Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 252   Bush 286

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electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (146)
electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (37)
electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (69)
electoral college tied Exactly tied (0)
electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (37)
electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (66)
electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (183)
Needed to win: 270
Nov. 15 Election results RSS

News from the Votemaster

The election may not be quite as finished as most people think. Take a look at this article about recounts and strategy. It may explain why Kerry has been so silent of late--he is letting others do the heavy lifting. If the expected recount of New Hampshire turns up serious problems, especially with voting machines, there will be demands for recounts elsewhere. Even if it doesn't change the result, this exercise could convince people that maybe now it is time to get serious about devising an electoral system in which every eligible voter can vote and every vote counts. We are still very far from that goal and it is a national disgrace.

In addition to the recount in New Hampshire (which Kerry won), the Libertarian and Green parties intend to file for recounts, starting in Ohio. There are two reasons to ask for recounts. First, the exit polls, which historically have been quite accurate, differ from the tallied results by more than could be expected by chance alone. Second, there are issues about the invalidated, provisional, and absentee ballots. Once the results have been certified, which could be as early as tomorrow in some states, the paper ballots are destroyed and the computer memories are cleared unless a recount has been formally requested.

In Ohio, requesting a recount there costs $10 per precinct or about $113,600 for the whole state. If you want to contribute, click here for the announcement. I was unable to get through to the actual contribution site at 5 a.m. EST Sunday morning. I don't know why, but I doubt it was due to their being swamped with traffic. You might have to call the Libertarian or Green Parties if you can't get through.

It would nice if the mainstream media were more interested in getting a complete and accurate count of all the votes, but they don't seem to be.

An analysis of the pollsters can now be found on the Compare the pollsters page. Take a look to see who gets an A+ and who gets an F.

The LA Times has an article comparing the election results to those of previous ones in which an incumbent president ran. By historical standards, this was an incredibly close contest.

New Senate: 44 Democrats, 55 Republicans, 1 independent
This site has far more about the election than just the map. See the Welcome page for more details.

-- The votemaster

WWW www.electoral-vote.com

Statistics Collector (via University of Kentucky)