overseas voter, absentee ballot

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 301   Bush 213

Data in Excel format
Battleground states
Info about the states
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electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (149)
electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (82)
electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (70)
electoral college tied Exactly tied (24)
electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (56)
electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (23)
electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (134)
Needed to win: 270
Aug. 19 New polls: GA IA MO NV NM OH PA WA RSS

News from the Votemaster

Eight new polls today, six in key battleground states: Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, as well as Georgia and Washington. However, the lead changed in only two of them. Missouri has gone from a statistical tie with Kerry 1% ahead to a statistical tie with Bush 1% ahead. The results are still well within the margin of error though. It could go either way in November.

In contrast, New Mexico changed more. A new Rasmussen poll there has Bush and Kerry tied at 46% apiece. Kerry had a substantial lead there for a while, but it appears to be shrinking. The other polls confirm previous results.

The site has a new feature starting today: graphs of the state polls. The state polls have been available in table form for some time, but now they are also available in graph form.

Now a complete change of pace. When I started this site, I wasn't sure if it would become popular at all. There were 72,000 visitors yesterday, so I guess the answer is yes. I have paid for the entire site myself and rejected numerous offers of paid ads because I want to make it clear who I am working hard for--the readers, not the advertisers. I have decided that it would be a good thing to get more readers since the media keep yelling "It's a tie; it's a tie" when Kerry has had a substantial lead for six consecutive weeks based on over 350 polls.

To get more readers, I would like to run more ads like the one that I am currently running on www.politicalwire.com. Ads on the popular political blogs like dailykos.com cost $375 to $900 a week depending on size and placement. Running ads on a dozen blogs and websites for a number of weeks begins to add up. For this reason I am now accepting donations. If you would like to contribute to making this site an even bigger success and spread the truth to more people, please consider making a donation. I am set up to use PayPal and the Amazon Honor System. Both are established Internet financial institutions with state-of-the-art security using encrypted connections. If you have an account with either one, just go to the donations page and read the instructions. A couple of clicks and the whole process takes maybe a minute. If you don't have an account with either one, you can still make secure credit card payment via PayPal, but it might take 5 minutes. You do not have to open an account with PayPal to donate. Needless to say, the site will remain free and operational until November, and probably until 2008 so that reseachers can play with the data after the election. Thank you for your support.

To get the dates and sources for the polling data, click on the Excel spreadsheet at the top right. To bookmark this page, type CTRL-D. To help publicize this website, please link to it to improve its Google PageRank and tell your friends about it.

-- The votemaster

WWW www.electoral-vote.com
overseas voter, absentee ballot