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Projected New Senate:     50 Democrats     49 Republicans     1 tie

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strong Dem Strong Dem (44)
weak Dem Weak Dem (4)
barely Dem Barely Dem (2)
tied Exactly tied (1)
barely GOP Barely GOP (1)
weak GOP Weak GOP (0)
strong GOP Strong GOP (48)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
Oct. 19 New polls: AZ MD ME MT RSS
  Pickups: Missouri Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

News from the Votemaster

If you are new to the site, welcome. Mousing over a state gives the latest polls and clicking on a state gives a graph of all the independent polls for that state. See the "Map algorithm explained" link for the formulas used. Please click on the 18 links with icons below the map. They contain a wealth of information, including descriptions of all 33 Senate races and the 50 most competitive House races (with candidates' photos, home pages, Wikipedia entries, and more), the complete polling data, ratings of the senators, historical election trends, the all-time greatest senators, the money race, and a great deal more.

By clicking on the "Previous report" link to the right of the map, you can go back to previous pages. While the polls are old, much of the analysis is still valid (yesterday: Liddy Dole vs. Chuck Schumer, Tuesday: low-down on the 2008 Senate races, etc.)

Senate Polls

Four new Senate polls today, the most surprising one is in Maryland, where Rep. Ben Cardin (D) and Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) are deadlocked 46% to 46%. This result is surprising because three competing polls released in October have shown Cardin with leads of 7%, 8%, and 15%, respectively, and he has led all year. This poll may just be a statistical outlier. Let's wait for the next one before questioning this race.

The other Senate polls confirm what we already know: incumbent Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) leads businessman Jim Pederson (D) 51% to 42% in Arizona, incumbent Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) will defeat her Democratic challenger Jean Bright (D) in a landslide that may even dwarf Hillary's in New York, and state Senate president Jon Tester (D) now has an 11% lead over incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT). out in the Big Sky Country. As usual, incumbents are marked with asterisks.

State Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
Arizona Jim Pederson Jon Kyl* Oct 15 1 42% 51%   Rasmussen
Maine Jean Bright Olympia Snowe* Oct 17 1 24% 70%   Rasmussen
Maryland Ben Cardin Michael Steele Oct 17 3 46% 46%   SurveyUSA
Montana Jon Tester Conrad Burns* Oct 15 6 46% 35%   Montana State U.

House Polls

Over in the House, we have some unbelievable polls from RT Strategies/CD. In IL-08, Rep. Melissa Bean (D) has a lead of 3% as expected, but in IL-10, Mark Kirk (R) is leading Dan Seals (D) by only 2%. In 2004, the Republicans took this district by 28%.

Now over to New York, where some of the Foley action is taking place (Rep. Tom Reynolds in NY-26 knew about Foley a year ago and all he did was tell Speaker Hastert). In NY-19, John Hall (D) leads incumbent Sue Kelly (R) by 9%. She won her race by 34% in 2004. In NY-20, Kirsten Gillibrand (D) leads incumbent John Sweeney (R) by 13%. He won his race by 32% in 2004. In NY-25, Dan Maffei (D) is leading incumbent James Walsh by 8%. Walsh was unopposed in 2004. Finally, in NY-29, Eric Massa (D) is leading incumbent Randy Kuhl by 12%. Kuhl won by 10% in 2004. If these numbers hold, New York Republicans will be wiped off the map. Democrats: Don't break out the champagne yet. Republicans: Don't cry in your beer yet. These results are so far from the conventional wisdom that I want to see more polls from other pollsters in these districts before I really believe them.

That said, the LA Times has a story today about how the national Republicans are pouring a massive effort into ID-01, to save a district in which they got 68% of the vote in 2004. While you should take the RT Strategies polls in NY with a grain (or better yet, a metric ton) of salt, when the GOP has to send the big guns to Idaho to defend a lone congressional candidate, that says something.

Also, the Wall Street Journal, not generally known as a hotbed of liberalism, published a poll today saying the only 16% of the people approve of Congress and 75% disapprove. Such polls are not good news for incumbents.

Cong. Distr. Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
CO-04 Angie Paccione Marilyn Musgrave* Oct 17 3 38% 48%   SurveyUSA
IL-08 Melissa Bean* Dave McSweeney Oct 16 2 47% 44%   RT Strategies
IL-10 Daniel Seals Mark Kirk* Oct 16 2 44% 46%   RT Strategies
NY-19 John Hall Sue Kelly* Oct 16 2 49% 40%   RT Strategies
NY-20 Kirsten Gillibrand John Sweeney* Oct 16 2 54% 41%   RT Strategies
NY-25 Dan Maffei James Walsh* Oct 16 2 51% 43%   RT Strategies
NY-29 Eric Massa Randy Kuhl* Oct 16 2 52% 40%   RT Strategies
WA-08 Darcy Burner Dave Reichert* Oct 17 3 47% 50%   SurveyUSA


The NY Times reports widespread problems with voting machines, especially training elderly poll workers to manage them. But even with adequate worker training, the real problem is that they can be hacked, as numerous studies (e.g., Princeton's ) have shown. Do we really want 50 court cases resolving election disputes? The solution doesn't require rocket science, it merely requires the voting machine to print out a voter-readable ticket that is then deposited in a sealed ballot box in case a recount is needed. ATM machines print receipts. It is not hard to do.

