Maloney Will Challenge Gillibrand     Permalink

Despite repeated requests from the entire Democratic Party establishment to stay put--from the President on down--as well as her friends, Rep. Carolyn Maloney appears set to challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) in a primary next year. It will be a tough fight for her because party leaders are doing their best to cut off her sources of funding and isolate her in every way they can. The President has already said that he would actively campaign for Gillibrand in New York City, which is Maloney's base. While Maloney's argument is that she is more liberal than Gillibrand, the senator has been rapidly changing some of the more conservative positions she took while representing a rural upstate district and she has achieved one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate. The bottom line is that Maloney feels it was her turn to become a senator and she clearly resents a newbie getting the job.

Sununu Will Not Run for Senate in New Hampshire     Permalink

Former senator John Sununu has decided against running for the Senate, despite urgings from state Republicans. He is probably the strongest candidate the Republicans had for the open seat being vacated by Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH). The Democratic nominee, Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH), can thus breathe a bit easier, although his fundraising to date has been weak.

Sixty is Not Forever     Permalink

The Democrats and friends now have 60 seats in the Senate, but the composition is not made of marble, like much of the chamber itself. Senators come and go, even between elections. The can die (e.g., Craig Thomas), resign (e.g., Hillary Clinton) or jump ship (e.g., Arlen Specter). Generally, when a Senate seat is vacant, the governor appoints the new senator until the next even-numbered year, although a few states (like Massachusetts) hold special elections. And in a couple of states (e.g., Wyoming), the governor must appoint someone from a list drawn up by the previous senator's party or at least a member of his party. But in all the other states, the governor has a free hand in picking the new senator (sometimes too free, as recent events in Illinois have demonstrated).

With this in mind, one could ask: "Which states have at least one senator not from the governor's party?" In the event of a vacancy in such a state, the governor might have the opportunity for mischief. The states with at least one Democratic senator and a Republican governor are: Alaska (Sarah Palin), California (Arnold Schwarzenegger), Connecticut (Jodi Rell), Florida (Charlie Crist), Hawaii (Linda Lingle), Indiana (Mitch Daniels), Lousiana (Bobby Jindal), Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty), Nevada (Jim Gibbons), Nebraska (Dave Heineman), North Dakota (John Hoeven), Rhode Island (Don Carcieri), South Dakota (Mike Rounds), and Vermont (James Douglas). Are any Democratic seats in danger there? The ones that come to mind first are the two in Hawaii. Daniel Inouye is 84 and Daniel Akaka is also 84. Sen Tim Johnson (D-SD) suffered cerebral bleeding in 2006 but has been making a slow recovery since then. Senators don't live forever and being a senator gives you great medical care but even people with great medical care can have heart attacks or be diagnosed with cancer.

What about Republican senators from states with a Democratic governor? These are: Iowa (Chet Culver), Kansas (Mark Parkinson), Kentucky (Steve Beshear), Maine (John Baldacci), Missouri (Jay Nixon), New Hampshire (John Lynch), North Carolina (Beverly Perdue), Ohio (Ted Strickland), Oklahoma (Brad Henry), Tennessee (Phil Bredesen), and Wyoming (Dave Freudenthal), Although Wyoming is one of the states that requires the governor to choose from a list drawn up by the previous incumbent's party. The only Republican senator who might conceivably be replaced by the other side's governor is Jim Bunning, who has threatened to resign if Mitch McConnell really turns the screws on him to prevent his reelection, but that is not a likely event. None of the Republican senators in these states is really elderly.

In addition, there are a number of states where a senator might be replaced by someone of his own party, such as would happen if Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) should die or resign as the governor of West Virginia, Joe Manchin, is a Democrat.

In general, it is surprising how many blue states have Republican governors or senators and how many red states have Democratic governors or senators. Here is the list. It is located on the "Data galore" page in case you wish to refer to it in the future. Columns 2-4 refer to the 2008 presidential election. The last three columns refer to the House delegation. The seats marked with an asterisk are up for election in 2009 or 2010. The data are available here in .csv format

Minnesota Supreme Court Rules for Franken; Coleman Concedes     Permalink

In a ruling yesterday, the Minnesota state Supreme Court decided 5-0 that Al Franken (D) won the Nov. 2008 senatorial election and is entitled to an election certificate. He beat his opponent by 312 votes. The court rejected the claim by Norm Coleman (R) that the lower court made major mistakes and should be reversed. The court said: "Al Franken received the highest number of votes legally and is entitled under Minnesota Statute 204C.40 (2008) to receive the certificate of election.

