Projected New Senate: 49 Democrats 51 Republicans

	Strong Dem (43)
	Weak Dem (6)
	Barely Dem (0)
	Exactly tied (0)
	Barely GOP (3)
	Weak GOP (2)
	Strong GOP (46)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Oct. 25	New polls:	AZ MN MO MT NJ OH PA RI TN VA WA
	Pickups:	Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

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News from the Votemaster

Poll of the Day

In yesterday's poll on this site, an astounding 89% thought that the Democrats would get 218 seats or more in the House--a majority. For today's poll, "Help Bush" reflects a generalized support for the administration that is broader than any one issue. "Hurt Bush" is generalized distaste for the administration that is broader than any one issue.

I have changed the way congressional districts are hyperlinked. If you click on one of the 50 top CDs, you go to the race description on the hothouse.html page, with photos of the candidates, Wikipedia entries, etc. If you click on the CD name there, you go to the map. In lesser races, clicking on the CD name goes directly to the map. Practice here: competitive AZ-08 , not competitive CO-01.

Senate Polls

We have a whole boatload of Senate polls today. The details are below. My tentative conclusions. First, Menendez will probably hang onto New Jersey by the skin of his teeth (this conclusion in part because New Jersey hasn't elected a Republican senator in 30 years). Second, the Democrats will win Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Third, Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia are seesawing back and forth and are too close to call. All the polls have margins of error of about 3-4%, which means it takes a difference between the candidates of 6-8% to make the poll statistically significant. If you want to make a difference, you could make a contribution to your favorite candidate in MO, TN, or VA.

State	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem	GOP	Ind	Pollster
Arizona	Jim Pederson	Jon Kyl*	Oct 22	4	41%	47%		Arizona State U.
Minnesota	Amy Klobuchar	Mark Kennedy	Oct 23	3	55%	39%		SurveyUSA
Missouri	Claire McCaskill	Jim Talent*	Oct 24	4	45%	48%		SurveyUSA
Missouri	Claire McCaskill	Jim Talent*	Oct 23	4	45%	48%		LA Times
Missouri	Claire McCaskill	Jim Talent*	Oct 19	3	46%	43%		Mason-Dixon
Montana	Jon Tester	Conrad Burns*	Oct 19	3	46%	43%		Mason-Dixon
New Jersey	Bob Menendez*	Tom Kean, Jr.	Oct 23	4	45%	41%		LA Times
New Jersey	Bob Menendez*	Tom Kean, Jr.	Oct 21	4	45%	42%		Mason-Dixon
Ohio	Sherrod Brown	Mike DeWine*	Oct 23	4	47%	39%		LA Times
Ohio	Sherrod Brown	Mike DeWine*	Oct 20	3	48%	40%		Mason-Dixon
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey	Rick Santorum*	Oct 21	4	51%	39%		Mason-Dixon
Rhode Island	Sheldon Whitehouse	Lincoln Chafee*	Oct 20	3	48%	43%		Mason-Dixon
Tennessee	Harold Ford	Bob Corker	Oct 22	1	46%	47%		Rasmussen
Tennessee	Harold Ford	Bob Corker	Oct 23	4	44%	49%		LA Times
Tennessee	Harold Ford	Bob Corker	Oct 20	2	43%	45%		Mason-Dixon
Virginia	Jim Webb	George Allen*	Oct 23	4	47%	44%		LA Times
Virginia	Jim Webb	George Allen*	Oct 19	3	43%	47%		Mason-Dixon
Washington	Maria Cantwell*	Mike McGavick	Oct 19	3	52%	37%		Mason-Dixon

House Polls

We have four House polls and all are statistical ties. There are a couple of dozen House races that are too close to call. Events in the next two weeks could easily determine what happens.

Cong. Distr.	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem	GOP	Ind	Pollster
CT-04	Diane Farrell	Christopher Shays*	Oct 22	7	43%	43%		U. of Conn.
IN-09	Baron Hill	Mike Sodrel*	Oct 23	4	47%	43%		SurveyUSA
KY-04	Ken Lucas	Geoff Davis*	Oct 24	4	44%	46%		SurveyUSA
NM-01	Patricia Madrid	Heather Wilson*	Oct 19	3	45%	42%		Res. and Polling

Politics

A Democratic takeover of the House has a couple of consequences I have not seen discussed anywhere. First, Nancy Pelosi will become Speaker, which will make her the highest ranking Democrat in the country--even if the Democrats capture the Senate. The Speaker is second in line for the presidency, after the Veep. The majority leader of the Senate is not even on the list. After the Speaker comes the President pro tem of the Senate, currently Ted Stevens (R-AK) but will shift to Robert Byrd (D-WV) if the Democrats win the Senate. Pelosi is from San Francisco and is far more liberal than Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), a moderate Mormon. Also, Republicans will be hesitant to attack a nice Italian grandmother; people won't like it. Second, after a year of Pelosi running the House, the question of "Can a woman wield great political power well?" will have a more concrete answer. This may have consequences for 2008, when other women may be running for high office.

Projected New House*: 228 Democrats 205 Republicans 2 Ties

* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-01 AZ-08 FL-13 FL-16 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 MN-06 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups:

See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.

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-- The Votemaster