Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 243   Bush 257

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electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (88)
electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (100)
electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (55)
electoral college tied Exactly tied (38)
electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (35)
electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (84)
electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (138)
Needed to win: 270
Oct. 16 New polls: AL FL GA MI MN NJ OK RSS

News from the Votemaster

The race is starting to tighten as the effects of the third debate are now kicking in. Kerry has regained his lead in New Jersey albeit by only 2% according to a new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. More important, we now have Florida as an exact tie. A strategic Vision (R) poll taken Oct. 12-14, puts Bush ahead by 4%, 49% to 45%. But an Insider Advantage poll, also taken Oct 12-14 puts Kerry ahead by 4%, 48% to 44%. I guess we could use the Oct. 4-10 Washington Post poll of Florida to break the tie, but unfortunately it says Florida is 47% to 47%. It will probably be a real squeaker again in Florida. The results could depend on the turnout and in which counties the most voting machines fail.

Theresa "Butterfly Ballot" LePore, the outgoing Palm Beach County, FL Supervisor of Elections, is in the news again. Her test of the new electronic voting machines to be used on Nov. 2 had to be postponed because the server crashed. She blamed it on the the hurricanes that have lashed Florida this season. Still, it is troubling to know that just over two weeks from election day, some of the Florida voting equipment has not even been tested yet. Far more worrisome is that these machines have no way to do recounts in close elections, as required by Florida law. What happens when the law requires something that is impossible? When in doubt, ask SCOTUS. Somebody probably will.

Frank Luntz, the top Republican pollster wrote in the Financial Times: "Step by step, debate-by-debate, John Kerry has addressed and removed many remaining doubts among uncommitted voters. My own polling research after each debate suggests a rather bleak outlook for the Bush candidacy: many who still claim to be 'undecided' are in fact leaning to Mr. Kerry and are about ready to commit." In a world where the spinmeisters constantly claim that their horse can not only walk on water, but also trot and gallop on it, having a top GOP strategist with access to real data say his horse is sinking fast is ominous for the Bush campaign. Read the whole story here.

In case anyone was sitting on the edge of his or her chair waiting for the first (and probably only) poll in the Vermont Senate race, you have to wait no longer. incumbent Patrick Leahy (D) is leading challenger Jack McMullen by more than 3 to 1. Cheney's swearing at Leahy on the floor of the Senate doesn't seem to be helping much. Currently the projected Senate will have 51 Republicans and 46 Democrats (including Jeffords) with Colorado, Florida, and South Dakota being exact ties.

Many people have asked me if there is a site about the House races. A reader pointed out www.ourcongress.com. It is more discussion than polls, but if you are interested in a particular House race, it is good place to start.

Finally, the server was attacked again yesterday, but seems to have survived better than last time. I have been talking to some of the best network security professionals in the country, and without getting into the details, I have been paying a lot of attention to their advice. I got a lot of mail this week from Republicans who have deplored the attacks on my servers and said that Republicans believe as strongly in free speech as they do in free markets. Thank you.

Projected Senate: 45 Democrats, 51 Republicans, 1 independent, 3 tossups
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-- The votemaster

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Statistics Collector (via University of Kentucky)