Jan. 11 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Electoral vote here
Senate score will go here
House score will go here

REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES 2008 Click for Democratic primaries and caucuses

Senate map with polls
Downloadable polling data
Previous report
Next report

Early states Already completed
Early states Before February 5
February 5 February 5
Late states After February 5

News from the Votemaster

Pollster Scott Rasmussen also has a story on what went wrong with the New Hampshire polls on Hillary Clinton (the Republican polls were right on the nose and the Obama polling was also right on). Why did Clinton do 10% better than expected? Rasmussen says that his polling showed that 38% of the voters made up their minds in the last three days, an unusually large number. He also says the he polled on Monday (which nobody else did) and saw the race tightening up considerably. He also believes the Clinton get-out-the-vote operation was extremely effective. Finally, he knows that trying to determine who will vote in a primary is always difficult, but that at the last minute large numbers of women decided to vote to support the only woman ever to be a serious candidate for President.

Andrew Kohut, President of the Pew Research Center, has a different explanation. He believes that the refusal rate among poor whites is much higher than among well-off whites and that poor whites tend to have more prejudice against black people than do well-off whites. If this is true, it could explain why all the pollsters got it wrong: poor whites did not want to participate in surveys and were undersampled. The main problem with this reasoning is that it is hard to see why poor whites were willing to talk to the pollsters in Iowa but not in New Hampshire. Rasmussen's story seems more plausible: there really was a lot of movement in the last day or two.

The Daily Irrelevant has a great photo relating to the New Hampshire election.

Bill Richardson has given up his quest for the White House. He didn't do a very good job at it. The big question now is he going to run for Pete Domenici's open Senate seat. If he does, he will face a fierce primary challenge from Rep. Tom Udall. On the other hand, he could endorse Hillary Clinton and hope she offers him a job, as her husband did (he was Bill's ambassador to the United Nations and later Secretary of Energy). He is extremely popular in New Mexico, a key swing state, and if he campaigns hard for her there and brings in the state (and maybe some of the neighboring states like Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado), surely Hillary would be very grateful.

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com