 55% Trump 39% +16% Nov 30
Indiana Clinton 38% Trump 57% +19% Nov 30
Iowa Clinton 42% Trump 52% +10% Nov 30
Kansas Clinton 36% Trump 58% +22% Nov 30
Kentucky Clinton 33% Trump 63% +30% Nov 30
Louisiana Clinton 38% Trump 58% +20% Nov 30
Maine Clinton 48% Trump 45% +3% Nov 30
Maryland Clinton 61% Trump 35% +26% Nov 30
Massachusetts Clinton 61% Trump 34% +27% Nov 30
Michigan Clinton 47% Trump 48% +1% Nov 30
Minnesota Clinton 47% Trump 46% +1% Nov 30
Mississippi Clinton 40% Trump 58% +18% Nov 30
Missouri Clinton 38% Trump 57% +19% Nov 30
Montana Clinton 34% Trump 58% +24% Nov 30
Nebraska Clinton 33% Trump 61% +28% Nov 30
Nevada Clinton 47% Trump 45% +2% Nov 30
New Hampshire Clinton 48% Trump 47% +1% Nov 30
New Jersey Clinton 55% Trump 42% +13% Nov 30
New Mexico Clinton 48% Trump 40% +8% Nov 30
New York Clinton 59% Trump 38% +21% Nov 30
North Carolina Clinton 47% Trump 51% +4% Nov 30
North Dakota Clinton 28% Trump 64% +36% Nov 30
Ohio Clinton 44% Trump 52% +8% Nov 30
Oklahoma Clinton 29% Trump 65% +36% Nov 30
Oregon Clinton 52% Trump 41% +11% Nov 30
Pennsylvania Clinton 48% Trump 49% +1% Nov 30
Rhode Island Clinton 55% Trump 40% +15% Nov 30
South Carolina Clinton 40% Trump 56% +16% Nov 30
South Dakota Clinton 32% Trump 62% +30% Nov 30
Tennessee Clinton 35% Trump 61% +26% Nov 30
Texas Clinton 43% Trump 53% +10% Nov 30
Utah Clinton 29% Trump 45% +16% Nov 30
Vermont Clinton 61% Trump 33% +28% Nov 30
Virginia Clinton 50% Trump 45% +5% Nov 30
Washington Clinton 56% Trump 38% +18% Nov 30
West Virginia Clinton 27% Trump 69% +42% Nov 30
Wisconsin Clinton 46% Trump 49% +3% Nov 30
Wyoming Clinton 23% Trump 70% +47% Nov 30


Senate

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Ron Crumpton 36% Richard Shelby* 64% +28% Nov 30
Alaska Ray Metcalfe 11% Lisa Murkowski* 44% +33% Nov 30
Arizona Ann Kirkpatrick 41% John McCain* 53% +12% Nov 30
Arkansas Conner Eldridge 36% John Boozman* 60% +24% Nov 30
California Kamala Harris 63% Loretta Sanchez (D) 37% +26% Nov 30
Colorado Michael Bennet* 49% Darryl Glenn 45% +4% Nov 30
Connecticut Richard Blumenthal* 63% Dan Carter 35% +28% Nov 30
Florida Patrick Murphy 44% Marco Rubio* 50% +6% Nov 30
Georgia Jim Barksdale 41% Johnny Isakson* 55% +14% Nov 30
Hawaii Brian Schatz* 74% John Carroll 22% +52% Nov 30
Idaho Jerry Sturgill 28% Mike Crapo* 66% +38% Nov 30
Illinois Tammy Duckworth 54% Mark Kirk* 40% +14% Nov 30
Indiana Evan Bayh 42% Todd Young 52% +10% Nov 30
Iowa Patty Judge 36% Chuck Grassley* 60% +24% Nov 30
Kansas Patrick Wiesner 32% Jerry Moran* 62% +30% Nov 30
Kentucky Jim Gray 43% Rand Paul* 57% +14% Nov 30
Louisiana Foster Campbell 18% John Kennedy 25% +7% Nov 30
Maryland Chris Van Hollen 60% Kathy Szeliga 36% +24% Nov 30
Missouri Jason Kander 46% Roy Blunt* 49% +3% Nov 30
Nevada Catherine Cortez-Masto 47% Joe Heck 44% +3% Nov 30
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan 48% Kelly Ayotte* 47% +1% Nov 30
New York Chuck Schumer* 70% Wendy Long 27% +43% Nov 30
North Carolina Deborah Ross 45% Richard Burr* 51% +6% Nov 30
North Dakota Eliot Glassheim 17% John Hoeven* 79% +62% Nov 30
Ohio Ted Strickland 40% Rob Portman* 58% +18% Nov 30
Oklahoma Mike Workman 25% James Lankford* 67% +42% Nov 30
Oregon Ron Wyden* 57% Mark Callahan 34% +23% Nov 30
Pennsylvania Katie McGinty 47% Pat Toomey* 49% +2% Nov 30
South Carolina Thomas Dixon 37% Tim Scott* 61% +24% Nov 30
South Dakota Jay Williams 28% John Thune* 72% +44% Nov 30
Utah Misty Snow 27% Mike Lee* 68% +41% Nov 30
Vermont Patrick Leahy* 61% Scott Milne 33% +28% Nov 30
Washington Patty Murray* 60% Chris Vance 40% +20% Nov 30
Wisconsin Russ Feingold 47% Ron Johnson* 50% +3% Nov 30