News from the Votemaster
More New Hampshire polls. Starting tomorrow the poor people of New Hampshire can answer the phone without it being a pollster or a campaign. The polling data is below. Here are the averages for the post-Iowa polls:For the Democrats:
Barack Obama: 36.5%
Hillary Clinton: 29.8%
John Edwards: 19.0%
For the Republicans:
John McCain: 33.2%
Mitt Romney: 28.5%
Mike Huckabee: 11.3%
Rudy Giuliani: 9.1%
Fred Thompson: 2.5%
Barring something very unexpected, Barack Obama is heading towards a huge win and John McCain is heading towards a solid win. The main question is how many of the independents vote in the Democratic race and how many choose to vote in the Republican race. They are allowed to pick either one.
Some of the election results for New Hampshire are already in! The hamlet of Dixville Notch opens its polls at midnight and closes them as soon as all 17 voters have voted, which generally occurs at 12:01 a.m. Here are the results: Obama 70%, Edwards 20%, Richardson 10% (total of 10 votes). On the Republican side: McCain 57%, Romney 29%, Giuliani 14% (7 votes). Historically, Dixville Notch independents tend to vote in the Republican primary, but this year they switched to the Democratic side. This could be good news for Obama and bad news for McCain if it happens statewide.
The next big battle after New Hampshire will probably be in South Carolina, although Michigan (Jan. 15) and Nevada (Jan. 19) go first. Two new polls are in for South Carolina. Rasmussen gives Obama a 12% lead there and SurveyUSA says it is 20%. And that is before the New Hampshire results are in. Another win by Obama in NH will only help him more in South Carolina. On the Republican side Huckabee is at 28% (vs. McCain 21% and Romney 15%) in the Rasmussen survey. In the SurveyUSA poll, Huckabee is at 36% (vs. McCain 17% and Romney 19%). But a McCain win in NH will no doubt help him in SC.
A new Gallup poll now shows Obama and Clinton tied nationally at 33% each. This is a stunning change from a week ago, when Clinton had a 20% lead. It vanished overnight as a result of the Iowa caucuses. Having all the states move their primaries and caucuses up to January and February in an effort to reduce the influence of Iowa doesn't seem to be working.
The same Gallup national poll shows Mike Huckabee leading the GOP race. Huckabee has 25% to Rudy Giuliani's 20%, McCain's 19%, Fred Thompson's 12%, and Mitt Romney's 9%. Of course, Obama and McCain wins in NH will help them even more. A battle between Huckabee and any of the others will fracture the Republican party badly. The evangelicals, which are a core constituency, finally have a candidate who is truly one of them, not a tax-cutter who panders to them just before elections. They will not be pleased if he loses out, although they might be content with him as the Veep candidate. On the other hand, the tax-cutters don't want to have anything to do with Huckabee, who raised taxes in Arkansas. They might tolerate him as Veep though on a McCain-Huckabee ticket. Huckabee would probably be a Veep in the tradition of John Nance Garner. Garner was Veep under FDR; his most famous remark was: "The Vice Presidency is not worth a bucket of warm piss." Dick Cheney probably wouldn't second that.
-- The Votemaster