At 4 P.M. Minnesota time, Norm Coleman (R) held a press conference and conceded defeat. Furthermore, Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), said he would sign the election certificate. Thus Al Franken will be sworn into the Senate when that body returns from recess next week. However, Franken could take the oath of office from a local judge if he wishes. It has been done before. Franken would then be allowed to start hiring staff so he can hit the ground running Monday.

Seats on key committees have been reserved for Franken, including the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions committee and the Judiciary committee. These seats will instantly put him in the middle of the health reform discussion and Supreme Court appointments. He would likely also get seats on two less important commmittes, such as Indian Affairs and Aging.

The seating of Franken means the Democrats will have 58 seats as well the the support of two independent senators who caucus with them, Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT). In theory, they will then have the necessary 60 votes to invoke cloture and end filibusters. The last time they had 60 seats was in the 94th Congress, from 1975 to 1977. But as Yogi Berra once put it: "In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not." Whereas minority leader Mitch McConnell has a more-or-less iron grip on his caucus, majority leader Harry Reid does not. And McConnell has no weapons at his disposal to enforce discipline whereas Reid has many, but he doesn't use them.

The Politics of Global Warming     Permalink

The House passed the Waxman-Markey bill Friday to take a first step in curbing global warming. The vote was 219 to 212. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), Alcee Hastings (D-FL), and John Sullivan (R-OK) did not vote. The CA-32 seat has been vacant since Hilda Solis resigned to become Secretary of Labor.

For anyone who thought representatives were in Congress to do the best for their districts and the country, free of petty concerns like politics, this vote may be enlightening. All but eight Republicans voted "nay." This was probably the best they could do. If it becomes law, Obama will get the credit, so why not try to scuttle it and curry favor with voters who don't believe in global warming?

The eight Republicans who voted "aye" are: Mike Castle, Mark Kirk, Leonard Lance, Frank LoBiondo, Mary Bono Mack, John McHugh, Dave Reichert, and Chris Smith. Castle and Kirk may run for the Senate in very blue states (Delaware and Illinois, respectively) and McHugh is about to join the Obama administration. The others are all likely to face highly competitive races in coastal states where global warming is a big deal (California, New Jersey, and Washington) and a vote against this bill might sink them in 2010. All except Smith represent districts that Obama won in 2008.

What about the Democrats? Forty-four of them voted against it. Three of them, Peter DeFazio (D-OR), Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), and Pete Stark (D-CA) are liberals who felt it had been watered down beyond repair. Artur Davis is running for governor of a very conservative state (Alabama). But the rest are blue dogs who mostly represent conservative districts. Here is the breakdown.

Gov. Sanford Blows Chances for 2012 Republican Nomination     Permalink

Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC), a deeply religious conservative Christian and frequently mentioned 2012 presidential candidate was caught with his pants down. Like Sen. John Ensign (R-NV), the married governor has admitted to having had an extramarital affair. The woman lives in Argentina and has been identified only as "Maria" so far. That pretty much ends any chances he might have had to be the Republican nominee in 2012. While Democrats don't care much about politicians having affairs, the Republican base cares a lot about it.

An interesting question is why did Sanford admit to the affair and thus destroy has political career? The reason appears to be that some steamy emails sent by the governor were obtained by a newspaper in December. Undoubtedly Sanford knew they were about to be pub,lished so he had to go for a preemptive strike. Also, his wife knew about the affair.

Republicans like Sanford, Ensign, and Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) aren't alone in having (paid or unpaid) affairs. Democrats such as former governor Eliot Spitzer, Gov. David Paterson (D-NY), and former senator John Edwards have also admitted to affairs. The difference is that the Republicans have all made "family values" the central theme of their campaigns and wooed the Republican base by saying: "Vote for me because I am more moral than the other guy." The Democrats have never made family values a key issues. and can't be charged with hypocrisy as the Republicans can.

It is long obvious that the Republicans need some new young faces and some of the potential candidates, like Ensign and now Sanford have self destructed. Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) gave the rebuttal to one of President Obama's speeches in February and demonstrated that he is not ready for prime time. Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) hasn't destroyed himself yet, but is peripherally ensnared in the long-running Minnesota Senate election contest. The other "new" Republicans, like former Speaker Newt Gingrich and Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS) aren't all that new and young. All this strengthens the chances of Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK), former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney in 2012.

Villaraigosa Will Not Run for Governor of California     Permalink

Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) has announced that he will not run for governor of California in 2010. He had been widely expected to be a candidate but his polls are way down and unemployment in Los Angeles is way up, far above the national and state averages. His personal life is also a mess. His marriage broke up as a result of his affair with a local television newswoman. In other words, Villaraigosa clearly realized that he had little chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

The main Democratic contenders now are former governor (and current Attorney General) Jerry Brown and San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom. If Sen. Dianne Feinstein runs--an outside possibility--she will become the instant favorite. On the Republican side, former CEO of eBay, Meg Whitman is tentatively leading, but an open governor's mansion in the nation's most populous state could yet attract other candidates.

