State Averages for President and Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for both the presidential race and senatorial race (if there is one), calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

President

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Clinton 35% Trump 63% +28% Nov 30
Alaska Clinton 38% Trump 53% +15% Nov 30
Arizona Clinton 45% Trump 50% +5% Nov 30
Arkansas Clinton 34% Trump 60% +26% Nov 30
California Clinton 61% Trump 34% +27% Nov 30
Colorado Clinton 47% Trump 45% +2% Nov 30
Connecticut Clinton 54% Trump 42% +12% Nov 30
D.C. Clinton 93% Trump 4% +89% Nov 30
Delaware Clinton 53% Trump 42% +11% Nov 30
Florida Clinton 48% Trump 49% +1% Nov 30
Georgia Clinton 46% Trump 51% +5% Nov 30
Hawaii Clinton 65% Trump 28% +37% Nov 30
Idaho Clinton 29% Trump 58% +29% Nov 30
Illinois Clinton 55% Trump 39% +16% Nov 30
Indiana Clinton 38% Trump 57% +19% Nov 30
Iowa Clinton 42% Trump 52% +10% Nov 30
Kansas Clinton 36% Trump 58% +22% Nov 30
Kentucky Clinton 33% Trump 63% +30% Nov 30
Louisiana Clinton 38% Trump 58% +20% Nov 30
Maine Clinton 48% Trump 45% +3% Nov 30
Maryland Clinton 61% Trump 35% +26% Nov 30
Massachusetts Clinton 61% Trump 34% +27% Nov 30
Michigan Clinton 47% Trump 48% +1% Nov 30
Minnesota Clinton 47% Trump 46% +1% Nov 30
Mississippi Clinton 40% Trump 58% +18% Nov 30
Missouri Clinton 38% Trump 57% +19% Nov 30
Montana Clinton 34% Trump 58% +24% Nov 30
Nebraska Clinton 33% Trump 61% +28% Nov 30
Nevada Clinton 47% Trump 45% +2% Nov 30
New Hampshire Clinton 48% Trump 47% +1% Nov 30
New Jersey Clinton 55% Trump 42% +13% Nov 30
New Mexico Clinton 48% Trump 40% +8% Nov 30
New York Clinton 59% Trump 38% +21% Nov 30
North Carolina Clinton 47% Trump 51% +4% Nov 30
North Dakota Clinton 28% Trump 64% +36% Nov 30
Ohio Clinton 44% Trump 52% +8% Nov 30
Oklahoma Clinton 29% Trump 65% +36% Nov 30
Oregon Clinton 52% Trump 41% +11% Nov 30
Pennsylvania Clinton 48% Trump 49% +1% Nov 30
Rhode Island Clinton 55% Trump 40% +15% Nov 30
South Carolina Clinton 40% Trump 56% +16% Nov 30
South Dakota Clinton 32% Trump 62% +30% Nov 30
Tennessee Clinton 35% Trump 61% +26% Nov 30
Texas Clinton 43% Trump 53% +10% Nov 30
Utah Clinton 29% Trump 45% +16% Nov 30
Vermont Clinton 61% Trump 33% +28% Nov 30
Virginia Clinton 50% Trump 45% +5% Nov 30
Washington Clinton 56% Trump 38% +18% Nov 30
West Virginia Clinton 27% Trump 69% +42% Nov 30
Wisconsin Clinton 46% Trump 49% +3% Nov 30
Wyoming Clinton 23% Trump 70% +47% Nov 30


Senate

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Arizona Candidate Unknown 46% Jeff Flake* 50% +4% Jan 01
California Dianne Feinstein* 61% Candidate Unknown 39% +22% Jan 01
Connecticut Chris Murphy* 55% Candidate Unknown 43% +12% Jan 01
Delaware Tom Carper* 66% Candidate Unknown 29% +37% Jan 01
Florida Bill Nelson* 55% Candidate Unknown 42% +13% Jan 01
Hawaii Mazie Hirono* 63% Candidate Unknown 37% +26% Jan 01
Indiana Joe Donnelly* 50% Candidate Unknown 44% +6% Jan 01
Maine ACandidate UnknownD 53% ACandidate UnknownR 31% +22% Jan 01
Maryland Ben Cardin* 55% Candidate Unknown 27% +28% Jan 01
Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren* 54% Candidate Unknown 46% +8% Jan 01
Michigan Debbie Stabenow* 59% Candidate Unknown 38% +21% Jan 01
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar* 65% Candidate Unknown 31% +34% Jan 01
Mississippi Candidate Unknown 40% Roger Wicker* 57% +17% Jan 01
Missouri Claire McCaskill* 55% Candidate Unknown 39% +16% Jan 01
Montana Jon Tester* 49% Candidate Unknown 45% +4% Jan 01
Nebraska Candidate Unknown 42% Deb Fischer* 58% +16% Jan 01
Nevada Candidate Unknown 45% Dean Heller* 46% +1% Jan 01
New Jersey Bob Menendez* 59% Candidate Unknown 40% +19% Jan 01
New Mexico Martin Heinrich* 51% Candidate Unknown 45% +6% Jan 01
New York Kirsten Gillibrand* 72% Candidate Unknown 27% +45% Jan 01
North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp* 50% Candidate Unknown 49% +1% Jan 01
Ohio Sherrod Brown* 50% Candidate Unknown 45% +5% Jan 01
Pennsylvania Bob Casey* 54% Candidate Unknown 45% +9% Jan 01
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse* 65% Candidate Unknown 35% +30% Jan 01
Tennessee Candidate Unknown 30% Bob Corker* 65% +35% Jan 01
Texas Candidate Unknown 41% Ted Cruz* 57% +16% Jan 01
Utah Candidate Unknown 30% Orrin Hatch* 65% +35% Jan 01
Vermont BCandidate UnknownD 71% BCandidate UnknownR 25% +46% Jan 01
Virginia Tim Kaine* 53% Candidate Unknown 47% +6% Jan 01
Washington Maria Cantwell* 60% Candidate Unknown 40% +20% Jan 01
West Virginia Joe Manchin* 61% Candidate Unknown 37% +24% Jan 01
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin* 52% Candidate Unknown 46% +6% Jan 01
Wyoming Candidate Unknown 22% John Barrasso* 76% +54% Jan 01