overseas voter, absentee ballot

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 252   Bush 270

Data in Excel format
Battleground states
Info about the states
Previous report
Next report


electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (109)
electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (107)
electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (36)
electoral college tied Exactly tied (16)
electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (88)
electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (40)
electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (142)
Needed to win: 270
Sept. 2 New polls: AL MI SD WI RSS

News from the Votemaster

The biggest news today is that Bush is going to win Alabama and South Dakota by landslides, 20% in the former and 16% in the latter. If he gets on the ballot. Technically, candidates have to file in Alabama before Aug. 31 and the Republicans didn't have a candidate by Aug. 31. Maybe they will make an exception this time. The consequence of this large lead, of course, is that neither candidate will spend any money in these states and probably won't visit, until they decide to stump for or against Tom Daschle in the SD Senate race.

Perhaps a bit more interesting are three new polls in battleground states in the Midwest. They are from Peter Hart (MN) and Lake Snell Perry (MI, WI), both of whom normally work for Democrats. It is instructive to compare their results to the Strategic Vision polls of of Aug. 28, just three days later than the Minnesota poll and the day before the Michigan and Wisconsin polls. Does the pollster matter? You be the judge.

Peter Hart, Aug. 25 (MN) and Lake Snell Perry, Aug. 29 (MI, WI)
State Kerry Bush Nader
Michigan 51 43 1
Minnesota 47 44 2
Wisconsin 49 45 2

Strategic Vision poll, Aug. 28
State Kerry Bush Nader
Michigan 45 42 3
Minnesota 47 46 1
Wisconsin 46 48 2

The Gallup Organization has a nice article giving 11 insights on the election.

I made a mistake with the dates of the Michigan and Wisconsin polls and made a rare midday correction. Sorry for the confusion.

To bookmark this page, type CTRL-D. If you are visiting for the first time, welcome. This site has far more about the election than just the map. See the Welcome page for more details.

-- The votemaster

WWW www.electoral-vote.com
overseas voter, absentee ballot