Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 312   Bush 226

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dark blue Strong Kerry (151)
light blue Weak Kerry (48)
white and blue Barely Kerry (113)
white Exactly tied (0)
white and red Barely Bush (45)
light red Weak Bush (51)
dark red Strong Bush (130)
June 7 New polls: LA WA

News from the Votemaster

A new poll in Louisiana confirms a trend that has been building for a while now. Bush's lead in the south is weakening. He is still ahead in LA, KY, and NC, but only in the single digits, while in AR, SC, and TN Bush's lead is within the polls' margin of error, somewhat surprising for an incumbent Republican. Bush's lead in AL, GA, MS, and VA is substantial and not in any danger now. Florida is a tossup; Kerry's lead there is meaningless.

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-- The votemaster