Normally we don't track the 36 gubernatorial races, but many people have requested it so for this one time, here are the latest polls in each of the gubernatorial races. At present, Democrats lead in 19, Republicans in 17. The 14 states not holding a gubernatorial election this year break down as 8 Democrats and 6 Republicans, so if these results hold, the Democrats will control 27 state houses and the Republicans 23. Currently there are 22 Democratic governors and 28 Republican governors.

State Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Pollster
Alabama Lucy Baxley Bob Riley* Oct 18 3 36% 57% SurveyUSA
Alaska Tony Knowles Sarah Palin Oct 09 1 40% 47% Rasmussen
Arizona Janet Napolitano* Len Munsil Oct 16 3 56% 37% SurveyUSA
Arkansas Mike Beebe Asa Hutchinson Oct 08 1 50% 40% Rasmussen
California Phil Angelides Arnold Schwarzenegger* Oct 11 1 40% 49% Rasmussen
Colorado Bill Ritter Bob Beauprez Oct 05 3 50% 35% Mason-Dixon
Conn. John DeStefano Jodi Rell* Oct 11 2 32% 54% U. of Conn.
Florida Jim Davis Charlie Christ Oct 09 3 41% 54% SurveyUSA
Georgia Mark Taylor Sonny Perdue* Oct 16 3 30% 47% Insider Advantage
Hawaii Randy Iwase Linda Lingle* Sep 28 4 39% 47% Ward Research
Idaho Jerry Brady Butch Otter Sep 01 5 18% 42% Greg Smith
Illinois Rod Blagojevich* Judy Topinka Oct 15 1 44% 36% Rasmussen
Iowa Chet Culver Jim Nussle Oct 11 4 46% 39% Selzer
Kansas Kathleen Sebelius* Jim Barnett Sep 25 1 48% 39% Rasmussen
Maine John Baldacci* Chandler Woodcock Oct 17 1 44% 34% Rasmussen
Maryland Martin O'Malley Robert Ehrlich* Oct 10 1 50% 44% Rasmussen
Mass. Deval Patrick Kerry Healey Oct 11 2 46% 33% Suffolk U.
Michigan Jennifer Granholm* Dick DeVos Oct 12 3 51% 42% EPIC-MRA
Minnesota Mike Hatch Tim Pawlenty* Oct 11 6 46% 37% Star Tribune
Nebraska David Hahn Dave Heineman* Sep 20 1 18% 72% Rasmussen
Nevada Dina Titus Jim Gibbons Sep 21 3 36% 45% Mason-Dixon
New Hampshire John Lynch* Jim Coburn Sep 27 3 59% 31% Granite State Poll
New Mexico Bill Richardson* John Dendahl Sep 28 4 60% 28% Res. and Polling
New York Eliot Spitzer John Faso Oct 16 6 71% 22% Quinnipiac U.
Ohio Ted Strickland Ken Blackwell Sep 15 5 54% 29% NY Times
Oklahoma Brad Henry* ErnestIstook Sep 25 5 64% 33% SurveyUSA
Oregon Ted Kulonngoski* Ron Saxton Sep 29 10 37% 39% Riley Research
Pennsylvania Ed Rendell* Lynn Swann Oct 15 1 57% 40% Rasmussen
Rhode Island Charles Fogarty Donald Carcieri* Oct 04 1 44% 47% Rasmussen
South Carolina Tommy Moore Mark Sanford* Oct 16 3 41% 56% SurveyUSA
South Dakota Jack Billion Mike Rounds* Jul 26 3 27% 56% KELO
Tennessee Phil Bredesen* Jim Bryson Oct 09 3 63% 32% SurveyUSA
Texas Chris Bell Rick Perry* Oct 09 1 19% 34% Rasmussen
Vermont Scudder Parker Jim Douglas* Sep 14 1 38% 52% Rasmussen
Wisconsin Jim Doyle* Mark Green Oct 04 3 48% 42% Research 2000
Wyoming Dave Freudenthal* Ray Hunkins Oct 12 4 63% 30% Mason-Dixon

Projected New House*:     229 Democrats     202 Republicans     4 Ties
* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-01 AZ-08 CT-04 FL-13 FL-16 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 MN-06 NC-08 NC-11 NM-01 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 NY-25 NY-26 NY-29 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups:
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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