Democrats Have the Edge in the Ohio Senate Race     Permalink

Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) is retiring, and both parties are gearing up for a huge fight in this swing state. Two Democrats are slugging it out for the nomination, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (the establishment candidate) and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (the insurgent). The Republican candidate is almost certain to be former representative and former U.S. trade representative Rob Portman. A new PPP poll shows Fisher leading Portman 41% to 32% and Brunner leading Portman 40% to 32%. While a bloody primary could damage both Democrats, it could also increase name recognition for the winner, something both of them could use. A problem Portman is going to have to deal with no matter which Democrat wins is his close ties to the Bush administration.

Sestak Ramping Up Against Specter     Permalink

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) is ramping up his near-certain campaign against Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA). As expected, Sestak is attacking Specter as a "flight risk," saying that although he is currently a Democrat, before that he was a Republican and before that he was a Democrat. Sestak is saying that Specter's only loyalty is to Specter, whereas he is loyal to the Democratic Party. Of course, with the entire Democratic Party establishment on board for Specter, Sestak has a serious uphill climb. A recent Rasmussen poll puts Specter ahead 51% to 32%. On the other hand, Barack Obama started out way behind Hillary Clinton last year.

Gillibrand Piling Up Endorsements     Permalink

Next door to Pennsylvania, in New York, the establishment-backed incumbent, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), is not standing still--in preparation for a primary challenge from Rep. Carolyn Maloney. She has now gotten the chairmen of 52 of New York's 62 counties to endorse her. Her voting behavior has also changed since she was appointed to Hillary Clinton's Senate seat: she has become the 4th most liberal senator, in the expectation that Maloney will attack her from the left. These two states will form an interesting contrast: a former Republican turned Democrat in Pennsylvania and a former moderate turned liberal in New York. Also, in both cases the establishment backs the incumbent and in both cases the incumbent will have much more money than the challenger. But primaries have small turnouts with a heavy dose of party activists, so even incumbents have to worry.

Of Presidents and Primaries     Permalink

Traditionally, Presidents don't pick sides during primary fights to avoid the potential embarrassment of betting on the wrong horse. Next year may be different, however. President Obama is publicly supporting two incumbent senators in the Northeast, Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY). Both seem likely to face primary opponents. Specter may face Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), a former Vice-Admiral, who will attack Specter for being a turncoat after 28 years in the Senate as a Republican. Gillibrand may face Manhattan-based Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), the lone potential contender after Rahm Emanuel scared off two other Democratic representatives from Long Island, first Steve Israel and now Carolyn McCarthy. Vice President Joe Biden tried to talk Maloney out of it last week, but he may not have succeeded.

While the conventional wisdom is that a primary is bad for the party since the loser's supporters normally are angry and whine that they will stay home on election day rather than vote for the person they just spent months hating, the reality is often different. Barack Obama was hugely strengthened by having to defeat Hillary Clinton, who ultimately was a stronger opponent than John McCain. Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA), and Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), also faced tough primary opponents and yet went on to defeat incumbents to win their respective general elections in 2006. One complication here is the calendar. Pennsylvania's primary is early--May 18, 2010--which gives time for primary-induced wounds to heal. New York's primary is very late--Sept. 14, 2010--so there is little time for the winner to make nice to the loser's supporters.

Also not clear is how serious Obama is at supporting the incumbent in the two states. In Pennsylvania, he has every reason to keep the pressure up on Specter to make him vote like a Democrat. With Gillibrand, who is the protege of the state's powerful senior senator, Chuck Schumer, there is no reason to do that. With the exception of her former opposition to gun control when she represented a rural upstate district, Gillibrand votes like a standard-issue Democrat with a 98.45% lifetime score according to Progressive Punch. This makes her the 4th most liberal member of the Senate, far ahead of, say, liberal stalwart Russ Feingold (#35 this year). And if she has any doubts about how to vote on an upcoming bill, she can just check with Chuck. Maloney's only real case to the voters against Gillibrand is geography: Maloney lives in Manhattan and Gillibrand lives upstate. But more than half the Democratic primary voters are from New York City, so that could resonate. On the other hand, Gillibrand can point out that she has a proven record of getting upstate Republicans to vote for her. Also, Gillibrand is 42 and Maloney is 61 and it takes 20 years to gain real power in the Senate so there is value in starting young.